FORECASTING WITH PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR PERIODIC ARMA MODELS.

Periodic autoregressive moving average (PARMA) models are indicated for time series whose mean, variance, and covariance function vary with the season. In this paper, we develop and implement forecasting procedures for PARMA models. Forecasts are developed using the innovations algorithm, along with an idea of Ansley.

A case of chronic wasting disease in a captive red deer (Cervus elaphus).

A 22-month-old, female red deer (Cervus elaphus) was submitted to the University of Minnesota Veterinary Diagnostic Laboratory for necropsy and chronic wasting disease (CWD) testing. The deer was found positive for the abnormal prion protein in the obex and the retropharyngeal lymph node by immunohistochemical staining. Microscopic lesions of spongiform encephalopathy and immunohistochemical staining patterns and intensity were similar to those in CWD-positive elk and experimentally infected red deer.

Evaluation of progress made by dairy and beef herds enrolled in the Minnesota Johne's Disease Control Program.

Objective: To evaluate progress made by cattle herds in the control of paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) through participation in the Minnesota Johne's Disease Control Program (MNJDCP).

Design: Retrospective records analysis.

Sample Population: Data for dairy and beef herds participating in the MNJDCP.