Bayesian space-time regression models are helpful tools to describe and predict the distribution of infectious disease outbreaks and to delineate high-risk areas for disease control. In these models, structured and unstructured spatial and temporal effects account for various forms of non-independence amongst case counts across spatial units. Structured spatial effects capture correlations in case counts amongst neighboring provinces arising from shared risk factors or population connectivity.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFThe genetic diversity of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) poses a challenge to the successful control of the disease, and it is important to identify the emergence of different strains in endemic settings. The objective of this study was to evaluate the sampling of clinically healthy livestock at slaughterhouses as a strategy for genomic FMDV surveillance. Serum samples ( = 11,875) and oropharyngeal fluid (OPF) samples ( = 5045) were collected from clinically healthy cattle and buffalo on farms in eight provinces in southern and northern Vietnam (2015-2019) to characterize viral diversity.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFAs countries with endemic canine rabies progress towards elimination by 2030, it will become necessary to employ techniques to help plan, monitor, and confirm canine rabies elimination. Sequencing can provide critical information to inform control and vaccination strategies by identifying genetically distinct virus variants that may have different host reservoir species or geographic distributions. However, many rabies testing laboratories lack the resources or expertise for sequencing, especially in remote or rural areas where human rabies deaths are highest.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFOutbreaks of emerging coronaviruses in the past two decades and the current pandemic of a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) that emerged in China highlight the importance of this viral family as a zoonotic public health threat. To gain a better understanding of coronavirus presence and diversity in wildlife at wildlife-human interfaces in three southern provinces in Viet Nam 2013-2014, we used consensus Polymerase Chain Reactions to detect coronavirus sequences. In comparison to previous studies, we observed high proportions of positive samples among field rats (34.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFIn recent years, foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) serotype O, topotype Middle East-South Asia (ME-SA), lineage Ind-2001d has spread from the Indian subcontinent to the Middle East, North Africa, and Southeast Asia. In the current report, we describe the first detection of this lineage in Vietnam in May, 2015 in Đắk Nông province. Three subsequent outbreaks caused by genetically related viruses occurred between May-October, 2015 after which the virus was not detected in clinical outbreaks for at least 15 subsequent months.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFFoot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is endemic in Vietnam, a country that plays an important role in livestock trade within Southeast Asia. The large populations of FMDV-susceptible species in Vietnam are important components of food production and of the national livelihood. In this study, we investigated the phylogeny of FMDV O/PanAsia in Vietnam, reconstructing the virus' ancestral host species (pig, cattle or buffalo), clinical stage (subclinical carrier or clinically affected) and geographical location.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFThis paper presents the results of spatio-temporal analyses and epidemic modelling of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks that occurred in four provinces of the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam between January and March 2009. Significant spatio-temporal interaction of disease risk was observed within a distance of 10 km and 12 days following the detected onset of clinical signs. We estimate that the household-to-household infection rate within a commune was approximately 50 times greater than the household-to-household infection rate between communes.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFA cross-sectional survey of management practices of itinerant grazing ducks (known as field running ducks) was conducted during March 2008 in four districts of Can Tho and Bac Lieu provinces in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam. The objective was to characterize the demographic structure of the itinerant grazing duck population and the management practices which might be related to the continuing outbreaks of H5N1 avian influenza in this region. Broiler duck flocks were owned by 55% of survey respondents, and layer flocks by 53%.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFOutbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza A subtype H5N1 have occurred in Vietnam as a series of epidemic waves since December 2003. We describe the spatial and temporal patterns of the HPAI H5N1 epidemics in the Red River Delta in the north (785 outbreaks in 606 communes) and the Mekong River Delta in the south of Vietnam (1313 outbreaks in 837 communes), where the epidemics were concentrated. Throughout the study period the percentage of outbreaks affecting ducks increased steadily to a peak of 78% during the 2006/2007 epidemic in both deltas.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFProc Natl Acad Sci U S A
March 2008
The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus that emerged in southern China in the mid-1990s has in recent years evolved into the first HPAI panzootic. In many countries where the virus was detected, the virus was successfully controlled, whereas other countries face periodic reoccurrence despite significant control efforts. A central question is to understand the factors favoring the continuing reoccurrence of the virus.
View Article and Find Full Text PDFThe objectives of this study were to describe the spatio-temporal pattern of an epidemic of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in Vietnam and to identify potential risk factors for the introduction and maintenance of infection within the poultry population. The results indicate that during the time period 2004-early 2006 a sequence of three epidemic waves occurred in Vietnam as distinct spatial and temporal clusters. The risk of outbreak occurrence increased with a greater percentage of rice paddy fields, increasing domestic water bird and chicken density.
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