Durations of asymptomatic, symptomatic, and care-seeking phases of tuberculosis disease with a Bayesian analysis of prevalence survey and notification data.

Background: Ratios of bacteriologically positive tuberculosis (TB) prevalence to notification rates are used to characterise typical durations of TB disease. However, this ignores the clinical spectrum of tuberculosis disease and potentially long infectious periods with minimal or no symptoms prior to care-seeking.

Methods: We developed novel statistical models to estimate progression from initial bacteriological positivity including smear conversion, symptom onset and initial care-seeking.

Incidence of HIV-positive admission and inpatient mortality in Malawi (2012-2019).

Objective: To investigate trends in population incidence of HIV-positive hospital admission and risk of in-hospital death among adults living with HIV between 2012 and 2019 in Blantyre, Malawi.

Design: Population cohort study using an existing electronic health information system ('SPINE') at Queen Elizabeth Central Hospital and Blantyre census data.

Methods: We used multiple imputation and negative binomial regression to estimate population age-specific and sex-specific admission rates over time.

Tuberculosis case notifications in Malawi have strong seasonal and weather-related trends.

Seasonal trends in tuberculosis (TB) notifications have been observed in several countries but are poorly understood. Explanatory factors may include weather, indoor crowding, seasonal respiratory infections and migration. Using enhanced citywide TB surveillance data collected over nine years in Blantyre, Malawi, we set out to investigate how weather and seasonality affect temporal trends in TB case notification rates (CNRs) across different demographic groups.

Disparities in access to diagnosis and care in Blantyre, Malawi, identified through enhanced tuberculosis surveillance and spatial analysis.

Background: A sizeable fraction of tuberculosis (TB) cases go undiagnosed. By analysing data from enhanced demographic, microbiological and geospatial surveillance of TB registrations, we aimed to identify modifiable predictors of inequitable access to diagnosis and care.

Methods: Governmental community health workers (CHW) enumerated all households in 315 catchment areas during October-December 2015.