Fossil-Fuel Options for Power Sector Net-Zero Emissions with Sequestration Tax Credits.

Three of the main challenges in achieving rapid decarbonization of the electric power sector in the near term are getting to net-zero while maintaining grid reliability and minimizing cost. In this policy analysis, we evaluate the performance of a variety of generation strategies using this "triple objective" including nuclear, renewables with different energy storage options, and carbon-emitting generation with carbon capture and storage (CCS) and direct air capture and storage (DACS) technologies. Given the current U.

On Ambiguity Reduction and the Role of Decision Analysis during the Pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has created a multitude of decision problems for a variety of fields. Questions from the seriousness and breadth of the problem to the effectiveness of proposed mitigation measures have been raised. We assert that the decision sciences have a crucial role to play here, as the questions requiring answers involve complex decision making under both uncertainty and ambiguity.

Shore Power for Vessels Calling at U.S. Ports: Benefits and Costs.

When in port, ships burn marine diesel in on-board generators to produce electricity and are significant contributors to poor local and regional air quality. Supplying ships with grid electricity can reduce these emissions. We use two integrated assessment models to quantify the benefits of reducing the emissions of NOX, SO2, PM2.

An integrated physical dispersion and behavioral response model for risk assessment of radiological dispersion device (RDD) events.

A radiological dispersion device (RDD) or "dirty" bomb is a conventional explosive wrapped in radiological material. Terrorists may use an RDD to disperse radioactive material across a populated area, causing casualties and/or economic damage. Nearly all risk assessment models for RDDs make unrealistic assumptions about public behavior in their health assessments, including assumptions that the public would stand outside in a single location indefinitely.

Ecological risk ranking: development and evaluation of a method for improving public participation in environmental decision making.

This article reports an extension of the Carnegie Mellon risk-ranking method to incorporate ecological risks and their attributes. On the basis of earlier risk-perception studies, we identified a set of 20 relevant attributes for describing health, safety, and environmental hazards in standardized risk summary sheets. In a series of three ranking sessions, 23 laypeople ranked 10 such hazards in a fictional Midwestern U.

What number is "fifty-fifty"?: redistributing excessive 50% responses in elicited probabilities.

Studies using open-ended response modes to elicit probabilistic beliefs have sometimes found an elevated frequency (or blip) at 50 in their response distributions. Our previous research suggests that this is caused by intrusion of the phrase "fifty-fifty," which represents epistemic uncertainty, rather than a true numeric probability of 50%. Such inappropriate responses pose a problem for decision analysts and others relying on probabilistic judgments.

The Relationship between Historic Industrial Site Use and Environmental Contamination.

A methodology is presented for estimating the probability that particular classes of environmental contaminants will be of concern at brownfield redevelopment sites. These probabilities are predicted by a logistics model that is based on qualitative information about site history and status. This qualitative information comprises data that would be collected through a Phase I Environmental Site Assessment (ESA), including historic site use, current use and ownership status, and the nature of adjacent properties.