Estimating the Seroincidence of Scrub Typhus using Antibody Dynamics after Infection.

Scrub typhus, a vector-borne bacterial infection, is an important but neglected disease globally. Accurately characterizing the burden is challenging because of nonspecific symptoms and limited diagnostics. Prior seroepidemiology studies have struggled to find consensus cutoffs that permit comparisons of estimates across contexts and time.

Estimating seroconversion rates accounting for repeated infections by approximate Bayesian computation.

This study presents a novel approach for inferring the incidence of infections by employing a quantitative model of the serum antibody response. Current methodologies often overlook the cumulative effect of an individual's infection history, making it challenging to obtain a marginal distribution for antibody concentrations. Our proposed approach leverages approximate Bayesian computation to simulate cross-sectional antibody responses and compare these to observed data, factoring in the impact of repeated infections.

When case reporting becomes untenable: Can sewer networks tell us where COVID-19 transmission occurs?

Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater is a valuable approach to track COVID-19 transmission. Designing wastewater surveillance (WWS) with representative sampling sites and quantifiable results requires knowledge of the sewerage system and virus fate and transport. We developed a multi-level WWS system to track COVID-19 in Atlanta using an adaptive nested sampling strategy.

Dose-response relationship of and potato in greenhouse and experiments.

is the causative agent of bacterial wilt of potato and other vegetable crops. Contaminated irrigation water contributes to the dissemination of this pathogen but the exact concentration or biological threshold to cause an infection is unknown. In two greenhouse experiments, potted potato plants () were exposed to a single irrigation with 50 mL water (non-invasive soil-soak inoculation) containing no or 10 - 10 CFU/mL .

Dose response for Salmonella Typhimurium and Enteritidis and other nontyphoid enteric salmonellae.

This dose response assessment combines data from 6 human challenge studies and 44 outbreaks to determine infectivity and pathogenicity of several serotypes of nontyphoid Salmonella. Outcomes focus on the major serotypes Salmonella Enteritidis and Typhimurium, showing that Typhimurium is less infectious and has a lower probability of causing acute illness in infected subjects. The dose response relation of Salmonella Enteritidis is less steep than that of Typhimurium, indicating greater heterogeneity in infectivity and pathogenicity.

Seroincidence of Enteric Fever, Juba, South Sudan.

We applied a new serosurveillance tool to estimate typhoidal Salmonella burden using samples collected during 2020 from a population in Juba, South Sudan. By using dried blood spot testing, we found an enteric fever seroincidence rate of 30/100 person-years and cumulative incidence of 74% over a 4-year period.

Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Transmission in Georgia, USA, February 1-July 13, 2020.

The serial interval and effective reproduction number for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) are heterogenous, varying by demographic characteristics, region, and period. During February 1-July 13, 2020, we identified 4,080 transmission pairs in Georgia, USA, by using contact tracing information from COVID-19 cases reported to the Georgia Department of Public Health. We examined how various transmission characteristics were affected by symptoms, demographics, and period (during shelter-in-place and after subsequent reopening) and estimated the time course of reproduction numbers for all 159 Georgia counties.

Noroviruses are highly infectious but there is strong variation in host susceptibility and virus pathogenicity.

Noroviruses are a major public health concern: their high infectivity and environmental persistence have been documented in several studies. Genetic sequencing shows that noroviruses are highly variable, and exhibit rapid evolution. A few human challenge studies have been performed with norovirus, leading to estimates of their infectivity.

Strongly Heterogeneous Transmission of COVID-19 in Mainland China: Local and Regional Variation.

The outbreak of novel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in the city of Wuhan, China, with a period of rapid initial spread. Transmission on a regional and then national scale was promoted by intense travel during the holiday period of the Chinese New Year. We studied the variation in transmission of COVID-19, locally in Wuhan, as well as on a larger spatial scale, among different cities and even among provinces in mainland China.

Designing a typhoid environmental surveillance study: A simulation model for optimum sampling site allocation.

Environmental surveillance can be used for monitoring enteric disease in a population by detecting pathogens, shed by infected people, in sewage. Detection of pathogens depends on many factors: infection rates and shedding in the population, pathogen fate in the sewerage network, and also sampling sites, sample size, and assay sensitivity. This complexity makes the design of sampling strategies challenging, which creates a need for mathematical modeling to guide decision making.

Tracing the Origin of Food-borne Disease Outbreaks: A Network Model Approach.

Background: Food-borne disease outbreaks constitute a large health burden on society. One of the challenges when investigating such outbreaks is to trace the origin of the outbreak. In this study, we consider a network model to determine the spatial origin of the contaminated food product that caused the outbreak.

QMRA of adenovirus in drinking water at a drinking water treatment plant using UV and chlorine dioxide disinfection.

According to the Dutch Drinking Water Act of 2011, Dutch drinking water suppliers must conduct a Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA) for infection by the following index pathogens: enterovirus, Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium and Giardia at least once every four years in order to assess the microbial safety of drinking water. The health-based target for safe drinking water is set at less than one infection per 10 000 persons per year. At Evides Water Company, concern has arisen whether their drinking water treatment, mainly based on UV inactivation and chlorine dioxide, reduces levels of adenovirus (AdV) sufficiently.

Quantitative Assessment of the Health Risk for Livestock When Animal Viruses Are Applied in Human Oncolytic Therapy: A Case Study for Seneca Valley Virus.

Some viruses cause tumor regression and can be used to treat cancer patients; these viruses are called oncolytic viruses. To assess whether oncolytic viruses from animal origin excreted by patients pose a health risk for livestock, a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) was performed to estimate the risk for the Dutch pig industry after environmental release of Seneca Valley virus (SVV). The QRA assumed SVV excretion in stool by one cancer patient on Day 1 in the Netherlands, discharge of SVV with treated wastewater into the river Meuse, downstream intake of river water for drinking water production, and consumption of this drinking water by pigs.

Children Are Exposed to Fecal Contamination via Multiple Interconnected Pathways: A Network Model for Exposure Assessment.

In recent decades, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) has been widely used to assess exposure to fecal microbes and associated health risks. In this study, a multipathway exposure assessment model was developed to evaluate exposure to fecal microbes for children under 5 in highly contaminated urban environments. Children had contact with various environmental compartments.

Immune response-eliciting exposure to Campylobacter vastly exceeds the incidence of clinically overt campylobacteriosis but is associated with similar risk factors: A nationwide serosurvey in the Netherlands.

Background: We aimed to estimate population-level exposure to Campylobacter and associated risk factors, using three approaches for serological data analysis.

Methods: Nationwide, population-based serosurvey in the Netherlands (Feb 2006-Jun 2007). Anti-Campylobacter IgG, IgM and IgA were measured using ELISA, and analysed via: a) seroincidence estimation, using reference values of antibody peak levels and decay rates over-time after Campylobacter exposure; b) two normal distributions of true positives/negatives fitted to the IgG distribution to derive seroprevalence and individual probability of being positive/negative; and c) IgG levels.

Infectivity and RNA Persistence of a Norovirus Surrogate, the Tulane Virus, in Oysters.

Oysters, being filter feeders, can accumulate some human pathogens such as norovirus, a highly infectious calicivirus, most common cause of acute gastroenteritis worldwide. Accumulated virus decays over a period of days to weeks, possibly rendering contaminated oysters safe again. Sensitive molecular methods have been set up for shellfish analysis but without answering the question of infectious virus detection.

Correction: Time to acquire and lose carriership of ESBL/pAmpC producing E. coli in humans in the Netherlands.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.

Time to acquire and lose carriership of ESBL/pAmpC producing E. coli in humans in the Netherlands.

A subset of the study population from a cross-sectional study of carriership of ESBL/pAmpC-producing E. coli (ESBL-E) in the general population was followed up by five successive samples over an approximate half year period, leading to six samples in 333 persons. Fecal samples were cultured and analyzed for the presence of E.

Acute illness from Campylobacter jejuni may require high doses while infection occurs at low doses.

Data from a set of different studies on the infectivity and pathogenicity of Campylobacter jejuni were analyzed with a multilevel model, allowing for effects of host species (nonhuman primates and humans) and different strains of the pathogen. All challenge studies involved high doses of the pathogen, resulting in all exposed subjects to become infected. In only one study a dose response effect (increasing trend with dose) for infection was observed.

Identifying the source of food-borne disease outbreaks: An application of Bayesian variable selection.

Early identification of contaminated food products is crucial in reducing health burdens of food-borne disease outbreaks. Analytic case-control studies are primarily used in this identification stage by comparing exposures in cases and controls using logistic regression. Standard epidemiological analysis practice is not formally defined and the combination of currently applied methods is subject to issues such as response misclassification, missing values, multiple testing problems and small sample estimation problems resulting in biased and possibly misleading results.

Multipathway Quantitative Assessment of Exposure to Fecal Contamination for Young Children in Low-Income Urban Environments in Accra, Ghana: The SaniPath Analytical Approach.

Lack of adequate sanitation results in fecal contamination of the environment and poses a risk of disease transmission via multiple exposure pathways. To better understand how eight different sources contribute to overall exposure to fecal contamination, we quantified exposure through multiple pathways for children under 5 years old in four high-density, low-income, urban neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana. We collected more than 500 hours of structured observation of behaviors of 156 children, 800 household surveys, and 1,855 environmental samples.

Assessment of Fecal Exposure Pathways in Low-Income Urban Neighborhoods in Accra, Ghana: Rationale, Design, Methods, and Key Findings of the SaniPath Study.

Rapid urbanization has contributed to an urban sanitation crisis in low-income countries. Residents in low-income, urban neighborhoods often have poor sanitation infrastructure and services and may experience frequent exposure to fecal contamination through a range of pathways. There are little data to prioritize strategies to decrease exposure to fecal contamination in these complex and highly contaminated environments, and public health priorities are rarely considered when planning urban sanitation investments.

Quantification of Survival and Infection in an Model of the Human Intestinal Tract as Proxy for Foodborne Pathogens.

Different techniques are available for assessing differences in virulence of bacterial foodborne pathogens. The use of animal models or human volunteers is not expedient for various reasons; the use of epidemiological data is often hampered by lack of crucial data. In this paper, we describe a static, sequential gastrointestinal tract (GIT) model system in which foodborne pathogens are exposed to simulated gastric and intestinal contents of the human digestive tract, including the interaction of pathogens with the intestinal epithelium.

Evaluation by latent class analysis of a magnetic capture based DNA extraction followed by real-time qPCR as a new diagnostic method for detection of Echinococcus multilocularis in definitive hosts.

A new method, based on a magnetic capture based DNA extraction followed by qPCR, was developed for the detection of the zoonotic parasite Echinococcus multilocularis in definitive hosts. Latent class analysis was used to compare this new method with the currently used phenol-chloroform DNA extraction followed by single tube nested PCR. In total, 60 red foxes and coyotes from three different locations were tested with both molecular methods and the sedimentation and counting technique (SCT) or intestinal scraping technique (IST).