Sub-monthly time scale forecasting of harmful algal blooms intensity in Lake Erie using remote sensing and machine learning.

Harmful algal blooms of cyanobacteria (CyanoHAB) have emerged as a serious environmental concern in large and small water bodies including many inland lakes. The growth dynamics of CyanoHAB can be chaotic at very short timescales but predictable at coarser timescales. In Lake Erie, cyanobacteria blooms occur in the spring-summer months, which, at annual timescale, are controlled by the total spring phosphorus (TP) load into the lake.

A Machine Learning Approach to Predict Watershed Health Indices for Sediments and Nutrients at Ungauged Basins.

Effective water quality management and reliable environmental modeling depend on the availability, size, and quality of water quality (WQ) data. Observed stream water quality data are usuallEEy sparse in both time and space. Reconstruction of water quality time series using surrogate variables such as streamflow have been used to evaluate risk metrics such as reliability, resilience, vulnerability, and watershed health (WH) but only at gauged locations.

Uncertainty quantification in reconstruction of sparse water quality time series: Implications for watershed health and risk-based TMDL assessment.

Despite the plethora of methods available for uncertainty quantification, their use has been limited in the practice of water quality (WQ) modeling. In this paper, a decision support tool (DST) that yields a continuous time series of WQ loads from sparse data using streamflows as predictor variables is presented. The DST estimates uncertainty by analyzing residual errors using a relevance vector machine.

Composite measures of watershed health from a water quality perspective.

Water quality data at gaging stations are typically compared with established federal, state, or local water quality standards to determine if violations (concentrations of specific constituents falling outside acceptable limits) have occurred. Based on the frequency and severity of water quality violations, risk metrics such as reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (R-R-V) are computed for assessing water quality-based watershed health. In this study, a modified methodology for computing R-R-V measures is presented, and a new composite watershed health index is proposed.

Aggregate Measures of Watershed Health from Reconstructed Water Quality Data with Uncertainty.

Risk-based measures such as reliability, resilience, and vulnerability (R-R-V) have the potential to serve as watershed health assessment tools. Recent research has demonstrated the applicability of such indices for water quality (WQ) constituents such as total suspended solids and nutrients on an individual basis. However, the calculations can become tedious when time-series data for several WQ constituents have to be evaluated individually.

A physical scaling model for aggregation and disaggregation of field-scale surface soil moisture dynamics.

Scaling relationships are needed as measurements and desired predictions are often not available at concurrent spatial support volumes or temporal discretizations. Surface soil moisture values of interest to hydrologic studies are estimated using ground based measurement techniques or utilizing remote sensing platforms. Remote sensing based techniques estimate field-scale surface soil moisture values, but are unable to provide the local-scale soil moisture information that is obtained from local measurements.

Watershed reliability, resilience and vulnerability analysis under uncertainty using water quality data.

A method for assessment of watershed health is developed by employing measures of reliability, resilience and vulnerability (R-R-V) using stream water quality data. Observed water quality data are usually sparse, so that a water quality time-series is often reconstructed using surrogate variables (streamflow). A Bayesian algorithm based on relevance vector machine (RVM) was employed to quantify the error in the reconstructed series, and a probabilistic assessment of watershed status was conducted based on established thresholds for various constituents.

A stochastic-advective transport model for NAPL dissolution and degradation in non-uniform flows in porous media.

Remediation schemes for contaminated sites are often evaluated to assess their potential for source zone reduction of mass, or treatment of the contaminant between the source and a control plane (CP) to achieve regulatory limits. In this study, we utilize a stochastic stream tube model to explain the behavior of breakthrough curves (BTCs) across a CP. At the local scale, mass dissolution at the source is combined with an advection model with first-order decay for the dissolved plume.

Bacterial adsorption and transport in saturated soil columns.

Microbial activities directly affect the environmental quality of water, soil, and sediments. To improve our understanding of microbial attachment and transport in the subsurface, experimental studies were performed to evaluate bacterial adsorption and transport in two types of soil, Smolan (27% clay) and Haynie (5.5% clay) soils.