Modelling the epidemiological and economic impact of digital adherence technologies with differentiated care for tuberculosis treatment in Ethiopia.

Background: Digital adherence technologies (DATs) with associated differentiated care are potential tools to improve tuberculosis (TB) treatment outcomes and reduce associated costs for both patients and healthcare providers. However, the balance between epidemiological and economic benefits remains unclear. Here, we used data from the ASCENT trial to estimate the potential long-term epidemiological and economic impact of DAT interventions in Ethiopia.

Impact of active case finding for tuberculosis with mass chest X-ray screening in Glasgow, Scotland, 1950-1963: An epidemiological analysis of historical data.

Background: Community active case finding (ACF) for tuberculosis was widely implemented in Europe and North America between 1940 and 1970, when incidence was comparable to many present-day high-burden countries. Using an interrupted time series analysis, we analysed the effect of the 1957 Glasgow mass chest X-ray campaign to inform contemporary approaches to screening.

Methods And Findings: Case notifications for 1950 to 1963 were extracted from public health records and linked to demographic data.

Subnational tuberculosis burden estimation for Pakistan.

Global tuberculosis (TB) burden estimates are aggregated at the national level, despite the likelihood of uneven distribution across and within regions in the same country. Subnational estimates are crucial to producing informed policies and informing budget allocation at more granular levels. In collaboration with the National TB Programme (NTP), we applied a simple and transparent tool to estimate the subnational TB burden in Pakistan.

Improving the contribution of mathematical modelling evidence to guidelines and policy: Experiences from tuberculosis.

We read with great interest the recent paper by Lo et al., who argue that there is an urgent need to ensure the quality of modelling evidence used to support international and national guideline development. Here we outline efforts by the Tuberculosis Modelling and Analysis Consortium, together with the World Health Organization Global Task Force on Tuberculosis Impact Measurement, to develop material to improve the quality and transparency of country-level tuberculosis modelling to inform decision-making.

Estimating the Impact of Tuberculosis Pathways on Transmission-What Is the Gap Left by Passive Case Finding?

Current passive case-finding policies have not resulted in the expected decline in tuberculosis incidence. Recognition of the variety of disease pathways experienced by individuals with tuberculosis highlights how many are not served by the current prevention and care system and how much transmission is missed.

Implications of subclinical tuberculosis for vaccine trial design and global effect.

Tuberculosis is a leading cause of death from an infectious agent globally. Infectious subclinical tuberculosis accounts for almost half of all tuberculosis cases in national tuberculosis prevalence surveys, and possibly contributes to transmission and might be associated with morbidity. Modelling studies suggest that new tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial health and economic effects, partly based on the assumptions made regarding subclinical tuberculosis.

Optimizing the cascade of prevention to protect people from tuberculosis: A potential game changer for reducing global tuberculosis incidence.

The provision of tuberculosis preventive treatment is one of the critical interventions to reduce tuberculosis incidence and ultimately eliminate the disease, yet we still miss appropriate tools for an impactful intervention and treatment coverage remains low. We used recent data, epidemiological estimates, and research findings to analyze the challenges of each step of the cascade of tuberculosis prevention that currently delay the strategy implementation. We addressed research gaps and implementation bottlenecks that withhold key actions in tuberculosis case finding, testing for tuberculosis infection, provision of preventive treatment with safer, shorter regimens and supporting people to complete their treatment.

Higher loss of livelihood and impoverishment in households affected by tuberculosis compared to non-tuberculosis affected households in Zimbabwe: A cross-sectional study.

Tuberculosis (TB) disproportionally affects poor people, leading to income and non-income losses. Measures of socioeconomic impact of TB, e.g.

Classification of early tuberculosis states to guide research for improved care and prevention: an international Delphi consensus exercise.

The current active-latent paradigm of tuberculosis largely neglects the documented spectrum of disease. Inconsistency with regard to definitions, terminology, and diagnostic criteria for different tuberculosis states has limited the progress in research and product development that are needed to achieve tuberculosis elimination. We aimed to develop a new framework of classification for tuberculosis that accommodates key disease states but is sufficiently simple to support pragmatic research and implementation.

Beyond latent and active tuberculosis: a scoping review of conceptual frameworks.

There is growing recognition that tuberculosis (TB) infection and disease exists as a spectrum of states beyond the current binary classification of latent and active TB. Our aim was to systematically map and synthesize published conceptual frameworks for TB states. We searched MEDLINE, Embase and EMcare for review articles from 1946 to September 2023.

Estimating the contribution of subclinical tuberculosis disease to transmission: An individual patient data analysis from prevalence surveys.

Background: Individuals with bacteriologically confirmed pulmonary tuberculosis (TB) disease who do not report symptoms (subclinical TB) represent around half of all prevalent cases of TB, yet their contribution to () transmission is unknown, especially compared to individuals who report symptoms at the time of diagnosis (clinical TB). Relative infectiousness can be approximated by cumulative infections in household contacts, but such data are rare.

Methods: We reviewed the literature to identify studies where surveys of infection were linked to population surveys of TB disease.

Higher loss of livelihood and impoverishment in households affected by tuberculosis compared to non-tuberculosis affected households in Zimbabwe: a cross-sectional study.

Introduction: Tuberculosis (TB) disproportionally affects poor people, leading to income and non-income losses. Measures of socioeconomic impact of TB, e.g.

The prevalence of tuberculosis infection among foreign-born Canadians: a modelling study.

Background: The prevalence of tuberculosis infection is critical to the design of tuberculosis prevention strategies, yet is unknown in Canada. We estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis infection among Canadian residents born abroad.

Methods: We estimated the prevalence of tuberculosis infection by age and year of migration to Canada for people from each of 168 countries by constructing country-specific and calendar year-specific trends for annual risk of infection using a previously developed model.

Treatment for radiographically active, sputum culture-negative pulmonary tuberculosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Background: People with radiographic evidence for pulmonary tuberculosis (TB), but negative sputum cultures, have increased risk of developing culture-positive TB. Recent expansion of X-ray screening is leading to increased identification of this group. We set out to synthesise the evidence for treatment to prevent progression to culture-positive disease.

Reevaluating progression and pathways following infection within the spectrum of tuberculosis.

Traditional understanding of the risk of progression from () infection to tuberculosis (TB) overlooks diverse presentations across a spectrum of disease. We developed a deterministic model of infection and minimal (pathological damage but not infectious), subclinical (infectious but no reported symptoms), and clinical (infectious and symptomatic) TB, informed by a rigorous evaluation of data from a systematic review of TB natural history. Using a Bayesian approach, we calibrated the model to data from historical cohorts that followed tuberculin-negative individuals to tuberculin conversion and TB, as well as data from cohorts that followed progression and regression between disease states, disease state prevalence ratios, disease duration, and mortality.

Recent Travel and Tuberculosis in Migrants: Data From a Low-Incidence Country.

Tuberculosis (TB) incidence rates among migrants are higher than those in low-incidence countries. We evaluated smear-positive, pulmonary TB notifications of foreign-born individuals, comparing time since arrival and time since last return travel to the country of origin. TB incidence suggests a time course consistent with recent infection during travel.

Impact of micro- and macronutrient status on the incidence of tuberculosis: An examination of an African cohort initiating antiretroviral therapy.

Macronutrient and micronutrient deficiencies are associated with tuberculosis (TB) incidence. However, evidence is limited on the impact of micronutrient (vitamins and minerals) supplementation among underweight individuals. We conducted a secondary data analysis of a randomised controlled trial of lipid nutritional supplements with and without high-dose vitamin and mineral supplementation (LNS-VM vs LNS) for underweight (Body Mass Index [BMI] <18.

Asymptomatic but infectious - The silent driver of pathogen transmission. A pragmatic review.

Throughout 2020, COVID-19 interventions prioritised symptomatic individuals despite growing evidence of pre-symptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. From the pandemic we have learned that global health is slow to quantify asymptomatic disease transmission and slow to implement relevant interventions. While asymptomatic infectious periods exist for nearly all pathogens, it is frequently ignored during case finding, and there are limited research efforts to understand its potential to drive small scale outbreaks, epidemics and pandemics.

Use of a Sustainable Livelihood Framework-Based Measure to Estimate Socioeconomic Impact of Tuberculosis on Households.

Tuberculosis (TB) disproportionally affects impoverished members of society. The adverse socioeconomic impact of TB on households is mostly measured using money-centric approaches, which have been criticized as one-dimensional and risk either overestimating or underestimating the true socioeconomic impacts of TB. We propose the use of the sustainable livelihood framework, which includes 5 household capital assets (human, financial, physical, natural, and social) and conceptualizes that households employ accumulative strategies in times of plenty and coping (survival) strategies in response to shocks such as TB.