Rethinking the Role of Teams and Training in Geopolitical Forecasting: The Effect of Uncontrolled Method Variance on Statistical Conclusions.

Using data from a geopolitical forecasting tournament, Mellers et al. (2014) [Psychological strategies for winning a geopolitical forecasting tournament. , 1106-1115] concluded that forecasting ability was improved by allowing participants to work in teams and providing them with probability training.

Strength of Belief Guides Information Foraging.

Theories of how people value and search for information share the assumption that beliefs give rise to the perceived value of information. However, few studies have directly addressed the pre-search processes that influence information-foraging behavior. This experiment examined the influence of pre-search belief updating on the perceived value of information sources.

Effects of delayed weather radar images on pilots' spatial awareness.

Data-linked Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) images can be delayed up to 20 min in the cockpit. Pilots' underappreciating or ignoring the time delay may be the major cause of two fatal accidents. No studies have connected spatial awareness with accidents.

Nature and Children's Health: A Systematic Review.

Context: Daily outdoor play is encouraged by the American Academy of Pediatrics. Existing evidence is unclear on the independent effect of nature exposures on child health.

Objective: We systematically evaluated evidence regarding the relationship between nature contact and children's health.

Characteristics of free air carbon dioxide enrichment of a northern temperate mature forest.

In 2017, the Birmingham Institute of Forest Research (BIFoR) began to conduct Free Air Carbon Dioxide Enrichment (FACE) within a mature broadleaf deciduous forest situated in the United Kingdom. BIFoR FACE employs large-scale infrastructure, in the form of lattice towers, forming 'arrays' which encircle a forest plot of ~30 m diameter. BIFoR FACE consists of three treatment arrays to elevate local CO concentrations (e[CO ]) by +150 µmol/mol.

Long-term serial position effects in cue-based inference.

An important theoretical question in decision making concerns the nature of cue-generation: What mechanism drives the generation of cues used to make inferences? Most models of decision making assume that the properties of cues, often cue validity, initiate a set of dynamic pre-decision processes. In two studies, we test how memory accessibility affects cue use by manipulating both ecological cue validity and cue accessibility in a stock-forecasting task. Cue accessibility was manipulated by the pattern of accurate cue discriminations within experiment blocks of the learning phase of the experiments.

Determination of velocity correction factors for real-time air velocity monitoring in underground mines.

When there are installations of air velocity sensors in the mining industry for real-time airflow monitoring, a problem exists with how the monitored air velocity at a fixed location corresponds to the average air velocity, which is used to determine the volume flow rate of air in an entry with the cross-sectional area. Correction factors have been practically employed to convert a measured centerline air velocity to the average air velocity. However, studies on the recommended correction factors of the sensor-measured air velocity to the average air velocity at cross sections are still lacking.

Atmospheric Sampling on Ascension Island Using Multirotor UAVs.

As part of an NERC-funded project investigating the southern methane anomaly, a team drawn from the Universities of Bristol, Birmingham and Royal Holloway flew small unmanned multirotors from Ascension Island for the purposes of atmospheric sampling. The objective of these flights was to collect air samples from below, within and above a persistent atmospheric feature, the Trade Wind Inversion, in order to characterise methane concentrations and their isotopic composition. These parameters allow the methane in the different air masses to be tied to different source locations, which can be further analysed using back trajectory atmospheric computer modelling.

Order-constrained linear optimization.

Despite the fact that data and theories in the social, behavioural, and health sciences are often represented on an ordinal scale, there has been relatively little emphasis on modelling ordinal properties. The most common analytic framework used in psychological science is the general linear model, whose variants include ANOVA, MANOVA, and ordinary linear regression. While these methods are designed to provide the best fit to the metric properties of the data, they are not designed to maximally model ordinal properties.

Does constraining memory maintenance reduce visual search efficiency?

We examine whether constraining memory retrieval processes affects performance in a cued recall visual search task. In the visual search task, participants are first presented with a memory prompt followed by a search array. The memory prompt provides diagnostic information regarding a critical aspect of the target (its colour).

Black carbon solar absorption suppresses turbulence in the atmospheric boundary layer.

The introduction of cloud condensation nuclei and radiative heating by sunlight-absorbing aerosols can modify the thickness and coverage of low clouds, yielding significant radiative forcing of climate. The magnitude and sign of changes in cloud coverage and depth in response to changing aerosols are impacted by turbulent dynamics of the cloudy atmosphere, but integrated measurements of aerosol solar absorption and turbulent fluxes have not been reported thus far. Here we report such integrated measurements made from unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) during the CARDEX (Cloud Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Dynamics Experiment) investigation conducted over the northern Indian Ocean.

Model-data synthesis for the next generation of forest free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments.

The first generation of forest free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments has successfully provided deeper understanding about how forests respond to an increasing CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Located in aggrading stands in the temperate zone, they have provided a strong foundation for testing critical assumptions in terrestrial biosphere models that are being used to project future interactions between forest productivity and the atmosphere, despite the limited inference space of these experiments with regards to the range of global ecosystems. Now, a new generation of FACE experiments in mature forests in different biomes and over a wide range of climate space and biodiversity will significantly expand the inference space.

Using a model of hypothesis generation to predict eye movements in a visual search task.

We used a model of hypothesis generation (called HyGene; Thomas, Dougherty, Sprenger, & Harbison, 2008) to make predictions regarding the deployment of attention (as assessed via eye movements) afforded by the cued recall of target characteristics before the onset of a search array. On each trial, while being eyetracked, participants were first presented with a memory prompt that was diagnostic regarding the target's color in a subsequently presented search array. We assume that the memory prompts led to the generation of hypotheses (i.

Reply to Rouder (2014): good frequentist properties raise confidence.

Established psychological results have been called into question by demonstrations that statistical significance is easy to achieve, even in the absence of an effect. One often-warned-against practice, choosing when to stop the experiment on the basis of the results, is guaranteed to produce significant results. In response to these demonstrations, Bayes factors have been proposed as an antidote to this practice, because they are invariant with respect to how an experiment was stopped.

What counts as evidence for working memory training? Problems with correlated gains and dichotomization.

The question of whether computerized cognitive training leads to generalized improvements of intellectual abilities has been a popular, yet contentious, topic within both the psychological and neurocognitive literatures. Evidence for the effective transfer of cognitive training to nontrained measures of cognitive abilities is mixed, with some studies showing apparent successful transfer, while others have failed to obtain this effect. At the same time, several authors have made claims about both successful and unsuccessful transfer effects on the basis of a form of responder analysis, an analysis technique that shows that those who gain the most on training show the greatest gains on transfer tasks.

Explicit awareness supports conditional visual search in the retrieval guidance paradigm.

In four experiments we explored whether participants would be able to use probabilistic prompts to simplify perceptually demanding visual search in a task we call the retrieval guidance paradigm. On each trial a memory prompt appeared prior to (and during) the search task and the diagnosticity of the prompt(s) was manipulated to provide complete, partial, or non-diagnostic information regarding the target's color on each trial (Experiments 1-3). In Experiment 1 we found that the more diagnostic prompts was associated with faster visual search performance.

When decision heuristics and science collide.

The ongoing discussion among scientists about null-hypothesis significance testing and Bayesian data analysis has led to speculation about the practices and consequences of "researcher degrees of freedom." This article advances this debate by asking the broader questions that we, as scientists, should be asking: How do scientists make decisions in the course of doing research, and what is the impact of these decisions on scientific conclusions? We asked practicing scientists to collect data in a simulated research environment, and our findings show that some scientists use data collection heuristics that deviate from prescribed methodology. Monte Carlo simulations show that data collection heuristics based on p values lead to biases in estimated effect sizes and Bayes factors and to increases in both false-positive and false-negative rates, depending on the specific heuristic.

Using the memory activation capture (MAC) procedure to investigate the temporal dynamics of hypothesis generation.

Research investigating top-down capture has demonstrated a coupling of working memory content with attention and eye movements. By capitalizing on this relationship, we have developed a novel methodology, called the memory activation capture (MAC) procedure, for measuring the dynamics of working memory content supporting complex cognitive tasks (e.g.

A market price for organs?

Has not the time fully come to lift the prohibition on a regulated market in organs for transplantation? Is there a price for such a market that would be too high to pay? The author revisits the cases for and against organ markets in the light of cultural shifts in society and asks whether the traditional insistence on altruism represents a hindrance to much needed developments or a safeguard for much valued public goods.

Working memory dynamics bias the generation of beliefs: the influence of data presentation rate on hypothesis generation.

Although temporal dynamics are inherent aspects of diagnostic tasks, few studies have investigated how various aspects of time course influence hypothesis generation. An experiment is reported that demonstrates that working memory dynamics operating during serial data acquisition bias hypothesis generation. The presentation rate (and order) of a sequence of serially presented symptoms was manipulated to be either fast (180 ms per symptom) or slow (1,500 ms per symptom) in a simulated medical diagnosis task.

Catching a glimpse of working memory: top-down capture as a tool for measuring the content of the mind.

This article outlines a methodology for probing working memory (WM) content in high-level cognitive tasks (e.g., decision making, problem solving, and memory retrieval) by capitalizing on attentional and oculomotor biases evidenced in top-down capture paradigms.

Temporal dynamics of hypothesis generation: the influences of data serial order, data consistency, and elicitation timing.

The pre-decisional process of hypothesis generation is a ubiquitous cognitive faculty that we continually employ in an effort to understand our environment and thereby support appropriate judgments and decisions. Although we are beginning to understand the fundamental processes underlying hypothesis generation, little is known about how various temporal dynamics, inherent in real world generation tasks, influence the retrieval of hypotheses from long-term memory. This paper presents two experiments investigating three data acquisition dynamics in a simulated medical diagnosis task.

Robust decision making in a nonlinear world.

The authors propose a general modeling framework called the general monotone model (GeMM), which allows one to model psychological phenomena that manifest as nonlinear relations in behavior data without the need for making (overly) precise assumptions about functional form. Using both simulated and real data, the authors illustrate that GeMM performs as well as or better than standard statistical approaches (including ordinary least squares, robust, and Bayesian regression) in terms of power and predictive accuracy when the functional relations are strictly linear but outperforms these approaches under conditions in which the functional relations are monotone but nonlinear. Finally, the authors recast their framework within the context of contemporary models of behavioral decision making, including the lens model and the take-the-best heuristic, and use GeMM to highlight several important issues within the judgment and decision-making literature.

Implications of cognitive load for hypothesis generation and probability judgment.

We tested the predictions of HyGene (Thomas et al., 2008) that both divided attention at encoding and judgment should affect the degree to which participants' probability judgments violate the principle of additivity. In two experiments, we showed that divided attention during judgment leads to an increase in subadditivity, suggesting that the comparison process for probability judgments is capacity limited.

Contextual biases in the interpretation of auditory evidence.

Noisy recordings of dialogue often serve as evidence in criminal proceedings. The present article explores the ability of two types of contextual information, currently present in the legal system, to bias subjective interpretations of such evidence. The present experiments demonstrate that the general context of the legal system and the presence of transcripts of the recorded speech are both able to bias interpretations of degraded & benign recordings into interpretable & incriminating.