Pacific decadal oscillation causes fewer near-equatorial cyclones in the North Indian Ocean.

Tropical cyclones do not form easily near the equator but can intensify rapidly, leaving little time for preparation. We investigate the number of near-equatorial (originating between 5°N and 11°N) tropical cyclones over the north Indian Ocean during post-monsoon season (October to December) over the past 60 years. The study reveals a marked 43% decline in the number of such cyclones in recent decades (1981-2010) compared to earlier (1951-1980).

Decline and poleward shift in Indian summer monsoon synoptic activity in a warming climate.

Cyclonic atmospheric vortices of varying intensity, collectively known as low-pressure systems (LPS), travel northwest across central India and produce more than half of the precipitation received by that fertile region and its ∼600 million inhabitants. Yet, future changes in LPS activity are poorly understood, due in part to inadequate representation of these storms in current climate models. Using a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model that realistically simulates the genesis distribution of LPS, here we show that Indian monsoon LPS activity declines about 45% by the late 21st century in simulations of a business-as-usual emission scenario.

Origin of cold bias over the Arabian Sea in Climate Models.

Almost all climate models in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase five (CMIP5) were found to have a cold bias in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the northern Arabian Sea, which is linked to the biases in the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). This cold SST bias was attributed to the anomalous cold winds from the north-western part of south Asian landmass during boreal winter. However, the origin of the anomalously strong cold winds over the Arabian Sea and its association with the large-scale circulation is obscure.