A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.

Background: Aedes (Stegomyia)-borne diseases are an expanding global threat, but gaps in surveillance make comprehensive and comparable risk assessments challenging. Geostatistical models combine data from multiple locations and use links with environmental and socioeconomic factors to make predictive risk maps. Here we systematically review past approaches to map risk for different Aedes-borne arboviruses from local to global scales, identifying differences and similarities in the data types, covariates, and modelling approaches used.

Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

Background: The importance of infectious disease epidemic forecasting and prediction research is underscored by decades of communicable disease outbreaks, including COVID-19. Unlike other fields of medical research, such as clinical trials and systematic reviews, no reporting guidelines exist for reporting epidemic forecasting and prediction research despite their utility. We therefore developed the EPIFORGE checklist, a guideline for standardized reporting of epidemic forecasting research.

Seasonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from South-East Asia into China, 2005-2015.

Due to worldwide increased human mobility, air-transportation data and mathematical models have been widely used to measure risks of global dispersal of pathogens. However, the seasonal and interannual risks of pathogens importation and onward transmission from endemic countries have rarely been quantified and validated. We constructed a modelling framework, integrating air travel, epidemiological, demographical, entomological and meteorological data, to measure the seasonal probability of dengue introduction from endemic countries.

Temperature modulates dengue virus epidemic growth rates through its effects on reproduction numbers and generation intervals.

Epidemic growth rate, r, provides a more complete description of the potential for epidemics than the more commonly studied basic reproduction number, R0, yet the former has never been described as a function of temperature for dengue virus or other pathogens with temperature-sensitive transmission. The need to understand the drivers of epidemics of these pathogens is acute, with arthropod-borne virus epidemics becoming increasingly problematic. We addressed this need by developing temperature-dependent descriptions of the two components of r-R0 and the generation interval-to obtain a temperature-dependent description of r.

Elevation as a proxy for mosquito-borne Zika virus transmission in the Americas.

Introduction: When Zika virus (ZIKV) first began its spread from Brazil to other parts of the Americas, national-level travel notices were issued, carrying with them significant economic consequences to affected countries. Although regions of some affected countries were likely unsuitable for mosquito-borne transmission of ZIKV, the absence of high quality, timely surveillance data made it difficult to confidently demarcate infection risk at a sub-national level. In the absence of reliable data on ZIKV activity, a pragmatic approach was needed to identify subnational geographic areas where the risk of ZIKV infection via mosquitoes was expected to be negligible.

Global distribution and environmental suitability for chikungunya virus, 1952 to 2015.

Chikungunya fever is an acute febrile illness caused by the chikungunya virus (CHIKV), which is transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes. Although chikungunya fever is rarely fatal, patients can experience debilitating symptoms that last from months to years. Here we comprehensively assess the global distribution of chikungunya and produce high-resolution maps, using an established modelling framework that combines a comprehensive occurrence database with bespoke environmental correlates, including up-to-date Aedes distribution maps.

The influence of vasovagal response on the coagulation system.

Background: Vasovagal response (VVR) is provoked by a reduced venous blood return to the heart as a reaction to orthostatic stress and to haemorrhage. Recently, two cases were reported showing elevated plasma concentration of von-Willebrand-factor (VWF) and factor VIII (FVIII) after VVR due to venapuncture. Although the effect of epinephrine as trigger for VWF liberation is known, a connection between VVR and activation of the coagulation system has not been studied systematically.

Comorbidity and boundaries of affective disorders with anxiety disorders and substance misuse: results of an international task force.

Associations between affective disorders, anxiety disorders, and substance use disorders were examined in epidemiological studies conducted in Germany, Switzerland, Puerto Rico, and the mainland US. There was a remarkable degree of similarity across studies in the magnitude and type of specific disorders associated with the affective disorders. Comorbidity with affective disorders was greater for the anxiety disorders than for substance misuse.