Seasonality and the persistence of vector-borne pathogens.

Many vector-borne diseases are affected by the seasonality of the environment. Yet, seasonality can act on distinct steps of the life cycle of the pathogen and it is often difficult to predict the influence of the periodic fluctuations of the environment on the basic reproduction ratio of vector-borne pathogens. Here, we analyse a general vector-borne disease model and we account for periodic fluctuations of different components of the pathogen's life cycle.

Winter is coming: Pathogen emergence in seasonal environments.

Many infectious diseases exhibit seasonal dynamics driven by periodic fluctuations of the environment. Predicting the risk of pathogen emergence at different points in time is key for the development of effective public health strategies. Here we study the impact of seasonality on the probability of emergence of directly transmitted pathogens under different epidemiological scenarios.