Projected land ice contributions to twenty-first-century sea level rise.

The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios and climate models, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models.

Understanding of Contemporary Regional Sea-Level Change and the Implications for the Future.

Global sea level provides an important indicator of the state of the warming climate, but changes in regional sea level are most relevant for coastal communities around the world. With improvements to the sea-level observing system, the knowledge of regional sea-level change has advanced dramatically in recent years. Satellite measurements coupled with in situ observations have allowed for comprehensive study and improved understanding of the diverse set of drivers that lead to variations in sea level in space and time.

GEOS-S2S Version 2: The GMAO High Resolution Coupled Model and Assimilation System for Seasonal Prediction.

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) has recently released a new version of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Sub-seasonal to Seasonal prediction (S2S) system, GEOS-S2S-2, that represents a substantial improvement in performance and infrastructure over the previous system. The system is described here in detail, and results are presented from forecasts, climate equillibrium simulations and data assimilation experiments. The climate or equillibrium state of the atmosphere and ocean showed a substantial reduction in bias relative to GEOS-S2S-1.

Inter-relationship between subtropical Pacific sea surface temperature, Arctic sea ice concentration, and North Atlantic Oscillation in recent summers.

The inter-relationship between subtropical western-central Pacific sea surface temperatures (STWCPSST), sea ice concentrations in the Beaufort Sea (SICBS), and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in summer are investigated over the period 1980-2016. It is shown that the Arctic response to the remote impact of the Pacific SST is more dominant in recent summers, leading to a frequent occurrence of the negative phase of the NAO following the STWCPSST increase. Lag-correlations of STWCPSST positive (negative) anomalies in spring with the negative (positive) NAO and SICBS loss (recovery) in summer have increased over the last two decades, reaching r = 0.

Intercomparison of Surface Temperatures from AIRS, MERRA, and MERRA-2, with NOAA and GC-Net Weather Stations at Summit, Greenland.

The surface skin and air temperatures reported by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder/Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AIRS/AMSU-A), the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA), and MERRA-2 at Summit, Greenland are compared with near surface air temperatures measured at National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Greenland Climate Network (GC-Net) weather stations. The AIRS/AMSU-A Surface Skin Temperature (TS) is best correlated with the NOAA 2 m air temperature (T2M) but tends to be colder than the station measurements. The difference may be the result of the frequent near surface temperature inversions in the region.

A Multilayer Surface Temperature, Surface Albedo and Water Vapor Product of Greenland from MODIS.

A multilayer, daily ice-surface temperature (IST)-albedo-water vapor product of Greenland, extending from March 2000 through December 2016, has been developed using standard MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data products from the Terra satellite. To meet the needs of the ice sheet modeling community, this new Earth Science Data Record (ESDR) is provided in a polar stereographic projection in NetCDF format, and includes the existing standard MODIS Collection-6.1 IST and derived melt maps, and Collection 6 snow albedo and water vapor maps, along with ancillary data, and is provided at a spatial resolution of ~0.

Direct measurements of meltwater runoff on the Greenland ice sheet surface.

Meltwater runoff from the Greenland ice sheet surface influences surface mass balance (SMB), ice dynamics, and global sea level rise, but is estimated with climate models and thus difficult to validate. We present a way to measure ice surface runoff directly, from hourly in situ supraglacial river discharge measurements and simultaneous high-resolution satellite/drone remote sensing of upstream fluvial catchment area. A first 72-h trial for a 63.

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2).

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) is the latest atmospheric reanalysis of the modern satellite era produced by NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). MERRA-2 assimilates observation types not available to its predecessor, MERRA, and includes updates to the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) model and analysis scheme so as to provide a viable ongoing climate analysis beyond MERRA's terminus. While addressing known limitations of MERRA, MERRA-2 is also intended to be a development milestone for a future integrated Earth system analysis (IESA) currently under development at GMAO.