Estimation of end-of-outbreak probabilities in the presence of delayed and incomplete case reporting.

Towards the end of an infectious disease outbreak, when a period has elapsed without new case notifications, a key question for public health policymakers is whether the outbreak can be declared over. This requires the benefits of a declaration (e.g.

Random walk models in the life sciences: including births, deaths and local interactions.

Random walks and related spatial stochastic models have been used in a range of application areas, including animal and plant ecology, infectious disease epidemiology, developmental biology, wound healing and oncology. Classical random walk models assume that all individuals in a population behave independently, ignoring local physical and biological interactions. This assumption simplifies the mathematical description of the population considerably, enabling continuum-limit descriptions to be derived and used in model analysis and fitting.

Estimating the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection in New Zealand border arrivals.

Background: Travel restrictions and border controls were used extensively during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the processes for making robust evidence-based risk assessments of source countries to inform border control policies was in many cases very limited.

Methods: Between April 2020 and February 2022, all international arrivals to New Zealand were required to spend 14 days in government-managed quarantine facilities and were tested at least twice.

Printed Thin Magnetic Films via Ternary Hybrid Diblock Copolymer Films Containing Magnetic Iron Oxide and Nickel Nanoparticles.

Ternary hybrid thin films composed of a diblock copolymer templating two types of nanoparticles (NPs) expand the functionality of binary systems, which renders them interesting for magnetic sensing or magnetic data storage applications. Herein, one-pot slot-die printed hybrid polystyrene--poly(methyl methacrylate) (PS--PMMA) thin films are prepared with iron oxide (magnetite, FeO, = 20 nm) and nickel NPs (Ni, = 46 nm) in one step by the advanced slot-die coating technique, which facilitates upscaling of fabrication. The evolution of the hybrid film morphology is probed with in situ grazing-incidence small-angle X-ray scattering and compared to that of a PS--PMMA thin film without NPs.

Optimising Control Device Luring Strategies for Invasive Predator Control: A Modelling Approach.

Invasive predators pose a serious threat to native biodiversity, with trapping being one of several methods developed to manage and monitor their populations. Many individuals in these predator populations have been found to display trap-shyness, which hinders eradication and results in inaccurate estimates of population size. Lures are used to help overcome trap-shyness by increasing the probability of interaction with the device, but the extent of trap-shyness in wild populations, and the best timing for the introduction of a new lure or combination of lures, are uncertain.

Understanding the Omicron Variant Impact in Healthcare Workers: Insights from the Prospective COVID-19 Post-Immunization Serological Cohort in Munich (KoCo-Impf) on Risk Factors for Breakthrough and Reinfections.

This study analyzes immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and infection, including asymptomatic cases, focusing on infection risks during the Omicron wave, particularly among high-risk healthcare workers. In the KoCo-Impf study, we monitored 6088 vaccinated participants in Munich aged 18 and above. From 13 May to 31 July 2022, 2351 participants were follow-uped.

Quantifying age-specific household contacts in Aotearoa New Zealand for infectious disease modelling.

Accounting for population age structure and age-specific contact patterns is crucial for accurate modelling of human infectious disease dynamics and impact. A common approach is to use contact matrices, which estimate the number of contacts between individuals of different ages. These contact matrices are frequently based on data collected from populations with very different demographic and socio-economic characteristics from the population of interest.

Baseline Characteristics and Maintenance Therapy Choice on Symptom Control, Reliever Use, Exacerbation Risk in Moderate-Severe Asthma: A Clinical Modelling and Simulation Study.

Introduction: Although some factors associated with asthma symptom deterioration and risk of exacerbation have been identified, these are not yet fully characterised. We conducted a clinical modelling and simulation study to understand baseline factors affecting symptom control, reliever use and exacerbation risk in patients with moderate-severe asthma during follow-up on regularly dosed inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) monotherapy, or ICS/long-acting beta-agonist (LABA) combination therapy.

Methods: Individual patient data from randomised clinical trials (undertaken between 2001 and 2019) were used to model the time course of symptoms (n = 7593), patterns of reliever medication use (n = 3768) and time-to-first exacerbation (n = 6763), considering patient-specific and extrinsic factors, including treatment.

Structured methods for parameter inference and uncertainty quantification for mechanistic models in the life sciences.

Parameter inference and uncertainty quantification are important steps when relating mathematical models to real-world observations and when estimating uncertainty in model predictions. However, methods for doing this can be computationally expensive, particularly when the number of unknown model parameters is large. The aim of this study is to develop and test an efficient profile likelihood-based method, which takes advantage of the structure of the mathematical model being used.

Jointly estimating epidemiological dynamics of Covid-19 from case and wastewater data in Aotearoa New Zealand.

Background: Timely and informed public health responses to infectious diseases such as COVID-19 necessitate reliable information about infection dynamics. The case ascertainment rate (CAR), the proportion of infections that are reported as cases, is typically much less than one and varies with testing practices and behaviours, making reported cases unreliable as the sole source of data. The concentration of viral RNA in wastewater samples provides an alternate measure of infection prevalence that is not affected by clinical testing, healthcare-seeking behaviour or access to care.

Inverse Vulcanization of Activated Norbornenyl Esters-A Versatile Platform for Functional Sulfur Polymers.

Elemental sulfur has shown to be a promising alternative feedstock for development of novel polymeric materials with high sulfur content. However, the utilization of inverse vulcanized polymers is restricted by the limitation of functional comonomers suitable for an inverse vulcanization. Control over properties and structure of inverse vulcanized polymers still poses a challenge to current research due to the dynamic nature of sulfur-sulfur bonds and high temperature of inverse vulcanization reactions.

Exploring Clinical Remission in Moderate Asthma - Perspectives from Asia, the Middle East, and South America.

Introduction: Clinical remission is a relatively new concept in asthma but recent research initiatives suggest it could be an ambitious and achievable therapeutic target for patients with asthma.

Methods: In this modified Delphi study (comprising two online surveys, completed either side of a virtual scientific workshop), the opinions of a panel of respiratory physicians were evaluated to summarize perspective statements on key therapeutic outcomes and criteria for on-treatment clinical remission in patients with moderate asthma. An agreement threshold was pre-defined as agreement by ≥ 75% of participants.

Steps towards operationalizing One Health approaches.

One Health recognizes the health of humans, agriculture, wildlife, and the environment are interrelated. The concept has been embraced by international health and environmental authorities such as WHO, WOAH, FAO, and UNEP, but One Health approaches have been more practiced by researchers than national or international authorities. To identify priorities for operationalizing One Health beyond research contexts, we conducted 41 semi-structured interviews with professionals across One Health sectors (public health, environment, agriculture, wildlife) and institutional contexts, who focus on national-scale and international applications.

Pharmacological Basis of Differences in Dose Response, Dose Equivalence, and Duration of Action of Inhaled Corticosteroids.

Introduction: Asthma treatment guidelines classify inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) regimens as low, medium, or high dose. However, efficacy and safety are not independently assessed accordingly. Moreover, differences in ICS duration of action are not considered when a dose regimen is selected.

Ethical frameworks should be applied to computational modelling of infectious disease interventions.

This perspective is part of an international effort to improve epidemiological models with the goal of reducing the unintended consequences of infectious disease interventions. The scenarios in which models are applied often involve difficult trade-offs that are well recognised in public health ethics. Unless these trade-offs are explicitly accounted for, models risk overlooking contested ethical choices and values, leading to an increased risk of unintended consequences.

Systems level analysis of time and stimuli specific signaling through PKA.

It is well known that eukaryotic cells create gradients of cAMP across space and time to regulate the cAMP dependent protein kinase (PKA) and, in turn, growth and metabolism. However, it is unclear how PKA responds to different concentrations of cAMP. Here, to address this question, we examine PKA signaling in in different conditions, timepoints, and concentrations of the chemical inhibitor 1-NM-PP1, using phosphoproteomics.

A Dried Blood Spot protocol for high-throughput quantitative analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RBD serology based on the Roche Elecsys system.

SARS-CoV-2 spreads pandemically since 2020; in 2021, effective vaccinations became available and vaccination campaigns commenced. Still, it is hard to track the spread of the infection or to assess vaccination success in the broader population. Measuring specific anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is the most effective tool to track the spread of the infection or successful vaccinations.

The impact of Covid-19 vaccination in Aotearoa New Zealand: A modelling study.

Aotearoa New Zealand implemented a Covid-19 elimination strategy in 2020 and 2021, which enabled a large majority of the population to be vaccinated before being exposed to the virus. This strategy delivered one of the lowest pandemic mortality rates in the world. However, quantitative estimates of the population-level health benefits of vaccination are lacking.

Key Challenges for Respiratory Virus Surveillance while Transitioning out of Acute Phase of COVID-19 Pandemic.

To support the ongoing management of viral respiratory diseases while transitioning out of the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic, many countries are moving toward an integrated model of surveillance for SARS-CoV-2, influenza virus, and other respiratory pathogens. Although many surveillance approaches catalyzed by the COVID-19 pandemic provide novel epidemiologic insight, continuing them as implemented during the pandemic is unlikely to be feasible for nonemergency surveillance, and many have already been scaled back. Furthermore, given anticipated cocirculation of SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus, surveillance activities in place before the pandemic require review and adjustment to ensure their ongoing value for public health.

Near-term forecasting of Covid-19 cases and hospitalisations in Aotearoa New Zealand.

Near-term forecasting of infectious disease incidence and consequent demand for acute healthcare services can support capacity planning and public health responses. Despite well-developed scenario modelling to support the Covid-19 response, Aotearoa New Zealand lacks advanced infectious disease forecasting capacity. We develop a model using Aotearoa New Zealand's unique Covid-19 data streams to predict reported Covid-19 cases, hospital admissions and hospital occupancy.

Continued mitigation needed to minimise the high health burden from COVID-19 in Aotearoa New Zealand.

In this article we review the COVID-19 pandemic experience in Aotearoa New Zealand and consider the optimal ongoing response strategy. We note that this pandemic virus looks likely to result in future waves of infection that diminish in size over time, depending on such factors as viral evolution and population immunity. However, the burden of disease remains high with thousands of infections, hundreds of hospitalisations and tens of deaths each week, and an unknown burden of long-term illness (long COVID).

The Prospective COVID-19 Post-Immunization Serological Cohort in Munich (KoCo-Impf): Risk Factors and Determinants of Immune Response in Healthcare Workers.

Antibody studies analyze immune responses to SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and infection, which is crucial for selecting vaccination strategies. In the KoCo-Impf study, conducted between 16 June and 16 December 2021, 6088 participants aged 18 and above from Munich were recruited to monitor antibodies, particularly in healthcare workers (HCWs) at higher risk of infection. Roche Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assays on dried blood spots were used to detect prior infections (anti-Nucleocapsid antibodies) and to indicate combinations of vaccinations/infections (anti-Spike antibodies).

The representative COVID-19 cohort Munich (KoCo19): from the beginning of the pandemic to the Delta virus variant.

Background: Population-based serological studies allow to estimate prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections despite a substantial number of mild or asymptomatic disease courses. This became even more relevant for decision making after vaccination started. The KoCo19 cohort tracks the pandemic progress in the Munich general population for over two years, setting it apart in Europe.