Non-stationary response of rain-fed spring wheat yield to future climate change in northern latitudes.

The non-stationary response of crop growth to changes in hydro-climatic variables makes yield projection uncertain and the design and implementation of adaptation strategies debatable. This study simulated the time-varying behavior of the underlying cause-and-effect mechanisms affecting spring wheat yield (SWY) under various climate change and nitrogen (N) application scenarios in the Red Deer River basin in agricultural lands of the western Canadian Prairies. A calibrated and validated Soil and Water Assessment Tool and Analysis of Variance decomposition methods were utilized to assess the contribution of crop growth parameters, Global Climate Models, Representative Concentration Pathways, and downscaling techniques to the total SWY variance for the 2040-2064 period.