A simplified seasonal forecasting strategy, applied to wind and solar power in Europe.

We demonstrate levels of skill for forecasts of seasonal-mean wind speed and solar irradiance in Europe, using seasonal forecast systems available from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). While skill is patchy, there is potential for the development of climate services for the energy sector. Following previous studies, we show that, where there is skill, a simple linear regression-based method using the hindcast and forecast ensemble means provides a straightforward approach for producing calibrated probabilistic seasonal forecasts.