Genotypes selected for early and late avian lay date differ in their phenotype, but not fitness, in the wild.

Global warming has shifted phenological traits in many species, but whether species are able to track further increasing temperatures depends on the fitness consequences of additional shifts in phenological traits. To test this, we measured phenology and fitness of great tits () with genotypes for extremely early and late egg lay dates, obtained from a genomic selection experiment. Females with early genotypes advanced lay dates relative to females with late genotypes, but not relative to nonselected females.

A partial migrant relies upon a range-wide cue set but uses population-specific weighting for migratory timing.

Background: Many birds species range over vast geographic regions and migrate seasonally between their breeding and overwintering sites. Deciding when to depart for migration is one of the most consequential life-history decisions an individual may make. However, it is still not fully understood which environmental cues are used to time the onset of migration and to what extent their relative importance differs across a range of migratory strategies.

Recent natural variability in global warming weakened phenological mismatch and selection on seasonal timing in great tits ().

Climate change has led to phenological shifts in many species, but with large variation in magnitude among species and trophic levels. The poster child example of the resulting phenological mismatches between the phenology of predators and their prey is the great tit (), where this mismatch led to directional selection for earlier seasonal breeding. Natural climate variability can obscure the impacts of climate change over certain periods, weakening phenological mismatching and selection.

Species-specific effects of thermal stress on the expression of genetic variation across a diverse group of plant and animal taxa under experimental conditions.

Assessing the genetic adaptive potential of populations and species is essential for better understanding evolutionary processes. However, the expression of genetic variation may depend on environmental conditions, which may speed up or slow down evolutionary responses. Thus, the same selection pressure may lead to different responses.

Temperature has a causal and plastic effect on timing of breeding in a small songbird.

Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism by which an individual can adapt its seasonal timing to predictable, short-term environmental changes by using predictive cues. Identification of these cues is crucial to forecast the response of species to long-term environmental change and to study their potential to adapt. Individual great tits () start reproduction early under warmer conditions in the wild, but whether this effect is causal is not well known.

Opinion: Is gene mapping in wild populations useful for understanding and predicting adaptation to global change?

Changing environmental conditions will inevitably alter selection pressures. Over the long term, populations have to adapt to these altered conditions by evolutionary change to avoid extinction. Quantifying the 'evolutionary potential' of populations to predict whether they will be able to adapt fast enough to forecasted changes is crucial to fully assess the threat for biodiversity posed by climate change.

Quantifying individual variation in reaction norms: Mind the residual.

Phenotypic plasticity is a central topic in ecology and evolution. Individuals may differ in the degree of plasticity (individual-by-environment interaction (I × E)), which has implications for the capacity of populations to respond to selection. Random regression models (RRMs) are a popular tool to study I × E in behavioural or life-history traits, yet evidence for I × E is mixed, differing between species, populations, and even between studies on the same population.

Comparing two measures of phenological synchrony in a predator-prey interaction: Simpler works better.

Global climate change has sparked a vast research effort into the demographic and evolutionary consequences of mismatches between consumer and resource phenology. Many studies have used the difference in peak dates to quantify phenological synchrony (match in dates, MD), but this approach has been suggested to be inconclusive, since it does not incorporate the temporal overlap between the phenological distributions (match in overlap, MO). We used 24 years of detailed data on the phenology of a predator-prey system, the great tit (Parus major) and the main food for its nestlings, caterpillars, to estimate MD and MO at the population and brood levels.

Between- and Within-Individual Variation of Maternal Thyroid Hormone Deposition in Wild Great Tits ().

Maternal hormones are often considered a mediator of anticipatory maternal effects; namely, mothers adjust maternal hormone transfer to prepare the offspring for the anticipated environment. The flexibility for mothers to adjust hormone transfer is therefore a prerequisite for such anticipatory maternal effects. Nevertheless, previous studies have focused only on the average differences of maternal hormone transfer between groups and neglected the substantial individual variation, despite the fact that individual plasticity in maternal hormone transfer is actually the central assumption.

Exploration of tissue-specific gene expression patterns underlying timing of breeding in contrasting temperature environments in a song bird.

Background: Seasonal timing of breeding is a life history trait with major fitness consequences but the genetic basis of the physiological mechanism underlying it, and how gene expression is affected by date and temperature, is not well known. In order to study this, we measured patterns of gene expression over different time points in three different tissues of the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal-liver axis, and investigated specifically how temperature affects this axis during breeding. We studied female great tits (Parus major) from lines artificially selected for early and late timing of breeding that were housed in two contrasting temperature environments in climate-controlled aviaries.

Fine-tuning of seasonal timing of breeding is regulated downstream in the underlying neuro-endocrine system in a small songbird.

The timing of breeding is under selection in wild populations as a result of climate change, and understanding the underlying physiological processes mediating this timing provides insight into the potential rate of adaptation. Current knowledge on this variation in physiology is, however, mostly limited to males. We assessed whether individual differences in the timing of breeding in females are reflected in differences in candidate gene expression and, if so, whether these differences occur in the upstream (hypothalamus) or downstream (ovary and liver) parts of the neuroendocrine system.

Genomic selection on breeding time in a wild bird population.

Artificial selection experiments are a powerful tool in evolutionary biology. Selecting individuals based on multimarker genotypes (genomic selection) has several advantages over phenotype-based selection but has, so far, seen very limited use outside animal and plant breeding. Genomic selection depends on the markers tagging the causal loci that underlie the selected trait.

Short-term, but not long-term, increased daytime workload leads to decreased night-time energetics in a free-living song bird.

Reproduction is energetically expensive and to obtain sufficient energy, animals can either alter their metabolic system over time to increase energy intake (increased-intake hypothesis) or reallocate energy from maintenance processes (compensation hypothesis). The first hypothesis predicts a positive relationship between basal metabolic rate (BMR) and energy expenditure (DEE) because of the higher energy demands of the metabolic system at rest. The second hypothesis predicts a trade-off between different body functions, with a reduction of the BMR as a way to compensate for increased daytime energetic expenditure.

Evolutionary and demographic consequences of phenological mismatches.

Climate change has often led to unequal shifts in the seasonal timing (phenology) of interacting species, such as consumers and their resource, leading to phenological 'mismatches'. Mismatches occur when the time at which a consumer species's demands for a resource are high does not match with the period when this resource is abundant. Here, we review the evolutionary and population-level consequences of such mismatches and how these depend on other ecological factors, such as additional drivers of selection and density-dependent recruitment.

Phenological mismatch drives selection on elevation, but not on slope, of breeding time plasticity in a wild songbird.

Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism for populations to respond to fluctuating environments, yet may be insufficient to adapt to a directionally changing environment. To study whether plasticity can evolve under current climate change, we quantified selection and genetic variation in both the elevation (RN ) and slope (RN ) of the breeding time reaction norm in a long-term (1973-2016) study population of great tits (Parus major). The optimal RN (the caterpillar biomass peak date regressed against the temperature used as cue by great tits) changed over time, whereas the optimal RN did not.

Environmental coupling of heritability and selection is rare and of minor evolutionary significance in wild populations.

Predicting the rate of adaptation to environmental change in wild populations is important for understanding evolutionary change. However, predictions may be unreliable if the two key variables affecting the rate of evolutionary change-heritability and selection-are both affected by the same environmental variable. To determine how general such an environmentally induced coupling of heritability and selection is, and how this may influence the rate of adaptation, we made use of freely accessible, open data on pedigreed wild populations to answer this question at the broadest possible scale.

Maternal Effects in a Wild Songbird Are Environmentally Plastic but Only Marginally Alter the Rate of Adaptation.

Despite ample evidence for the presence of maternal effects (MEs) in a variety of traits and strong theoretical indications for their evolutionary consequences, empirical evidence to what extent MEs can influence evolutionary responses to selection remains ambiguous. We tested the degree to which MEs can alter the rate of adaptation of a key life-history trait, clutch size, using an individual-based model approach parameterized with experimental data from a long-term study of great tits (Parus major). We modeled two types of MEs: (i) an environmentally plastic ME, in which the relationship between maternal and offspring clutch size depended on the maternal environment via offspring condition, and (ii) a fixed ME, in which this relationship was constant.

Climate change leads to differential shifts in the timing of annual cycle stages in a migratory bird.

Shifts in reproductive phenology due to climate change have been well documented in many species but how, within the same species, other annual cycle stages (e.g. moult, migration) shift relative to the timing of breeding has rarely been studied.

What genomic data can reveal about eco-evolutionary dynamics.

Recognition that evolution operates on the same timescale as ecological processes has motivated growing interest in eco-evolutionary dynamics. Nonetheless, generating sufficient data to test predictions about eco-evolutionary dynamics has proved challenging, particularly in natural contexts. Here we argue that genomic data can be integrated into the study of eco-evolutionary dynamics in ways that deepen our understanding of the interplay between ecology and evolution.

Recent natural selection causes adaptive evolution of an avian polygenic trait.

We used extensive data from a long-term study of great tits () in the United Kingdom and Netherlands to better understand how genetic signatures of selection translate into variation in fitness and phenotypes. We found that genomic regions under differential selection contained candidate genes for bill morphology and used genetic architecture analyses to confirm that these genes, especially the collagen gene , explained variation in bill length. variation was associated with reproductive success, which, combined with spatiotemporal patterns of bill length, suggested ongoing selection for longer bills in the United Kingdom.

Genomic Quantitative Genetics to Study Evolution in the Wild.

Quantitative genetic theory provides a means of estimating the evolutionary potential of natural populations. However, this approach was previously only feasible in systems where the genetic relatedness between individuals could be inferred from pedigrees or experimental crosses. The genomic revolution opened up the possibility of obtaining the realized proportion of genome shared among individuals in natural populations of virtually any species, which could promise (more) accurate estimates of quantitative genetic parameters in virtually any species.