Updating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

Actuarial scales like the Static-99R are widely used to predict an individual's risk of sexual recidivism. However, current actuarial scales only provide rates of detected sex offenses over 10-year follow-up and do not account for all recidivism risk factors. Therefore, some forensic evaluators extrapolate, adjust, or override recidivism rates derived from actuarial scales to predict the lifetime risk of committed offenses that accounts for external risk factors, those not addressed by the actuarial scales.

Calculating Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

Risk is the probability of an adverse event or outcome. In a previous article, I compared the Bayesian and Frequentist models of defining probability. This article compares the Bayesian and regression models of quantifying probability.

The 2015 Static-99R: Alternative Recidivism Tables for High-Risk Offenders.

The Static-99R is an actuarial scale that is commonly used to assess the recidivism risk of male sex offenders. Hanson, Thornton, Helmus, and Babchishin recently revised the Static-99R norms based on revised analyses that excluded the large Bridgewater sample. As a result, the sample size of the high risk/high need (HR/HN) group was reduced substantially, which increased the confidence intervals around the predicted recidivism rates.

Defining Probability in Sex Offender Risk Assessment.

There is ongoing debate and confusion over using actuarial scales to predict individuals' risk of sexual recidivism. Much of the debate comes from not distinguishing Frequentist from Bayesian definitions of probability. Much of the confusion comes from applying Frequentist probability to individuals' risk.

Mental disorder, predisposition, prediction, and ability to control: evaluating sex offenders for civil commitment.

Nearly 20 years after the first sexually violent person (SVP) statutes were introduced in the United States, the civil commitment of sex offenders remains controversial. SVP laws require that a sex offender has a mental condition that predisposes them to commit sex offenses and poses a high risk to reoffend because of serious difficulty controlling behavior. The controversy over the commitment of sex offenders is fueled by different interpretations of those key constructs.

Diagnostic and risk profiles of men detained under Wisconsin's sexually violent person law.

Previous studies described the characteristics of individuals committed under sexual offender civil commitment laws in Arizona, Florida, and Washington. This study describes the diagnostic and risk profiles of 331 sexual offenders held under Wisconsin's sexual offender statute and compares them to the people held in those other states. Persons detained under Wisconsin's law substantially differ from those in the other states.

Clinical discriminations and neuropsychological tests: An appeal to bayes' theorem.

Neuropsychological tests are routinely used to make clinical judgements regarding the classification, diagnosis, or prediction of subject variables. The accuracy of those decisions depends on the discriminant validity of the tests used. The traditional method of validating psychological tests by comparing the mean test scores of reference groups is often unrelated to actual clinical discriminations.