Interventions to mitigate the spread of infectious diseases, while succeeding in their goal, have economic and social costs associated with them. These limit the duration and intensity of the interventions. We study a class of interventions which reduce the reproduction number and find the optimal strength of the intervention which minimizes the final epidemic size for an immunity inducing infection.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFSeveral recent emerging diseases have exhibited both sexual and nonsexual transmission modes (Ebola, Zika, and mpox). In the recent mpox outbreaks, transmission through sexual contacts appears to be the dominant mode of transmission. Motivated by this, we use an SIR-like model to argue that an initially dominant sexual transmission mode can be overtaken by casual transmission at later stages, even if the basic casual reproduction number is less than one.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFBackground: Pre-pandemic empirical studies have produced mixed statistical results on the effectiveness of masks against respiratory viruses, leading to confusion that may have contributed to organizations such as the WHO and CDC initially not recommending that the general public wear masks during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.
Methods: A threshold-based dose-response curve framework is used to analyse the effects of interventions on infection probabilities for both single and repeated exposure events. Empirical studies on mask effectiveness are evaluated with a statistical power analysis that includes the effect of adherence to mask usage protocols.