Publications by authors named "Paulos Semuniguse"
To understand the drivers and consequences of malaria in epidemic-prone regions, it is important to know whether epidemics emerge independently in different areas as a consequence of local contingencies, or whether they are synchronised across larger regions as a result of climatic fluctuations and other broad-scale drivers. To address this question, we collected historical malaria surveillance data for the Amhara region of Ethiopia and analysed them to assess the consistency of various indicators of malaria risk and determine the dominant spatial and temporal patterns of malaria within the region. We collected data from a total of 49 districts from 1999-2010.
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- Malaria is a major public health issue in sub-Saharan Africa, especially in Ethiopia, necessitating the development of early-warning systems through environmental monitoring.
- Researchers used SARIMA models to analyze the relationship between malaria cases and satellite-derived environmental factors like rainfall and temperature, highlighting specific lag times for their influences.
- The study found strong correlations between malaria cases and environmental indicators, suggesting that these variables can significantly enhance prediction accuracy for malaria outbreaks in the Amhara region of Ethiopia.