Aversion to pragmatic randomised controlled trials: three survey experiments with clinicians and laypeople in the USA.

Objectives: Pragmatic randomised controlled trials (pRCTs) are essential for determining the real-world safety and effectiveness of healthcare interventions. However, both laypeople and clinicians often demonstrate experiment aversion: preferring to implement either of two interventions for everyone rather than comparing them to determine which is best. We studied whether clinician and layperson views of pRCTs for COVID-19, as well as non-COVID-19, interventions became more positive during the pandemic, which increased both the urgency and public discussion of pRCTs.

Experiment aversion among clinicians and the public - an obstacle to evidence-based medicine and public health.

Background: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are essential for determining the safety and efficacy of healthcare interventions. However, both laypeople and clinicians often demonstrate experiment aversion: preferring to implement either of two interventions for everyone rather than comparing them to determine which is best. We studied whether clinician and layperson views of pragmatic RCTs for Covid-19 or other interventions became more positive early in the pandemic, which increased both the urgency and public discussion of RCTs.

Life events sometimes alter the trajectory of personality development: Effect sizes for 25 life events estimated using a large, frequently assessed sample.

Objective: Personality changes across the life span. Life events, such as marriage, becoming a parent, and retirement, have been proposed as facilitating personality growth via the adoption of novel social roles. However, empirical evidence linking life events with personality development is sparse.

Prospection and delay of gratification support the development of calculated reciprocity.

Humans frequently benefit others strategically to elicit future cooperation. While such forms of calculated reciprocity are powerful in eliciting cooperative behaviors even among self-interested agents, they depend on advanced cognitive and behavioral capacities such as prospection (representing and planning for future events) and extended delay of gratification. In fact, it has been proposed that these constraints help explain why calculated reciprocity exists in humans and is rare or even absent in other animals.

Genetic and Environmental Factors of Non-Ability-Based Confidence.

Non-ability-based confidence is confidence in one's ability that is not calibrated to actual ability. Here, we examine what psychological factors are associated with possessing more or less confidence relative to one's ability and to what extent genetic and environmental processes contribute to these links. Using data from the Texas Twin Project ( = 1,588 participants, aged 7-15 years), we apply a latent variable residual approach to calculate non-ability-based confidence as self-rated confidence net of ability on standardized cognitive tests.

Childhood growth in math and reading differentially predicts adolescent non-ability-based confidence: An examination in the SECCYD.

Non-ability-based confidence is one of the most pervasive human psychological biases. It is a part of a family of confidence judgments, including overconfidence and metacognitive calibration accuracy, defined by a discrepancy between self-perception of ability and actual ability. Across many domains, most people exhibit some degree of miscalibration in their confidence.