A comparison of numerical approaches for statistical inference with stochastic models.

Unlabelled: Due to our limited knowledge about complex environmental systems, our predictions of their behavior under different scenarios or decision alternatives are subject to considerable uncertainty. As this uncertainty can often be relevant for societal decisions, the consideration, quantification and communication of it is very important. Due to internal stochasticity, often poorly known influence factors, and only partly known mechanisms, in many cases, a stochastic model is needed to get an adequate description of uncertainty.

Longevity interventions temporally scale healthspan in .

Human centenarians and longevity mutants of model organisms show lower incidence rates of late-life morbidities than the average population. However, whether longevity is caused by a compression of the portion of life spent in a state of morbidity, ., "sickspan," is highly debated even in isogenic .

Towards a comprehensive uncertainty assessment in environmental research and decision support.

Uncertainty quantification is very important in environmental management to allow decision makers to consider the reliability of predictions of the consequences of decision alternatives and relate them to their risk attitudes and the uncertainty about their preferences. Nevertheless, uncertainty quantification in environmental decision support is often incomplete and the robustness of the results regarding assumptions made for uncertainty quantification is often not investigated. In this article, an attempt is made to demonstrate how uncertainty can be considered more comprehensively in environmental research and decision support by combining well-established with rarely applied statistical techniques.

Integrating uncertainty of preferences and predictions in decision models: An application to regional wastewater planning.

Decision-making in environmental management requires eliciting preferences of stakeholders and predicting outcomes of decision alternatives. Usually, preferences and predictions are both uncertain. Uncertainty of predictions can be tackled by multi-attribute utility theory, but the uncertainty of preferences remains a challenge.

Thin film piezoelectrics for bulk acoustic wave (BAW) acoustophoresis.

Acoustophoresis, the movement of particles with sound, has evolved as a promising handling tool for micrometer-sized particles. Recent developments in thin film deposition technologies have enabled the reproducible fabrication of thin film piezoelectric materials for miniaturized ultrasound transducers. In this study, we combine both technologies and present the first implementation of a thin film Pb(Zr,Ti)O (PZT) transducer as actuation source for bulk acoustic wave (BAW) acoustophoresis.

Acoustic Compressibility of Caenorhabditis elegans.

The acoustic compressibility of Caenorhabditis elegans is a necessary parameter for further understanding the underlying physics of acoustic manipulation techniques of this widely used model organism in biological sciences. In this work, numerical simulations were combined with experimental trajectory velocimetry of L1 C. elegans larvae to estimate the acoustic compressibility of C.

Ecological assessment of river networks: From reach to catchment scale.

Freshwater ecosystems are increasingly under threat as they are confronted with multiple anthropogenic impairments. This calls for comprehensive management strategies to counteract, or even prevent, long-term impacts on habitats and their biodiversity, as well as on their ecological functions and services. The basis for the efficient management and effective conservation of any ecosystem is sufficient knowledge on the state of the system and its response to external influence factors.

Molecular scale structure and dynamics at an ionic liquid/electrode interface.

After a century of research, the potential-dependent ion distribution at electrode/electrolyte interfaces is still under debate. In particular for solvent-free electrolytes such as room-temperature ionic liquids, classical theories for the electrical double layer are not applicable. Using a combination of in situ high-energy X-ray reflectivity and impedance spectroscopy measurements, we determined this distribution with sub-molecular resolution.

Modeling Macroinvertebrate Community Dynamics in Stream Mesocosms Contaminated with a Pesticide.

Modeling community dynamics of aquatic invertebrates is an important but challenging task, in particular in ecotoxicological risk assessment. Systematic parameter estimation and rigorous assessment of model uncertainty are often lacking in such applications. We applied the mechanistic food web model Streambugs to investigate the temporal development of the macroinvertebrate community in an ecotoxicological mesocosm experiment with pulsed contaminations with the insecticide thiacloprid.

Microfluidic droplet handling by bulk acoustic wave (BAW) acoustophoresis.

Droplet microfluidics has emerged as a prospering field for lab-on-a-chip devices, where droplets serve as liquid vessels e.g. for biochemical reagents.

Solid-liquid interfaces of ionic liquid solutions--Interfacial layering and bulk correlations.

The influence of the polar, aprotic solvent propylene carbonate on the interfacial structure of the ionic liquid (IL) 1-butyl-1-methylpyrrolidinium tris(pentafluoroethyl)trifluorophosphate on sapphire was investigated by high-energy x-ray reflectivity. Experiments at solvent concentrations between 17 mol. % and 83 mol.

The conceptual foundation of environmental decision support.

Environmental decision support intends to use the best available scientific knowledge to help decision makers find and evaluate management alternatives. The goal of this process is to achieve the best fulfillment of societal objectives. This requires a careful analysis of (i) how scientific knowledge can be represented and quantified, (ii) how societal preferences can be described and elicited, and (iii) how these concepts can best be used to support communication with authorities, politicians, and the public in environmental management.

Strategic rehabilitation planning of piped water networks using multi-criteria decision analysis.

To overcome the difficulties of strategic asset management of water distribution networks, a pipe failure and a rehabilitation model are combined to predict the long-term performance of rehabilitation strategies. Bayesian parameter estimation is performed to calibrate the failure and replacement model based on a prior distribution inferred from three large water utilities in Switzerland. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and scenario planning build the framework for evaluating 18 strategic rehabilitation alternatives under future uncertainty.

Extension of pipe failure models to consider the absence of data from replaced pipes.

Predictions of the expected number of failures of water distribution network pipes are important to develop an optimal management strategy. A number of probabilistic pipe failure models have been proposed in the literature for this purpose. They have to be calibrated on failure records.

Bridging the gap between theoretical ecology and real ecosystems: modeling invertebrate community composition in streams.

For the first time, we combine concepts of theoretical food web modeling, the metabolic theory of ecology, and ecological stoichiometry with the use of functional trait databases to predict the coexistence of invertebrate taxa in streams. We developed a mechanistic model that describes growth, death, and respiration of different taxa dependent on various environmental influence factors to estimate survival or extinction. Parameter and input uncertainty is propagated to model results.

Age-related changes in the plasticity and toughness of human cortical bone at multiple length scales.

The structure of human cortical bone evolves over multiple length scales from its basic constituents of collagen and hydroxyapatite at the nanoscale to osteonal structures at near-millimeter dimensions, which all provide the basis for its mechanical properties. To resist fracture, bone's toughness is derived intrinsically through plasticity (e.g.

Exposure of the Irish population to PBDEs in food: consideration of parameter uncertainty and variability for risk assessment.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) are brominated flame retardants used to retard the ignition and/or spread of fire. PBDEs are used in various consumer products, such as textiles, mattresses and TV screens. This study presents a chemical risk assessment for the Irish population based on exposure to PBDEs from food.

A Bayesian network model for integrative river rehabilitation planning and management.

As rehabilitation of previously channelized rivers becomes more common worldwide, flexible integrative modeling tools are needed to help predict the morphological, hydraulic, economic, and ecological consequences of the rehabilitation activities. Such predictions can provide the basis for planning and long-term management efforts that attempt to balance the diverse interests of river system stakeholders. We have previously reported on a variety of modeling methods and decision support concepts that can assist with various aspects of the river rehabilitation process.

Modeling potential herbicide loss to surface waters on the Swiss plateau.

Lack of sufficiently detailed data often limits the applicability of complex transport-reaction models for estimating potential herbicide loss to surface waters. Therefore, there is also a need for simple models that are easy to apply but still capture the main features of the underlying processes. In this study, a simple regression model was developed to assess the vulnerability of catchments in the Swiss Plateau to diffuse herbicide loss to surface waters.

A water resources threshold and its implications for food security.

Cereal import has played a crucial role in compensating local water deficit. A quantitative account of water deficit and cereal import relations therefore is of significance for predicting future food import demand and formulating corresponding national and international policies. On the basis of data for countries in Asia and Africa, we estimated a water resources threshold with respect to cereal import.

Practical identifiability of ASM2d parameters--systematic selection and tuning of parameter subsets.

In many applications, some parameters of the Activated Sludge Model No. 2d (ASM2d) need calibration. Since ASM2d usually is overparameterized with respect to the available data, the subset of calibration parameters is not unique.

Application of Lime ( Citrus aurantifolia ) Juice to Drinking Water and Food as a Cholera-Preventive Measure.

The protective activity of lime juice against cholera was suggested in a recent case-control study from Guinea-Bissau, On the basis of these findings, we investigated the vibriocidal properties of juice from lime ( Citrus aurantifolia ) fruits added to well water, tap water, and food samples. Well-water samples showed initial pH values from 3.5 to 4,9 whereas water samples from municipal or private taps showed initial pH values between 7.