Associations between family planning, healthcare access, and female education and vaccination among under-immunized children.

Background: Increasing childhood vaccination, family planning, healthcare access, and women's empowerment are targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Barriers to healthcare access impede vaccination; tackling goals holistically could create larger gains than siloed efforts. We studied Nepal, Senegal, and Zambia to test the association between childhood vaccinations and other SDG indicators to identify clustered deprivations.

Adherence to Guidelines and Federal Psychotropic Medication Labels for the Treatment of Medicaid-Insured Children With ADHD.

Objective: This study examined adherence to clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) and U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) medication labels when prescribing psychotropic medications to Medicaid-insured children with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

Modeling the Impact of Proactive Community Case Management on Reducing Confirmed Malaria Cases in Sub-Saharan African Countries.

Malaria continues to be a major source of morbidity and mortality in sub-Saharan Africa. Timely, accurate, and effective case management is critical to malaria control. Proactive community case management (ProCCM) is a new strategy in which a community health worker "sweeps" a village, visiting households at defined intervals to proactively provide diagnostic testing and treatment if indicated.

Modeling the spread of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 outbreaks and interventions: A case study of Nigeria.

Background: Despite the successes of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative, substantial challenges remain in eradicating the poliovirus. The Sabin-strain (live-attenuated) virus in oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) can revert to circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) in under-vaccinated communities, regain neurovirulence and transmissibility, and cause paralysis outbreaks. Since the cessation of type 2-containing OPV (OPV2) in 2016, there have been cVDPV type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks in four out of six geographical World Health Organization regions, making these outbreaks a significant public health threat.

Potential Impact of a Diagnostic Test for Detecting Prepatent Guinea Worm Infections in Dogs.

Chad has seen a considerable reduction in cases of Guinea worm disease (or dracunculiasis) in domestic dogs in recent years. Tethering of dogs and application of Abate® larvicide to water sources appear to have contributed to this progress, but with 767 reported dog cases in 2021, accelerating elimination of the disease in Chad may require additional tools. We investigate the potential benefits of a hypothetical diagnostic test that could be capable of detecting prepatent infections in dogs.

A mixed integer programming model for vaccine pricing within a group purchasing organization.

Background: Setting prices for life-saving medical or pharmaceutical products needs to consider multiple factors, e.g., affordability and health outcomes across different populations.

Factors associated with vaccine coverage improvements in Senegal between 2005 and 2019: a quantitative retrospective analysis.

Objective: Senegal has demonstrated catalytic improvements in national coverage rates for early childhood vaccination, despite lower development assistance for childhood vaccines in Senegal compared with other low-income and lower-middle income countries. Understanding factors associated with historical changes in childhood vaccine coverage in Senegal, as well as heterogeneities across its 14 regions, can highlight effective practices that might be adapted to improve vaccine coverage elsewhere.

Design: Childhood vaccination coverage rates, demographic information and health system characteristics were identified from Senegal's Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Senegal national reports for years 2005-2019.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Potential Interventions for Guinea Worm Disease in Dogs in Chad Using Simulations.

Guinea worm (GW) disease (or dracunculiasis) is currently transmitted among dogs in Chad, which presents risks for the human population. We studied how interventions implemented at different levels might reduce the spread of GW disease (geographically and over time) and what levels of interventions might accelerate elimination. We built a multiple-water-source agent-based simulation model to analyze the disease transmission among dogs in Chad, as well as in geographic district clusters, and validated it using local infection data.

Split or whole liver transplantation? Utilization and posttransplant survival.

Background: Split liver transplantation (SLT), where a single donor liver is divided for transplantation to 2 recipients, has the potential to increase the availability of size-matched livers for pediatric candidates and expand the supply of donor organs available for adult candidates. Although SLT is a well-established technique, the number of SLTs has remained flat during the past 2 decades, partly due to concerns about the posttransplant survival of SLT recipients compared with whole liver transplantation (WLT) recipients. Prior work on SLT versus WLT survival analysis had limitations because, for pediatric recipients, it did not consider the correlations between donor age/weight and the allograft type, and for adult recipients, it may have included records where the donor livers did not meet the split liver criteria (splittable).

Predicting a kidney transplant patient's pre-transplant functional status based on information from waitlist registration.

With over 100,000 patients on the kidney transplant waitlist in 2019, it is important to understand if and how the functional status of a patient may change while on the waitlist. Recorded both at registration and just prior to transplantation, the Karnofsky Performance Score measures a patient's functional status and takes on values ranging from 0 to 100 in increments of 10. Using machine learning techniques, we built a gradient boosting regression model to predict a patient's pre-transplant functional status based on information known at the time of waitlist registration.

The Impact of Testing Capacity and Compliance With Isolation on COVID-19: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

Introduction: Diagnostic tests can play an important role in reducing the transmission of infectious respiratory diseases, particularly during a pandemic. The potential benefit of diagnostic testing depends on at least 4 factors: (1) how soon testing becomes available after the beginning of the pandemic and (2) at what capacity; (3) compliance with isolation after testing positive; and (4) compliance with isolation when experiencing symptoms, even in the absence of testing.

Methods: To understand the interplay between these factors and provide further insight into policy decisions for future pandemics, we developed a compartmental model and simulated numerous scenarios using the dynamics of COVID-19 as a case study.

Can vaccine prioritization reduce disparities in COVID-19 burden for historically marginalized populations?

SARS-CoV-2 vaccination strategies were designed to reduce COVID-19 mortality, morbidity, and health inequities. To assess the impact of vaccination strategies on disparities in COVID-19 burden among historically marginalized populations (HMPs), e.g.

Flexible analytic model to inform multi-stakeholder pediatric vaccine scheduling decisions.

Background: Pediatric immunization is important for preventing potentially life-threatening diseases in children. Over time, the number of recommended pediatric vaccines has increased and is likely to increase further as new vaccines are developed. Given the different number of doses for available vaccines and various constraints (e.

Critical success factors for high routine immunization performance: A case study of Nepal.

Introduction: The essential components of a vaccine delivery system are well-documented, but robust evidence on how and why the related processes and implementation strategies drive catalytic improvements in vaccination coverage are not well established. To address this gap, we identified critical success factors that may have led to substantial improvements in routine childhood immunization coverage in Nepal from 2000 through 2019.

Methods: We identified Nepal as an exemplar in the delivery of early childhood immunization through analysis of DTP1 and DTP3 coverage data.

Critical success factors for routine immunization performance: A case study of Zambia 2000 to 2018.

Introduction: The essential components of a vaccine delivery system are well-documented, but robust evidence on how and why the related processes and implementation strategies prove effective at driving coverage is not well-established. To address this gap, we identified critical success factors associated with advancing key policies and programs that may have led to the substantial changes in routine childhood immunization coverage in Zambia between 2000 and 2018.

Methods: We identified Zambia as an exemplar in the delivery of childhood vaccines through analysis of DTP1 and DTP3 coverage data.

The balancing role of distribution speed against varying efficacy levels of COVID-19 vaccines under variants.

During a pandemic, vaccination plays an important role in reducing the infection spread or adverse outcomes such as hospitalizations and deaths. However, a vaccine's overall public health impact depends not only on its initial efficacy, but also its efficacy against emerging variants and ease and speed of distribution. For example, mutations in SARS-CoV-2 raised concerns about diminishing vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 caused by particular variants.

Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States.

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.

Evaluating scenarios for school reopening under COVID19.

Background: Thousands of school systems have struggled with the decisions about how to deliver education safely and effectively amid the COVID19 pandemic. This study evaluates the public health impact of various school reopening scenarios (when, and how to return to in-person instruction) on the spread of COVID19.

Methods: An agent-based simulation model was adapted and used to project the impact of various school reopening strategies on the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in the state of Georgia during the study period, i.

The cost-effectiveness of depression screening for the general adult population.

Background: Depression is a treatable disease, and untreated depression can lead to serious health complications and decrease the quality of life. Therefore, prevention, early identification, and treatment efforts are essential. Screening has an essential role in preventive medicine in the general population.

Resource allocation for different types of vaccines against COVID-19: Tradeoffs and synergies between efficacy and reach.

Objective: Vaccine shortage and supply-chain challenges have caused limited access by many resource-limited countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. One of the primary decisions for a vaccine-ordering decision-maker is how to allocate the limited resources between different types of vaccines effectively. We studied the tradeoff between efficacy and reach of the two vaccine types that become available at different times.

DIP: Natural history model for major depression with incidence and prevalence.

Background: Major depression is a treatable disease, and untreated depression can lead to serious health complications. Therefore, prevention, early identification, and treatment efforts are essential. Natural history models can be utilized to make informed decisions about interventions and treatments of major depression.

Significance of SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody testing during COVID-19 vaccine allocation.

Objective: To assess the value of using SARS-CoV-2 specific antibody testing to prioritize the vaccination of susceptible individuals as part of a COVID-19 vaccine distribution plan when vaccine supply is limited.

Methods: An extended susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) compartmental model was used to simulate COVID-19 spread when considering diagnosis, isolation, and vaccination of a cohort of 1 million individuals. The scenarios modeled represented 4 pandemic severity scenarios and various times when the vaccine becomes available during the pandemic.

Association of Simulated COVID-19 Vaccination and Nonpharmaceutical Interventions With Infections, Hospitalizations, and Mortality.

Importance: Vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 has the potential to significantly reduce transmission and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality. The relative importance of vaccination strategies and nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) is not well understood.

Objective: To assess the association of simulated COVID-19 vaccine efficacy and coverage scenarios with and without NPIs with infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.

Health spending and vaccination coverage in low-income countries.

Introduction: Routine immunisation is a cost-effective way to save lives and protect people from disease. Some low-income countries (LIC) achieved remarkable success in childhood immunisation. Yet, previous studies comparing the relationship between economic growth and health spending with vaccination coverage have been limited.

Homebound by COVID19: the benefits and consequences of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies.

Background: Recent research has been conducted by various countries and regions on the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on reducing the spread of COVID19. This study evaluates the tradeoffs between potential benefits (e.g.