Publications by authors named "Paulo Roberto de Lima Gianfelice"

The COVID-19 pandemic has given rise to a great demand for computational models capable of describing and inferring the evolution of an epidemic outbreak in the short term. In this sense, we introduce , a package that provides a framework for fitting multi-wave epidemic models to data from actual outbreaks of COVID-19 and other infectious diseases.

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The severe acute respiratory syndrome of coronavirus 2 spread globally very quickly, causing great concern at the international level due to the severity of the associated respiratory disease, the so-called COVID-19. Considering Rio de Janeiro city (Brazil) as an example, the first diagnosis of this disease occurred in March 2020, but the exact moment when the local spread of the virus started is uncertain as the Brazilian epidemiological surveillance system was not widely prepared to detect suspected cases of COVID-19 at that time. Improvements in this surveillance system occurred over the pandemic, but due to the complex nature of the disease transmission process, specifying the exact moment of emergence of new community contagion outbreaks is a complicated task.

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