Climate shocks and wealth inequality in the UK: evidence from monthly data.

This paper investigates both the linear and nonlinear effects of climate risk shocks on wealth inequality in the UK using the local projections (LPs) method, based on high-frequency, i.e., monthly data.

A new hybrid method with data-characteristic-driven analysis for artificial intelligence and robotics index return forecasting.

Forecasting returns for the Artificial Intelligence and Robotics Index is of great significance for financial market stability, and the development of the artificial intelligence industry. To provide investors with a more reliable reference in terms of artificial intelligence index investment, this paper selects the NASDAQ CTA Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (AIRO) Index as the research target, and proposes innovative hybrid methods to forecast returns by considering its multiple structural characteristics. Specifically, this paper uses the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method and the modified iterative cumulative sum of squares (ICSS) algorithm to decompose the index returns and identify the structural breakpoints.

The predictive power of Bitcoin prices for the realized volatility of US stock sector returns.

This paper is motivated by Bitcoin's rapid ascension into mainstream finance and recent evidence of a strong relationship between Bitcoin and US stock markets. It is also motivated by a lack of empirical studies on whether Bitcoin prices contain useful information for the volatility of US stock returns, particularly at the sectoral level of data. We specifically assess Bitcoin prices' ability to predict the volatility of US composite and sectoral stock indices using both in-sample and out-of-sample analyses over multiple forecast horizons, based on daily data from November 22, 2017, to December, 30, 2021.

Do U.S. economic conditions at the state level predict the realized volatility of oil-price returns? A quantile machine-learning approach.

Because the U.S. is a major player in the international oil market, it is interesting to study whether aggregate and state-level economic conditions can predict the subsequent realized volatility of oil price returns.

Temperature and precipitation in the US states: long memory, persistence, and time trend.

This paper investigates the time series properties of the temperature and precipitation anomalies in the contiguous USA by using fractional differentiation. This methodology allows to capture time trend components along with properties such as long-range dependence and the degree of persistence. For aggregated data, we find out that long memory is present in both precipitation and temperature since the integration order is significantly positive in the two cases.

Bayesian Spatial Modeling for Housing Data in South Africa.

Spatial process models are being increasingly employed for analyzing data available at geocoded locations. In this article, we build a hierarchical framework with multivariate spatial processes, where the outcomes are "mixed" in the sense that some may be continuous, some binary and others may be counts. The underlying idea is to build a joint model by hierarchically building conditional distributions with different spatial processes embedded in each conditional distribution.

Forecasting the realized variance of oil-price returns: a disaggregated analysis of the role of uncertainty and geopolitical risk.

We contribute to the empirical literature on the predictability of oil-market volatility by comparing the predictive role of aggregate versus several disaggregated metrics of policy-related and equity-market uncertainties of the USA and geopolitical risks for forecasting the future realized volatility of oil-price (WTI) returns over the monthly period from 1985:01 to 2021:08. Using machine-learning techniques, we find that adding the disaggregated metrics to the array of predictors improves the accuracy of forecasts at intermediate and long forecast horizons, and mainly when we use random forests to estimate our forecasting model.

Globalization, long memory, and real interest rate convergence: a historical perspective.

This paper investigates whether the real interest rate parity (RIRP) is valid during the three waves of globalizations that occurred in the last 150 years (1870-1914, 1944-1971, 1989 to the present). If any, these periods should favor RIRP, since globalization is a process where economies and financial markets become increasingly integrated into a global economic system. In contrast to the existing literature, we model the departures from RIRP as a long-term memory process and apply fractional integration methods on a sample of real interest rate differentials of seven developed countries: France, Germany, Holland, Italy, Japan, Spain, and the UK across the three globalization waves paired against the USA.

Global evidence of the COVID-19 shock on real equity prices and real exchange rates: A counterfactual analysis with a threshold-augmented GVAR model.

In this study, we offer a global perspective on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on financial markets using a multi-country Threshold-Augmented Global Vector Autoregressive Model of Chudik et al. (2020). We document a negative impact of the pandemic on real equity prices across countries (except the United States) and country groupings with the highest negative impact recorded in 2020Q2.

On the Dynamics of International Real-Estate-Investment Trust-Propagation Mechanisms: Evidence from Time-Varying Return and Volatility Connectedness Measures.

In this paper, we investigate the time-varying interconnectedness of international Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) markets using daily REIT prices in twelve major REIT countries since the Global Financial Crisis. We construct dynamic total, net total and net pairwise return and volatility connectedness measures to better understand systemic risk and the transmission of shocks across REIT markets. Our findings show that that REIT market interdependence is dynamic and increases significantly during times of heightened uncertainty, including the COVID-19 pandemic.

Time-varying impact of pandemics on global output growth.

This paper analyses the dynamic impact of uncertainty due to global pandemics (SARS, H5N1, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and COVID-19) on global output growth, using a TVP-SVAR model. We find that the negative effect of the coronavirus on the growth rate of output is unprecedented, with the emerging markets being the worst hit. We also find that since 2016, the comovement among the growth rates has increased significantly.

The predictive power of oil price shocks on realized volatility of oil: A note.

This paper examines the predictive power of oil supply, demand and risk shocks over the realized volatility of intraday oil returns. Utilizing the heterogeneous autoregressive realized volatility (HAR-RV) framework, we show that all shock terms on their own, and particularly financial market driven risk shocks, significantly improve the forecasting performance of the benchmark HAR-RV model, both in- and out-of-sample. Incorporating all three shocks simultaneously in the HAR-RV model yields the largest forecasting gains compared to all other variants of the HAR-RV model, consistently at short-, medium-, and long forecasting horizons.

Forecasting interest rate volatility of the United Kingdom: evidence from over 150 years of data.

This study examines the very short, short, medium and long-term forecasting ability of different univariate GARCH models of United Kingdom (UK)'s interest rate volatility, using a long span monthly data from May 1836 to June 2018. The main results show the relevance of considering alternative error distributions to the normal distribution when estimating GARCH-type models. Thus, we obtain that the Asymmetric Power ARCH (A-PARCH) models with skew generalized error distribution are the most accurate models when forecasting UK interest rates, while for the short, medium and long-term term forecasting horizons, GARCH models with generalized error distribution for the error term are the most accurate models in forecasting UK's interest rates.

Jumps beyond the realms of cricket: India's performance in One Day Internationals and stock market movements.

We examine the impact of the Indian cricket team's performance in one-day international cricket matches on return, realized volatility and jumps of the Indian stock market, based on intraday data covering the period of 30th October, 2006 to 31st March, 2017. Using a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test, we were able to detect evidence of predictability from wins or losses for primarily volatility and jumps, especially over the lower-quantiles of the conditional distributions, with losses having stronger predictability than wins. However, the impact on the stock return is weak and restricted towards the upper end of the conditional distribution.

Squelching of ETS2 transactivation by POU5F1 silences the human chorionic gonadotropin CGA subunit gene in human choriocarcinoma and embryonic stem cells.

The subunit genes encoding human chorionic gonadotropin, CGA, and CGB, are up-regulated in human trophoblast. However, they are effectively silenced in choriocarcinoma cells by ectopically expressed POU domain class 5 transcription factor 1 (POU5F1). Here we show that POU5F1 represses activity of the CGA promoter through its interactions with ETS2, a transcription factor required for both placental development and human chorionic gonadotropin subunit gene expression, by forming a complex that precludes ETS2 from interacting with the CGA promoter.

Efficacy and safety of suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid (Vorinostat) in the treatment of canine corneal fibrosis.

Objective: Study aims were to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the Food and Drug Administration-approved drug Vorinostat [suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid (SAHA)] in the treatment of canine corneal fibrosis using an in vitro model.

Methods: Healthy donor canine corneas were collected and used to generate primary canine corneal fibroblasts (CCFs) by growing cultures in minimal essential medium supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum. Canine corneal myofibroblasts, used as a model for corneal fibrosis, were produced by growing CCF cultures in serum-free medium containing transforming growth factor β1 (1 ng/mL).

Canine corneal fibroblast and myofibroblast transduction with AAV5.

Objective: The aims of this study were (1) to determine the efficacy of adeno-associated vector serotype 5 (AAV5) for delivering gene therapy to canine corneal fibroblasts (CCFs) and myofibroblasts (CCMs) using enhanced green fluorescent protein (GFP) marker gene and (2) to evaluate the cytotoxicity of AAV5 to CCFs and CCMs using an in vitro model.

Methods: Healthy donor canine corneas were used to generate primary CCFs by growing cultures in minimal essential medium supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum. Canine corneal myofibroblasts were produced by growing cultures in serum-free medium containing transforming growth factor β1 (1 ng/mL).

Mitomycin C: a promising agent for the treatment of canine corneal scarring.

Objective: To evaluate the safety and efficacy of mitomycin C (MMC) in prevention of canine corneal scarring.

Methods: With an in vitro approach using healthy canine corneas, cultures of primary canine corneal fibroblasts or myofibroblasts were generated. Primary canine corneal fibroblasts were obtained by growing corneal buttons in minimal essential medium supplemented with 10% fetal bovine serum.

Efficacious and safe tissue-selective controlled gene therapy approaches for the cornea.

Untargeted and uncontrolled gene delivery is a major cause of gene therapy failure. This study aimed to define efficient and safe tissue-selective targeted gene therapy approaches for delivering genes into keratocytes of the cornea in vivo using a normal or diseased rabbit model. New Zealand White rabbits, adeno-associated virus serotype 5 (AAV5), and a minimally invasive hair-dryer based vector-delivery technique were used.

Polyethylenimine-conjugated gold nanoparticles: Gene transfer potential and low toxicity in the cornea.

Unlabelled: This study examined the gene transfer efficiency and toxicity of 2-kDa polyethylenimine conjugated to gold nanoparticles (PEI2-GNPs) in the human cornea in vitro and rabbit cornea in vivo. PEI2-GNPs with nitrogen-to-phosphorus ratios of up to 180 exhibited significant transgene delivery in the human cornea without altering the viability or phenotype of these cells. Similarly, PEI2-GNPs applied to corneal tissues collected after 12 hours, 72 hours, or 7 days exhibited appreciable gold uptake throughout the rabbit stroma with gradual clearance of GNPs over time.

Decorin transfection suppresses profibrogenic genes and myofibroblast formation in human corneal fibroblasts.

Decorin, a small leucine-rich proteoglycan, is a natural inhibitor of transforming growth factor beta (TGFbeta). Myofibroblast and haze formation in the cornea have been attributed to TGFbeta hyperactivity released from corneal epithelium following injury to eye. This study tested the hypothesis that decorin-gene transfer inhibits TGFbeta-driven myofibroblast and haze formation in the cornea.

The role of homeobox protein distal-less 3 and its interaction with ETS2 in regulating bovine interferon-tau gene expression-synergistic transcriptional activation with ETS2.

Distal-less 3 (DLX3), a homeodomain transcription factor required for placental development in the mouse, modestly transactivates hCG-alpha subunit gene (hCGA) expression in human choriocarcinoma cells. Because hCG and interferon-tau (IFNT) are expressed in trophectoderm of primates and ruminants, respectively, we have tested the hypothesis that DLX3 regulates the genes for IFNT (IFNT). A bovine IFNT1 promoter (-457 to +66), linked to a luciferase (luc) reporter, was transactivated approximately 20-fold by overexpressing DLX3 in human JAr cells.

Combinatorial roles of protein kinase A, Ets2, and 3',5'-cyclic-adenosine monophosphate response element-binding protein-binding protein/p300 in the transcriptional control of interferon-tau expression in a trophoblast cell line.

In ruminants, conceptus interferon-tau (IFNT) production is necessary for maintenance of pregnancy. We examined the role of protein kinase A (PKA) in regulating IFNT expression through the activation of Ets2 in JAr choriocarcinoma cells. Although overexpression of the catalytic subunit of PKA or the addition of 8-bromo-cAMP had little ability to up-regulate boIFNT1 reporter constructs on their own, coexpression with Ets2 led to a large increase in gene expression.