Predicting the likelihood of future sexual recidivism: pilot study findings from a California sex offender risk project and cross-validation of the Static-99.

Pilot findings on 137 California sex offenders followed up over 10 years after release from custody (excluding cases in which legal jurisdiction expired) are presented. The sexual recidivism rate, very likely inflated by sample selection, was 31 percent at five years and 40 percent at 10 years. Cumulatively, markers of sexual deviance (multiple victim types) and criminality (prior parole violations and prison terms) led to improved prediction of sexual recidivism (receiver operating characteristic [ROC] = .