Publications by authors named "R Keeling"

Article Synopsis
  • Improved estimates of air-sea CO exchange in the Southern Ocean were derived using atmospheric CO measurements and an advanced inverse model, unveiling previously unnoticed features in seasonal flux cycles.
  • The findings reveal a weak winter outgassing in polar regions and significantly stronger summer CO uptake in polar/subpolar areas than earlier neural-network estimates.
  • The study highlights issues with atmospheric transport models, indicating they often overestimate mixing at high southern latitudes during summer, which affects the accuracy of CO exchange estimates.
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The Southern Ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO, but the nature and magnitude of its variability remains uncertain and debated. Estimates based on observations suggest substantial variability that is not reproduced by process-based ocean models, with increasingly divergent estimates over the past decade. We examine potential constraints on the nature and magnitude of climate-driven variability of the Southern Ocean CO sink from observation-based air-sea O fluxes.

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We explore the ability of the atmospheric CO record since 1900 to constrain the source of CO from land use and land cover change (hereafter "land use"), taking account of uncertainties in other terms in the global carbon budget. We find that the atmospheric constraint favors land use CO flux estimates with lower decadal variability and can identify potentially erroneous features, such as emission peaks around 1960 and after 2000, in some published estimates. Furthermore, we resolve an offset in the global carbon budget that is most plausibly attributed to the land use flux.

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Long-term measurements at the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) show that the CO seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) increased from 1959 to 2019 at an overall rate of 0.22   0.034 ppm decade while also varying on interannual to decadal time scales.

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