Estimating COVID-19 associated hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and in-hospital deaths averted in the United States by 2023-2024 COVID-19 vaccination: A conditional probability, causal inference, and multiplier-based approach.

COVID-19-associated hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and in-hospital deaths averted from 2023 to 2024 COVID-19 vaccination from the weeks of October 1, 2023, through April 21, 2024, were estimated via a novel multiplier model that utilized causal inference, conditional probabilities of hospitalization, and correlations between data elements in Monte Carlo simulations. Median COVID-19-associated hospitalizations averted were 68,315 (95 % uncertainty interval [UI] 42,831-97,984), ICU admissions averted were 13,108 (95 % UI 4459-25,042), and in-hospital deaths averted were 5301 (95 % UI 101-14,230). Averted COVID-19-associated burden was highest in adults aged 65 years and older (hospitalizations averted 57,665, 95 % UI 35,442-84,006; ICU admissions averted 10,878, 95 % UI 3104-21,591; in-hospital deaths averted 4779, 95 % UI 0-13,132).

Methods to Adjust for Confounding in Test-Negative Design COVID-19 Effectiveness Studies: Simulation Study.

Background: Real-world COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) studies are investigating exposures of increasing complexity accounting for time since vaccination. These studies require methods that adjust for the confounding that arises when morbidities and demographics are associated with vaccination and the risk of outcome events. Methods based on propensity scores (PS) are well-suited to this when the exposure is dichotomous, but present challenges when the exposure is multinomial.

Magnitude of Potential Biases in COVID-19 Vaccine Effectiveness Studies due to Differential Healthcare seeking following Home Testing: Implications for Test Negative Design Studies.

The test-negative design (TND) is widely used to estimate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE). Biased estimates of VE may result from effects of at-home SARS-CoV-2 rapid diagnostic test (RDT) results on decisions to seek healthcare. To investigate magnitude of potential bias, we constructed decision trees with input probabilities obtained from longitudinal surveys of U.

Effectiveness of a tailored forest package of interventions, including topical repellents, in reducing malaria incidence in Myanmar.

Background: In Myanmar, progress towards malaria elimination has stagnated in some areas requiring deployment of new tools and approaches to accelerate malaria elimination. While there is evidence that networks of community-based malaria workers and insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) can reduce malaria transmission in a variety of settings, evidence for the effectiveness of other interventions, such as topical repellents, is limited. Since malaria transmission in Myanmar occurs outdoors, mainly among forest-goers, this study tested the effectiveness of topical repellents in combination with supplemental ITN distribution and strengthened networks of malaria workers.

Effectiveness of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines and hybrid immunity in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19 among adults in the United States.

Background: Understanding protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection by vaccine and hybrid immunity is important for informing public health strategies as new variants emerge.

Methods: We analyzed data from three cohort studies spanning September 1, 2022-July 31, 2023, to estimate COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) against SARS-CoV-2 infection and symptomatic COVID-19 among adults with and without prior infection in the United States. Participants collected weekly nasal swabs, irrespective of symptoms, annual blood draws, and completed periodic surveys, which included vaccination status and prior infection history.