Epidemiological drivers of transmissibility and severity of SARS-CoV-2 in England.

As the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progressed, distinct variants emerged and dominated in England. These variants, Wildtype, Alpha, Delta, and Omicron were characterized by variations in transmissibility and severity. We used a robust mathematical model and Bayesian inference framework to analyse epidemiological surveillance data from England.

Quantifying the effect of delaying the second COVID-19 vaccine dose in England: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: The UK was the first country to start national COVID-19 vaccination programmes, initially administering doses 3 weeks apart. However, early evidence of high vaccine effectiveness after the first dose and the emergence of the SARS-CoV-2 alpha variant prompted the UK to extend the interval between doses to 12 weeks. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effect of delaying the second vaccine dose in England.

Reproducible parallel inference and simulation of stochastic state space models using odin, dust, and mcstate.

State space models, including compartmental models, are used to model physical, biological and social phenomena in a broad range of scientific fields. A common way of representing the underlying processes in these models is as a system of stochastic processes which can be simulated forwards in time. Inference of model parameters based on observed time-series data can then be performed using sequential Monte Carlo techniques.

Non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccination, and the SARS-CoV-2 delta variant in England: a mathematical modelling study.

Background: England's COVID-19 roadmap out of lockdown policy set out the timeline and conditions for the stepwise lifting of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) as vaccination roll-out continued, with step one starting on March 8, 2021. In this study, we assess the roadmap, the impact of the delta (B.1.

Naomi: a new modelling tool for estimating HIV epidemic indicators at the district level in sub-Saharan Africa.

Introduction: HIV planning requires granular estimates for the number of people living with HIV (PLHIV), antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage and unmet need, and new HIV infections by district, or equivalent subnational administrative level. We developed a Bayesian small-area estimation model, called Naomi, to estimate these quantities stratified by subnational administrative units, sex, and five-year age groups.

Methods: Small-area regressions for HIV prevalence, ART coverage and HIV incidence were jointly calibrated using subnational household survey data on all three indicators, routine antenatal service delivery data on HIV prevalence and ART coverage among pregnant women, and service delivery data on the number of PLHIV receiving ART.

Emergent Shapes of Trait-Based Competition Functions from Resource-Based Models: A Gaussian Is Not Normal in Plant Communities.

AbstractIn community ecology, it is widely assumed that organisms with similar traits compete more intensely with one another for resources. This assumption is often encoded into theory and empirical tests via a unimodal competition function, which predicts that per capita competitive effect declines with separation in traits. Yet it remains unknown how well this function represents the true effect of traits on competitive outcomes, especially for long-lived plant communities, where lifetime fitness is difficult to estimate.

Key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions in the 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England.

We fitted a model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in care homes and the community to regional surveillance data for England. Compared with other approaches, our model provides a synthesis of multiple surveillance data streams into a single coherent modeling framework, allowing transmission and severity to be disentangled from features of the surveillance system. Of the control measures implemented, only national lockdown brought the reproduction number ( ) below 1 consistently; if introduced 1 week earlier, it could have reduced deaths in the first wave from an estimated 48,600 to 25,600 [95% credible interval (CrI): 15,900 to 38,400].

Leveraging community mortality indicators to infer COVID-19 mortality and transmission dynamics in Damascus, Syria.

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in substantial mortality worldwide. However, to date, countries in the Middle East and Africa have reported considerably lower mortality rates than in Europe and the Americas. Motivated by reports of an overwhelmed health system, we estimate the likely under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality in Damascus, Syria.

Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission.

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries have sought to control SARS-CoV-2 transmission by restricting population movement through social distancing interventions, thus reducing the number of contacts. Mobility data represent an important proxy measure of social distancing, and here, we characterise the relationship between transmission and mobility for 52 countries around the world. Transmission significantly decreased with the initial reduction in mobility in 73% of the countries analysed, but we found evidence of decoupling of transmission and mobility following the relaxation of strict control measures for 80% of countries.

State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States.

As of 1st June 2020, the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention reported 104,232 confirmed or probable COVID-19-related deaths in the US. This was more than twice the number of deaths reported in the next most severely impacted country. We jointly model the US epidemic at the state-level, using publicly available death data within a Bayesian hierarchical semi-mechanistic framework.

Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China.

Objectives: In this data collation study, we aimed to provide a comprehensive database describing the epidemic trends and responses during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) throughout the main provinces in China.

Methods: From mid-January to March 2020, we extracted publicly available data regarding the spread and control of COVID-19 from 31 provincial health authorities and major media outlets in mainland China. Based on these data, we conducted descriptive analyses of the epidemic in the six most-affected provinces.

Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions.

Background: After experiencing a sharp growth in COVID-19 cases early in the pandemic, South Korea rapidly controlled transmission while implementing less stringent national social distancing measures than countries in Europe and the USA. This has led to substantial interest in their "test, trace, isolate" strategy. However, it is important to understand the epidemiological peculiarities of South Korea's outbreak and characterise their response before attempting to emulate these measures elsewhere.

Anonymised and aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests that initial compliance with COVID-19 social distancing interventions was high and geographically consistent across the UK.

Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which have resulted in reduced mobility across different regions. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for actual population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility. Here, we use two mobile phone-based datasets (anonymised and aggregated crowd level data from O2 and from the Facebook app on mobile phones) to assess changes in average mobility, both overall and broken down into high and low population density areas, and changes in the distribution of journey lengths.

Potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study.

Background: COVID-19 has the potential to cause substantial disruptions to health services, due to cases overburdening the health system or response measures limiting usual programmatic activities. We aimed to quantify the extent to which disruptions to services for HIV, tuberculosis, and malaria in low-income and middle-income countries with high burdens of these diseases could lead to additional loss of life over the next 5 years.

Methods: Assuming a basic reproduction number of 3·0, we constructed four scenarios for possible responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: no action, mitigation for 6 months, suppression for 2 months, or suppression for 1 year.

Datastorr: a workflow and package for delivering successive versions of 'evolving data' directly into R.

The sharing and re-use of data has become a cornerstone of modern science. Multiple platforms now allow easy publication of datasets. So far, however, platforms for data sharing offer limited functions for distributing and interacting with evolving datasets- those that continue to grow with time as more records are added, errors fixed, and new data structures are created.

Partitioning mortality into growth-dependent and growth-independent hazards across 203 tropical tree species.

Tree death drives population dynamics, nutrient cycling, and evolution within plant communities. Mortality variation across species is thought to be influenced by different factors relative to variation within species. The unified model provided here separates mortality rates into growth-dependent and growth-independent hazards.

How functional traits influence plant growth and shade tolerance across the life cycle.

Plant species differ in many functional traits that drive differences in rates of photosynthesis, biomass allocation, and tissue turnover. However, it remains unclear how-and even if-such traits influence whole-plant growth, with the simple linear relationships predicted by existing theory often lacking empirical support. Here, we present a theoretical framework for understanding the effect of diverse functional traits on plant growth and shade tolerance by extending a widely used model, linking growth rate in seedlings with a single leaf trait, to explicitly include influences of size, light environment, and five prominent traits: seed mass, height at maturation, leaf mass per unit leaf area, leaf nitrogen per unit leaf area, and wood density.

Shedding light on the 'dark side' of phylogenetic comparative methods.

Phylogenetic comparative methods are becoming increasingly popular for investigating evolutionary patterns and processes. However, these methods are not infallible - they suffer from biases and make assumptions like all other statistical methods.Unfortunately, although these limitations are generally well known in the phylogenetic comparative methods community, they are often inadequately assessed in empirical studies leading to misinterpreted results and poor model fits.

Model Adequacy and the Macroevolution of Angiosperm Functional Traits.

Making meaningful inferences from phylogenetic comparative data requires a meaningful model of trait evolution. It is thus important to determine whether the model is appropriate for the data and the question being addressed. One way to assess this is to ask whether the model provides a good statistical explanation for the variation in the data.

Conspecific density modulates the effect of predation on dispersal rates.

Dispersal decisions underlie the spatial dynamics of metacommunities. Prey individuals may disperse to reduce the risk of either predation or starvation, and both of these risks may depend on conspecific density. Surprisingly, there is little theory examining how dispersal rates should change in response to the combined effects of predation and changes in conspecific density.

geiger v2.0: an expanded suite of methods for fitting macroevolutionary models to phylogenetic trees.

Summary: Phylogenetic comparative methods are essential for addressing evolutionary hypotheses with interspecific data. The scale and scope of such data have increased dramatically in the past few years. Many existing approaches are either computationally infeasible or inappropriate for data of this size.