Time-dependent probabilistic tsunami risk assessment: application to Tofino, British Columbia, Canada, subjected to Cascadia subduction earthquakes.

A new time-dependent probabilistic tsunami risk model is developed to facilitate the long-term risk management strategies for coastal communities. The model incorporates the time-dependency of earthquake occurrence and considers numerous heterogeneous slip distributions via a stochastic source modeling approach. Tidal level effects are examined by considering different baseline sea levels.

Bayesian tsunami fragility modeling considering input data uncertainty.

Empirical tsunami fragility curves are developed based on a Bayesian framework by accounting for uncertainty of input tsunami hazard data in a systematic and comprehensive manner. Three fragility modeling approaches, i.e.

Stochastic coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami for the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake.

This study conducts coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami using stochastically generated earthquake source models. It is focused upon the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. The ground motion time-histories are simulated using the multiple-event stochastic finite-fault method, which takes into account multiple local rupture processes in strong motion generation areas.