Using epidemiological evidence to forecast population need for early treatment programmes in mental health: a generalisable Bayesian prediction methodology applied to and validated for first-episode psychosis in England.

Background: Mental health policy makers require evidence-based information to optimise effective care provision based on local need, but tools are unavailable.

Aims: To develop and validate a population-level prediction model for need for early intervention in psychosis (EIP) care for first-episode psychosis (FEP) in England up to 2025, based on epidemiological evidence and demographic projections.

Method: We used Bayesian Poisson regression to model small-area-level variation in FEP incidence for people aged 16-64 years.

How will COVID-19 impact Australia's future population? A scenario approach.

The impact of COVID-19 has been massive and unprecedented, affecting almost every aspect of our daily lives. This paper attempts to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on the future size, composition and distribution of Australia's population by projecting a range of scenarios. Drawing on the academic literature, historical data and informed by expert judgement, four scenarios representing possible future courses of economic and demographic recovery are formulated.

The socio-spatial determinants of COVID-19 diffusion: the impact of globalisation, settlement characteristics and population.

Background: COVID-19 is an emergent infectious disease that has spread geographically to become a global pandemic. While much research focuses on the epidemiological and virological aspects of COVID-19 transmission, there remains an important gap in knowledge regarding the drivers of geographical diffusion between places, in particular at the global scale. Here, we use quantile regression to model the roles of globalisation, human settlement and population characteristics as socio-spatial determinants of reported COVID-19 diffusion over a six-week period in March and April 2020.

Breathlessness and sexual activity in older adults: the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

Sexual activity is important to older adults (65 + ). Breathlessness affects about 25% of older adults but impact on sexual activity is unknown. We evaluated the relationships between breathlessness and sexual inactivity and self-reported health among older community-dwelling adults in the Australian Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

Is late-life dependency increasing or not? A comparison of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS).

Background: Little is known about how the proportions of dependency states have changed between generational cohorts of older people. We aimed to estimate years lived in different dependency states at age 65 years in 1991 and 2011, and new projections of future demand for care.

Methods: In this population-based study, we compared two Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies (CFAS I and CFAS II) of older people (aged ≥65 years) who were permanently registered with a general practice in three defined geographical areas (Cambridgeshire, Newcastle, and Nottingham; UK).

A comparison of health expectancies over two decades in England: results of the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study I and II.

Background: Whether rises in life expectancy are increases in good-quality years is of profound importance worldwide, with population ageing. We investigate how various health expectancies have changed in England between 1991 and 2011, with identical study design and methods in each decade.

Methods: Baseline data from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Studies in populations aged 65 years or older in three geographically defined centres in England (Cambridgeshire, Newcastle, and Nottingham) provided prevalence estimates for three health measures: self-perceived health (defined as excellent-good, fair, or poor); cognitive impairment (defined as moderate-severe, mild, or none, as assessed by Mini-Mental State Examination score); and disability in activities of daily living (defined as none, mild, or moderate-severe).

Comparison of socio-economic indicators explaining inequalities in Healthy Life Years at age 50 in Europe: 2005 and 2010.

Background: The first estimates of Healthy Life Years at age 50 (HLY50) across the EU25 countries in 2005 showed substantial variation in healthy ageing. We investigate whether factors contributing to HLY50 inequalities have changed between 2005 and 2010.

Methods: HLY50 for each country and year were calculated using Sullivan's method, applying the age-specific prevalence of activity limitation from the European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) survey to life tables.

Drivers of inequality in disability-free expectancy at birth and age 85 across space and time in Great Britain.

Background: Although mortality and health inequalities at birth have increased both geographically and in socioeconomic terms, little is known about inequalities at age 85, the fastest growing sector of the population in Great Britain (GB).

Aim: To determine whether trends and drivers of inequalities in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at age 85 between 1991 and 2001 are the same as those at birth.

Methods: DFLE at birth and age 85 for 1991 and 2001 by gender were calculated for each local authority in GB using the Sullivan method.

Inequalities in healthy life expectancy between ethnic groups in England and Wales in 2001.

Objectives: We aim to develop robust estimates of disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE) for ethnic groups in England and Wales in 2001 and to examine observed variations across ethnic groups.

Design: DFLE and HLE by age and gender for five-year age groups were computed for 16 ethnic groups by combining the 2001 Census data on ethnicity, self-reported limiting long-term illness and self-rated health using mortality by ethnic group estimated by two methods: the Standardised Illness Ratio (SIR) method and the Geographically Weighted Method (GWM).

Results: The SIR and GWM methods differed somewhat in their estimates of life expectancy (LE) at birth but produced very similar estimates of DFLE and HLE by ethnic group.

The use of a new indirect method to estimate ethnic-group fertility rates for subnational projections for England.

To project the ethnic-group populations of local authorities in England to 2051, estimates of ethnic-specific fertility rates were needed. In the absence of ethnic information on birth records, we developed indirect estimation methods that use a combination of vital statistics, the census (both microdata and aggregate tables), and survey data (Labour Force Survey). We estimated age-specific and total fertility rates successively for five broad ethnic groups encompassed by all data-sets, and for eight ethnic groups encompassed by the 1991 and 2001 Censuses for England.

The estimation of mortality for ethnic groups at local scale within the United Kingdom.

As an input to projections of sub-national populations by ethnicity, this paper develops the first estimates of the mortality risks experienced by the UK ethnic groups. Two estimates were developed using alternative methods. In the first, UK 2001 Census data on limiting long-term illness to predict mortality levels and regression equations between local Standardized Illness and Mortality Ratios for all ethnicities are assumed to apply to individual ethnic groups.

Bioenergetics of the alkaliphilic sulfate-reducing bacterium Desulfonatronovibrio hydrogenovorans.

Energy metabolism of the alkaliphilic sulfate-reducing bacterium Desulfonatronovibrio hydrogenovorans strain Z-7935 was investigated in continuous culture and in physiological experiments on washed cells. When grown in chemostats with H2 as electron donor, the cells had extrapolated growth yields [Y(max), g dry cell mass (mol electron acceptor)(-1)] of 5.5 with sulfate and 12.