Prognostic factors for worsening and improvement in multiple sclerosis using a multistate model.

Background: The long-term disease trajectory of people living with multiple sclerosis (MS) can be improved by initiating efficacious treatment early. More quantitative evidence is needed on factors that affect a patient's risk of disability worsening or possibility of improvement to inform timely treatment decisions.

Methods: We developed a multistate model to quantify the influence of demographic, clinical, and imaging factors on disability worsening and disability improvement simultaneously across the disability spectrum as measured by the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS).

How patients with multiple sclerosis acquire disability.

Patients with multiple sclerosis acquire disability either through relapse-associated worsening (RAW) or progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA). This study addresses the relative contribution of relapses to disability worsening over the course of the disease, how early progression begins and the extent to which multiple sclerosis therapies delay disability accumulation. Using the Novartis-Oxford multiple sclerosis (NO.

Advancing data science in drug development through an innovative computational framework for data sharing and statistical analysis.

Background: Novartis and the University of Oxford's Big Data Institute (BDI) have established a research alliance with the aim to improve health care and drug development by making it more efficient and targeted. Using a combination of the latest statistical machine learning technology with an innovative IT platform developed to manage large volumes of anonymised data from numerous data sources and types we plan to identify novel patterns with clinical relevance which cannot be detected by humans alone to identify phenotypes and early predictors of patient disease activity and progression.

Method: The collaboration focuses on highly complex autoimmune diseases and develops a computational framework to assemble a research-ready dataset across numerous modalities.

Characterisation of MS phenotypes across the age span using a novel data set integrating 34 clinical trials (NO.MS cohort): Age is a key contributor to presentation.

Background: The Oxford Big Data Institute, multiple sclerosis (MS) physicians and Novartis aim to address unresolved questions in MS with a novel comprehensive clinical trial data set.

Objective: The objective of this study is to describe the Novartis-Oxford MS (NO.MS) data set and to explore the relationships between age, disease activity and disease worsening across MS phenotypes.