Quantifying the groundwater total contamination risk using an inclusive multi-level modelling strategy.

This paper investigates aggregated risks in aquifers, where risk exposures may originate from different contaminants e.g. nitrate-N (NO-N), arsenic (As), boron (B), fluoride (F), and aluminium (Al).

Investigating meteorological/groundwater droughts by copula to study anthropogenic impacts.

A critical understanding of the water crisis of Lake Urmia is the driver in this paper for a basin-wide investigation of its Meteorological (Met) droughts and Groundwater (GW) droughts. The challenge is to formulate a data-driven modelling strategy capable of discerning anthropogenic impacts and resilience patterns through using 21-years of monthly data records. The strategy includes: (i) transforming recorded timeseries into Met/GW indices; (ii) extracting their drought duration and severity; and (iii) deriving return periods of the maximum drought event through the copula method.

A study of uncertainties in groundwater vulnerability modelling using Bayesian model averaging (BMA).

Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) is used to study inherent uncertainties using the Basic DRASTIC Framework (BDF) for assessing the groundwater vulnerability in a study area related to Lake Urmia. BMA is naturally an Inclusive Multiple Modelling (IMM) strategy at two levels; at Level 1 multiple models are constructed and the paper constructs three AI (Artificial Intelligence) models, which comprise ANN (Artificial Neural Network), GEP (Gene Expression Programming), and SVM (Support Vector Machines) but their outputs are fed to the next level model; at Level 2, BMA combines ANN, GEP and SVM (the Level 1 models) to quantify their inherent uncertainty in terms of within and in-between model errors. The model performance is tested by using the nitrate-N concentrations measured for the aquifer.

An investigation to human health risks from multiple contaminants and multiple origins by introducing 'Total Information Management'.

A capability for aggregating risks to aquifers is explored in this paper for cases with sparse data exposed to anthropogenic and geogenic contaminants driven by poor/non-existent planning/regulation practices. The capability seeks 'Total Information Management' (TIM) under sparse data by studying hydrogeochemical processes, which is in contrast to Human Health Risk Assessment (HHRA) by the USEPA for using sample data and a procedure with prescribed parameters without deriving their values from site data. The methodology for TIM pools together the following five dimensions: (i) a perceptual model to collect existing knowledge-base; (ii) a conceptual model to analyse a sample of ion-concentrations to determine groundwater type, origin, and dominant processes (e.

An investigation into seasonal variations of groundwater nitrate by spatial modelling strategies at two levels by kriging and co-kriging models.

Nitrate pollution of groundwater through spatial models is investigated in this paper by using a sample of nitrate values at monitoring wells using the data from four seasons of a year, in which data are sparse. Two spatial modelling strategies are formulated at two levels, in which Strategy 1 comprises: three variations of kriging-based models (ordinary kriging, simple kriging and universal kriging), which are constructed at Level 1 to predict nitrate concentrations; and a Multiple Co-Kriging (MCoK) model is used at Level 2 to enhance the accuracy of the predictions. Strategy 2 is also at two levels but employs Indicator Kriging (IK) at Level 1 as a probabilistic spatial model to predict areas at risk of exceeding two thresholds of 37.

Continuous monitoring of suspended sediment concentrations using image analytics and deriving inherent correlations by machine learning.

The barriers for the development of continuous monitoring of Suspended Sediment Concentration (SSC) in channels/rivers include costs and technological gaps but this paper shows that a solution is feasible by: (i) using readily available high-resolution images; (ii) transforming the images into image analytics to form a modelling dataset; and (iii) constructing predictive models by learning inherent correlation between observed SSC values and their image analytics. High-resolution images were taken of water containing a series of SSC values using an exploratory flume. Machine learning is processed by dividing the dataset into training and testing sets and the paper uses the following models: Generalized Linear Machine (GLM) and Distributed Random Forest (DRF).

Mapping specific vulnerability of multiple confined and unconfined aquifers by using artificial intelligence to learn from multiple DRASTIC frameworks.

An investigation is presented to improve on the performances of the Basic DRASTIC Framework (BDF) and its variation by the Fuzzy-Catastrophe Framework (FCF), both of which provide an estimate of intrinsic aquifer vulnerabilities to anthropogenic contamination. BDF prescribes rates and weights for 7 data layers but FCF is an unsupervised learning framework based on a multicriteria decision theory by integrating fuzzy membership function and catastrophe theory. The challenges in the paper include: (i) the study area comprises confined and unconfined aquifers and (ii) Artificial Intelligence (AI) is used to run Multiple Framework (AIMF) in order to map specific vulnerability due to a specific contaminant.

Introducing a new framework for mapping subsidence vulnerability indices (SVIs): ALPRIFT.

Proof-of-concept (PoC) is presented for a new framework to serve as a proactive capability to mapping subsidence vulnerability of Shabestar plain of approximately 500km overlaying an important aquifer supporting a region renowned for diversity of agricultural products. This aquifer is one of 12 in East and West Azerbaijan provinces, Northwest Iran, which surround the distressed Lake Urmia, with its water table declined approximately 4m in between 2004 and 2014. The decline of water table in aquifers undermines their soil texture and structure by exposure to pressures under their weight and thereby induce or trigger land subsidence.

Introducing the risk aggregation problem to aquifers exposed to impacts of anthropogenic and geogenic origins on a modular basis using 'risk cells'.

Proof-of-concept is presented in this paper to a methodology formulated for indexing risks to groundwater aquifers exposed to impacts of diffuse contaminations from anthropogenic and geogenic origins. The methodology is for mapping/indexing, which refers to relative values but not their absolute values. The innovations include: (i) making use of the Origins-Source-Pathways-Receptors-Consequences (OSPRC) framework; and (ii) dividing a study area into modular Risk (OSPRC) Cells to capture their idiosyncrasies with different origins.

The problem of identifying arsenic anomalies in the basin of Sahand dam through risk-based 'soft modelling'.

An investigation is undertaken to identify arsenic anomalies at the complex of Sahand dam, East Azerbaijan, northwest Iran. The complex acts as a system, in which the impounding reservoir catalyses system components related to Origin-Source-Pathways-Receptor-Consequence (OSPRC) viewed as a risk system. This 'conceptual framework' overlays a 'perceptual model' of the physical system, in which arsenic with geogenic origins diffused into the formations through extensive fractures swept through the region during the Miocene era.

Mapping vulnerability of multiple aquifers using multiple models and fuzzy logic to objectively derive model structures.

Driven by contamination risks, mapping Vulnerability Indices (VI) of multiple aquifers (both unconfined and confined) is investigated by integrating the basic DRASTIC framework with multiple models overarched by Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The DRASTIC framework is a proactive tool to assess VI values using the data from the hydrosphere, lithosphere and anthroposphere. However, a research case arises for the application of multiple models on the ground of poor determination coefficients between the VI values and non-point anthropogenic contaminants.

Assessment of groundwater vulnerability using supervised committee to combine fuzzy logic models.

Vulnerability indices of an aquifer assessed by different fuzzy logic (FL) models often give rise to differing values with no theoretical or empirical basis to establish a validated baseline or to develop a comparison basis between the modeling results and baselines, if any. Therefore, this research presents a supervised committee fuzzy logic (SCFL) method, which uses artificial neural networks to overarch and combine a selection of FL models. The indices are expressed by the widely used DRASTIC framework, which include geological, hydrological, and hydrogeological parameters often subject to uncertainty.

Groundwater vulnerability indices conditioned by Supervised Intelligence Committee Machine (SICM).

This research presents a Supervised Intelligent Committee Machine (SICM) model to assess groundwater vulnerability indices of an aquifer. SICM uses Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to overarch three Artificial Intelligence (AI) models: Support Vector Machine (SVM), Neuro-Fuzzy (NF) and Gene Expression Programming (GEP). Each model uses the DRASTIC index, the acronym of 7 geological, hydrological and hydrogeological parameters, which collectively represents intrinsic (or natural) vulnerability and gives a sense of contaminants, such as nitrate-N, penetrating aquifers from the surface.