Publications by authors named "Peter W F Smith"

Objective: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is common in older adults, with more than 70% of diagnoses in people aged ≥65 years. Despite this, there is a knowledge gap regarding longer-term outcomes in this population. Here, we identify those older people most at risk of poor quality of life (QoL) and health status in the five years following CRC treatment.

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Aim: Depression experienced by people with colorectal cancer (CRC) is an important clinical problem affecting quality of life. Recognition of depression at key points in the pathway enables timely referral to support. This study aimed to examine depression before and 5 years after surgery to examine its prevalence and identify determinants.

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Background: The ColoREctal Wellbeing (CREW) study is the first study to prospectively recruit colorectal cancer (CRC) patients, carry out the baseline assessment pre-treatment and follow patients up over five years to delineate the impact of treatment on health and wellbeing.

Methods: CRC patients received questionnaires at baseline (pre-surgery), 3, 9, 15, 24, 36, 48 and 60 months. The primary outcome was Quality of Life in Adult Cancer Survivors (QLACS); self-efficacy, mental health, social support, affect, socio-demographics, clinical and treatment characteristics were also assessed.

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This paper examines differences in health-and-social care utilisation for individuals with physical and/or mental health problems. Logistic regression models are used to determine disparity in the percentage of General Household/Lifestyle Survey participants with physical compared to mental health problems receiving disability benefits or health care services between 2000 and 2011. Our findings of a relative underutilisation of secondary health care combined with a relative overutilization of out-of-work benefits by individuals with mental health problems is novel to the field of rehabilitative health care.

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Multilevel multiple membership models account for situations where lower level units are nested within multiple higher level units from the same classification. Not accounting correctly for such multiple membership structures leads to biased results. The use of a multiple membership model requires selection of weights reflecting the hypothesized contribution of each level two unit and their relationship to the level one outcome.

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Purpose: There is a growing emphasis on self-management of cancer aftercare. Little is known about patient's self-efficacy (confidence) to manage illness-related problems and how this changes over time. This paper describes the patterns of self-efficacy for managing illness-related problems amongst colorectal cancer patients in the 2 years following diagnosis.

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Age and sex patterns of migration are essential for understanding drivers of population change and heterogeneity of migrant groups. We develop a hierarchical Bayesian model to estimate such patterns for international migration in the European Union and European Free Trade Association from 2002 to 2008, which was a period of time when the number of members expanded from 19 to 31 countries. Our model corrects for the inadequacies and inconsistencies in the available data and estimates the missing patterns.

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Background: The obesity epidemic has major public health consequences. Expert dietetic and behavioural counselling with intensive follow-up is effective, but resource requirements severely restrict widespread implementation in primary care, where most patients are managed. We aimed to estimate the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of an internet-based behavioural intervention (POWeR+) combined with brief practice nurse support in primary care.

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N-of-1 study designs involve the collection and analysis of repeated measures data from an individual not using an intervention and using an intervention. This study explores the use of semi-parametric and parametric bootstrap tests in the analysis of N-of-1 studies under a single time series framework in the presence of autocorrelation. When the Type I error rates of bootstrap tests are compared to Wald tests, our results show that the bootstrap tests have more desirable properties.

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Demographic forecasts are inherently uncertain. Nevertheless, an appropriate description of this uncertainty is a key underpinning of informed decision making. In recent decades various methods have been developed to describe the uncertainty of future populations and their structures, but the uptake of such tools amongst the practitioners of official population statistics has been lagging behind.

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In this article, we develop a fully integrated and dynamic Bayesian approach to forecast populations by age and sex. The approach embeds the Lee-Carter type models for forecasting the age patterns, with associated measures of uncertainty, of fertility, mortality, immigration, and emigration within a cohort projection model. The methodology may be adapted to handle different data types and sources of information.

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The paper investigates two different multilevel approaches, the multilevel cross-classified and the multiple-membership models, for the analysis of interviewer effects on wave non-response in longitudinal surveys. The models proposed incorporate both interviewer and area effects to account for the non-hierarchical structure, the influence of potentially more than one interviewer across waves and possible confounding of area and interviewer effects arising from the non-random allocation of interviewers across areas. The methods are compared by using a data set: the UK Family and Children Survey.

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HIV prevalence in China is less than one per cent, but the absolute number of people living with HIV/AIDS is large and growing. Given the limited scope of any potential cure for HIV, prevention plays a crucial role in controlling the epidemic. This paper examines the evolution of HIV awareness among women in China between 1997 and 2005.

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Background: There are over 25 million people worldwide living with or beyond cancer and this number is increasing. Cancer survivors face a range of problems following primary treatment. One of the most frequently reported and distressing symptoms experienced by cancer survivors is fatigue.

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The HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa has caused many children to become orphaned and vulnerable. Recent studies show that orphaned and vulnerable children (OVC) lack the basic necessities for survival and development. These children are particularly at high risk of poor health and poverty.

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Consistency in reporting contraceptive use between spouses is little understood, especially in developing settings. This research challenges the accuracy of measuring contraceptive prevalence rate, which is traditionally calculated based on women's responses. Multinomial logistic regression techniques are employed on a couple dataset from the 1999-2000 Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) to investigate the consistency in reporting condom use between husbands and wives.

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Connections between graphical Gaussian models and classical single-factor models are obtained by parameterizing the single-factor model as a graphical Gaussian model. Models are represented by independence graphs, and associations between each manifest variable and the latent factor are measured by factor partial correlations. Power calculations for the single-factor graphical Gaussian model are facilitated by expressing the manifest partial correlations as functions of the factor partial correlations.

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Objective: To assess different management strategies for acute infective conjunctivitis.

Design: Open, factorial, randomised controlled trial.

Setting: 30 general practices in southern England.

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Objective: A considerable gap exists between contraceptive awareness and use. Traditional approaches to measuring awareness are inadequate to properly understand the linkages between awareness and use. The objective of this study was to examine the degree of men's modern contraceptive awareness in Bangladesh and the associated determinants and further testing of a hypothesis that current contraceptive use confers a high degree of method awareness.

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This article attempts to evaluate men's approval of family planning in Bangladesh using the couple data set from the recent Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS), 1999-2000. Family planning approval is addressed both from individual and couple perspectives. Analysis of BDHS data shows that about 85% of the wives report that their husbands approve of family planning, which is lower than the wives' own approval rate (95%).

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Background: Non-adherence to immunosuppressants is a major cause of renal transplant failure. Interventions to improve adherence need to target modifiable risk factors.

Methods: Adherence was measured using the 'gold standard' measure of electronic monitoring in 58 adult renal transplant recipients from a UK transplant unit.

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We propose models for longitudinal, or otherwise clustered, ordinal data. The association between subunit responses is characterized by dependence ratios (Ekholm, Smith, and McDonald, 1995, Biometrika 82, 847-854), which are extended from the binary to the multicategory case. The joint probabilities of the subunit responses are expressed as explicit functions of the marginal means and the dependence ratios of all orders, obtaining a computational advantage for likelihood-based inference.

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