Publications by authors named "Paula Nagler"

In this paper we derive a theoretical model of the spread of a viral infection which we use as basis for an estimation strategy to test four interrelated hypotheses on the relationship between country-level COVID-19 mortality rates and the extent of urban development. Using data covering 81 countries we find evidence that countries with a higher population density, a higher share of the urban population living in the largest city, and countries with a higher urbanization rate had on average the same or fewer COVID-19 fatalities compared to less urbanized countries in 2020. Even though COVID-19 spreads faster in cities, fatalities may be lower, conditional on economic development, trust in government, and a well-functioning health care system.

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We report on the prevalence and patterns of non-farm enterprises in six sub-Saharan African countries, and study their performance in terms of labor productivity, survival and exit, using the World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study - Integrated Surveys on Agriculture (LSMS-ISA). Rural households operate enterprises due to both push and pull factors and tend to do so predominantly in easy-to-enter activities, such as sales and trade, rather than in activities that require higher starting costs, such as transport services, or educational investment, such as professional services. Labor productivity differs widely: rural and female-headed enterprises, those located further away from population centers, and businesses that operate intermittently have lower levels of labor productivity compared to urban and male-owned enterprises, or enterprises that operate throughout the year.

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