Modeling the effect of imported malaria on the elimination programme in KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa.

Introduction: with imported malaria cases in a given population, the question arises as to what extent the local cases are a consequence of the imports or not. We perform a modeling analysis for a specific area, in a region aspiring for malaria-free status.

Methods: data on malaria cases over ten years is subjected to a compartmental model which is assumed to be operating close to the equilibrium state.

An SEIR model with infected immigrants and recovered emigrants.

We present a deterministic SEIR model of the said form. The population in point can be considered as consisting of a local population together with a migrant subpopulation. The migrants come into the local population for a short stay.

A population model for the 2017/18 listeriosis outbreak in South Africa.

We introduce a compartmental model of ordinary differential equations for the population dynamics of listeriosis, and we derive a model for analysing a listeriosis outbreak. The model explicitly accommodates neonatal infections. Similarly as is common in cholera modeling, we include a compartment to represent the reservoir of bacteria.

A Dynamical and Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Regression Modelling of Malaria Incidence in Limpopo Province, South Africa.

Recent studies have considered the connections between malaria incidence and climate variables using mathematical and statistical models. Some of the statistical models focused on time series approach based on Box-Jenkins methodology or on dynamic model. The latter approach allows for covariates different from its original lagged values, while the Box-Jenkins does not.

Exploring the Influence of Daily Climate Variables on Malaria Transmission and Abundance of over Nkomazi Local Municipality, Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

The recent resurgence of malaria incidence across epidemic regions in South Africa has been linked to climatic and environmental factors. An in-depth investigation of the impact of climate variability and mosquito abundance on malaria parasite incidence may therefore offer useful insight towards the control of this life-threatening disease. In this study, we investigate the influence of climatic factors on malaria transmission over Nkomazi Municipality.

Exploring the Impact of Climate Variability on Malaria Transmission Using a Dynamic Mosquito-Human Malaria Model.

Introduction: The reasons for malaria resurgence mostly in Africa are yet to be well understood. Although the causes are often linked to regional climate change, it is important to understand the impact of climate variability on the dynamics of the disease. However, this is almost impossible without adequate long-term malaria data over the study areas.

Vaccination Control in a Stochastic SVIR Epidemic Model.

For a stochastic differential equation SVIR epidemic model with vaccination, we prove almost sure exponential stability of the disease-free equilibrium for ℛ(0) < 1, where ℛ(0) denotes the basic reproduction number of the underlying deterministic model. We study an optimal control problem for the stochastic model as well as for the underlying deterministic model. In order to solve the stochastic problem numerically, we use an approximation based on the solution of the deterministic model.