An Ensemble Framework for Projecting the Impact of Lymphatic Filariasis Interventions Across Sub-Saharan Africa at a Fine Spatial Scale.

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease targeted for elimination as a public health problem by 2030. Although mass treatments have led to huge reductions in LF prevalence, some countries or regions may find it difficult to achieve elimination by 2030 owing to various factors, including local differences in transmission. Subnational projections of intervention impact are a useful tool in understanding these dynamics, but correctly characterizing their uncertainty is challenging.

Subnational Projections of Lymphatic Filariasis Elimination Targets in Ethiopia to Support National Level Policy.

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a debilitating, poverty-promoting, neglected tropical disease (NTD) targeted for worldwide elimination as a public health problem (EPHP) by 2030. Evaluating progress towards this target for national programmes is challenging, due to differences in disease transmission and interventions at the subnational level. Mathematical models can help address these challenges by capturing spatial heterogeneities and evaluating progress towards LF elimination and how different interventions could be leveraged to achieve elimination by 2030.

Incidence and geographical distribution of canine leishmaniosis in 2016-2017 in Spain and France.

Leishmania infantum is transmitted by sand flies and causes visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in humans, as well as canine leishmaniosis (CanL) in dogs, the main reservoir of infection in Europe. The infection spread northwards in the last two decades, but case data are scarce, hindering monitoring and evaluation of incidence as is required by European WHO guidelines. We aim to identify the current geographical distribution of CanL incidence in Spain, which has been endemic for CanL, and France, where CanL is emerging.

Elimination or Resurgence: Modelling Lymphatic Filariasis After Reaching the 1% Microfilaremia Prevalence Threshold.

The low prevalence levels associated with lymphatic filariasis elimination pose a challenge for effective disease surveillance. As more countries achieve the World Health Organization criteria for halting mass treatment and move on to surveillance, there is increasing reliance on the utility of transmission assessment surveys (TAS) to measure success. However, the long-term disease outcomes after passing TAS are largely untested.

Progress towards lymphatic filariasis elimination in Ghana from 2000-2016: Analysis of microfilaria prevalence data from 430 communities.

Background: Ghana started its national programme to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF) in 2000, with mass drug administration (MDA) with ivermectin and albendazole as main strategy. We review the progress towards elimination that was made by 2016 for all endemic districts of Ghana and analyze microfilaria (mf) prevalence from sentinel and spot-check sites in endemic districts.

Methods: We reviewed district level data on the history of MDA and outcomes of transmission assessment surveys (TAS).

Are Alternative Strategies Required to Accelerate the Global Elimination of Lymphatic Filariasis? Insights From Mathematical Models.

Background: With the 2020 target year for elimination of lymphatic filariasis (LF) approaching, there is an urgent need to assess how long mass drug administration (MDA) programs with annual ivermectin + albendazole (IA) or diethylcarbamazine + albendazole (DA) would still have to be continued, and how elimination can be accelerated. We addressed this using mathematical modeling.

Methods: We used 3 structurally different mathematical models for LF transmission (EPIFIL, LYMFASIM, TRANSFIL) to simulate trends in microfilariae (mf) prevalence for a range of endemic settings, both for the current annual MDA strategy and alternative strategies, assessing the required duration to bring mf prevalence below the critical threshold of 1%.

Development of QSARs for parameterizing Physiology Based ToxicoKinetic models.

A Quantitative Structure Activity Relationship (QSAR) model was developed in order to predict physicochemical and biochemical properties of industrial chemicals of various groups. This model was based on the solvation equation, originally proposed by Abraham. In this work Abraham's solvation model got parameterized using artificial intelligence techniques such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the prediction of partitioning into kidney, heart, adipose, liver, muscle, brain and lung for the estimation of the bodyweight-normalized maximal metabolic velocity (V) and the Michaelis - Menten constant (K).

Public health impacts of city policies to reduce climate change: findings from the URGENCHE EU-China project.

Background: Climate change is a global threat to health and wellbeing. Here we provide findings of an international research project investigating the health and wellbeing impacts of policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in urban environments.

Methods: Five European and two Chinese city authorities and partner academic organisations formed the project consortium.