COVID-19 outbreak: a predictive mathematical study incorporating shedding effect.

In this paper, a modified SEIR epidemic model incorporating shedding effect is proposed to analyze transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 virus among different individuals' classes. The direct impact of pathogen concentration over susceptible populations through the shedding of COVID-19 virus into the environment is investigated. Moreover, the threshold value of shedding parameters is computed which gives information about their significance in decreasing the impact of the disease.