COVID-19 Reproduction Numbers and Long COVID Prevalences in California State Prisons.

Prisons have been hotspots for COVID-19 and likely an important driver of racial disparity in disease burden. From the first COVID-19 case detected through March 25, 2022, 66,684 of 196,652 residents of California's state prison system were infected, most of them in two large winter waves of outbreaks that reached all 35 of the state prisons. We used individual-level data on disease timing and nightly room assignments in these prisons to reconstruct locations and pathways of transmission statistically, and from that estimated reproduction numbers, locations of unobserved infection events, and the subsequent magnitude and distribution of long COVID prevalence.

Association of Social Support With Functional Outcomes in Older Adults Who Live Alone.

Importance: Older adults who live alone are at risk for poor health outcomes. Whether social support mitigates the risk of living alone, particularly when facing a sudden change in health, has not been adequately reported.

Objective: To assess if identifiable support buffers the vulnerability of a health shock while living alone.

Lifecourse Educational Trajectories and Hypertension in Midlife: An Application of Sequence Analysis.

Background: Higher educational attainment predicts lower hypertension. Yet, associations between nontraditional educational trajectories (eg, interrupted degree programs) and hypertension are less well understood, particularly among structurally marginalized groups who are more likely to experience these non-traditional trajectories.

Methods: In National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort data (N = 6 317), we used sequence and cluster analyses to identify groups of similar educational sequences-characterized by timing and type of terminal credential-that participants followed from age 14-48 years.

Understanding the benefits of different types and timing of education for mental health: A sequence analysis approach.

Objectives: Individuals increasingly experience delays or interruptions in schooling; we evaluate the association between these non-traditional education trajectories and mental health.

Methods: Using year-by-year education data for 7,501 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 participants, ages 14-48 (262,535 person-years of education data), we applied sequence analysis and a clustering algorithm to identify educational trajectory groups, incorporating both type and timing to credential. Linear regression models, adjusted for early-life confounders, evaluated relationships between educational trajectories and mental health component scores (MCS) from the 12-item short form instrument at age 50.

Are Antimotility Agents Safe for Use in Infections? Results From an Observational Study in Malignant Hematology Patients.

Objectives: To evaluate the safety of antimotility agents (AAs) in a population of patients with hematologic malignancies and concurrent infection (CDI) and to describe the outcomes of AA use in a hospital setting.

Patients And Methods: We used the electronic health record to identify patients who were hospitalized in the adult malignant hematology service who had 1 or more toxin-positive stool assay between April 1, 2012, and September 21, 2017. We reviewed medical charts to obtain information on the use of AAs and any subsequent gastrointestinal complications.

Estimation of effects of contact tracing and mask adoption on COVID-19 transmission in San Francisco: a modeling study.

The current COVID-19 pandemic has spurred concern about what interventions may be effective at reducing transmission. The city and county of San Francisco imposed a shelter-in-place order in March 2020, followed by use of a contact tracing program and a policy requiring use of cloth face masks. We used statistical estimation and simulation to estimate the effectiveness of these interventions in San Francisco.

Measles transmission during a large outbreak in California.

A large measles outbreak in 2014-2015, linked to Disneyland theme parks, attracted international attention, and led to changes in California vaccine policy. We use dates of symptom onset and known epidemic links for California cases in this outbreak to estimate time-varying transmission in the outbreak, and to estimate generation membership of cases probabilistically. We find that transmission declined significantly during the course of the outbreak (p = 0.

Real-time predictions of the 2018-2019 Ebola virus disease outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo using Hawkes point process models.

As of June 16, 2019, an Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak has led to 2136 reported cases in the northeastern region of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). As this outbreak continues to threaten the lives and livelihoods of people already suffering from civil strife and armed conflict, relatively simple mathematical models and their short-term predictions have the potential to inform Ebola response efforts in real time. We applied recently developed non-parametrically estimated Hawkes point processes to model the expected cumulative case count using daily case counts from May 3, 2018, to June 16, 2019, initially reported by the Ministry of Health of DRC and later confirmed in World Health Organization situation reports.

Projections of epidemic transmission and estimation of vaccination impact during an ongoing Ebola virus disease outbreak in Northeastern Democratic Republic of Congo, as of Feb. 25, 2019.

Background: As of February 25, 2019, 875 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in North Kivu and Ituri Provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo. Since the beginning of October 2018, the outbreak has largely shifted into regions in which active armed conflict has occurred, and in which EVD cases and their contacts have been difficult for health workers to reach. We used available data on the current outbreak, with case-count time series from prior outbreaks, to project the short-term and long-term course of the outbreak.

Estimating the impact of violent events on transmission in Ebola virus disease outbreak, Democratic Republic of the Congo, 2018-2019.

Introduction: As of April 2019, the current Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is occurring in a longstanding conflict zone and has become the second largest EVD outbreak in history. It is suspected that after violent events occur, EVD transmission will increase; however, empirical studies to understand the impact of violence on transmission are lacking. Here, we use spatial and temporal trends of EVD case counts to compare transmission rates between health zones that have versus have not experienced recent violent events during the outbreak.

Massage for Symptom Management in Adult Inpatients With Hematologic Malignancies.

Background: Patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplant often suffer from a predictable constellation of side effects related to therapy. Nonpharmacologic treatments for these side effects are attractive adjuncts to therapy due to a low side-effect profile.

Objective: To develop, implement, and evaluate a pilot program of massage therapy for symptom management in adult patients with hematologic malignancies admitted to the bone marrow transplant (BMT) service at a large academic medical center.

Projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018.

As of May 27, 2018, 6 suspected, 13 probable and 35 confirmed cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) had been reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the total outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use. We modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model that included reproduction numbers from past Ebola outbreaks and a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the outbreak size and duration conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using high (62%), low (44%), and zero (0%) estimates of vaccination coverage (after deployment).