Long-term probabilistic temperature projections for all locations.

The climate change projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are based on scenarios for future emissions, but these are not statistically-based and do not have a full probabilistic interpretation. Raftery et al. (Nat Clim Change 7:637-641, 2017) and Liu and Raftery (Commun Earth Environ 2:1-10, 2021) developed probabilistic forecasts for global average temperature change to 2100, but these do not give forecasts for specific parts of the globe.

Country-based rate of emissions reductions should increase by 80% beyond nationally determined contributions to meet the 2 °C target.

The 2015 Paris Agreement aims to keep global warming by 2100 to below 2°C, with 1.5°C as a target. To that end, countries agreed to reduce their emissions by nationally determined contributions (NDCs).