Advanced illness index: Predictive modeling to stratify elders using self-report data.

Objectives: Develop a prediction model to identify persons who have an increased risk of dying within the next 36 months, in order to focus additional resources and assessment in areas related to advanced care planning.

Design: Retrospective study with a 3-year observation period.

Setting: Integrated, not-for-profit managed care organization.

Usefulness of a single item in a mail survey to identify persons with possible dementia: a new strategy for finding high-risk elders.

The objective of this study was to examine the characteristics of elderly persons who responded positively to a question about "severe memory problems" on a mailed health questionnaire yet were missed by the existing health risk algorithm to identify vulnerable elderly persons. A total of 324,471 respondents aged 65 and older completed a primary care health status questionnaire that gathered clinical information to quickly identify members with functional impairment, multiple chronic diseases, and higher medical care needs. The respondents were part of a large, integrated, not-for-profit managed care organization that implemented a model of care for elders using a uniform risk identification method across eight regions.