Development and Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Postoperative Intensive Care Unit Stay in a Broad Surgical Population.

Importance: Despite limited capacity and expensive cost, there are minimal objective data to guide postoperative allocation of intensive care unit (ICU) beds. The Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) uses 8 preoperative variables to predict many common postoperative complications, but it has not yet been evaluated in predicting postoperative ICU admission.

Objective: To determine if the SURPAS model could accurately predict postoperative ICU admission in a broad surgical population.

Comparison of Preoperative Surgical Risk Estimated by Thoracic Surgeons vs a Standardized Surgical Risk Prediction Tool.

Considerable variability exists between surgeons' assessments of a patient's individual preoperative surgical risk. Surgical risk calculators are not routinely used despite their validation. We sought to compare thoracic surgeons' prediction of patients' risk of postoperative adverse outcomes vs a surgical risk calculator, the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS).

Using the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System to Define the "High Risk" Surgical Patient.

Background: Defining a "high risk" surgical population remains challenging. Using the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS), we sought to define "high risk" groups for adverse postoperative outcomes.

Materials And Methods: We retrospectively analyzed the 2009-2018 American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database.

Accuracy of the surgical risk preoperative assessment system universal risk calculator in predicting risk for patients undergoing selected operations in 9 specialty areas.

Background: The universal Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) prediction models for postoperative adverse outcomes have good accuracy for estimating risk in broad surgical populations and for surgical specialties. The accuracy in individual operations has not yet been assessed. The objective of this study was to evaluate the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System in predicting adverse outcomes for selected individual operations.

The preoperative risk tool SURPAS accurately predicts outcomes in emergency surgery.

Background: The Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) uses eight variables to accurately predict postoperative complications but has not been sufficiently studied in emergency surgery. We evaluated SURPAS in emergency surgery, comparing it to the Emergency Surgery Score (ESS).

Methods: SURPAS and ESS estimates of 30-day mortality and overall morbidity were calculated for emergency operations in the 2009-2018 ACS-NSQIP database and compared using observed-to-expected plots and rates, c-indices, and Brier scores.

Relationships between predischarge and postdischarge infectious complications, length of stay, and unplanned readmissions in the ACS NSQIP database.

Background: Postoperative complications, length of index hospital stay, and unplanned hospital readmissions are important metrics reflecting surgical care quality. Postoperative infections represent a substantial proportion of all postoperative complications. We examined the relationships between identification of postoperative infection prehospital and posthospital discharge, length of stay, and unplanned readmissions in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database across nine surgical specialties.

A comparison of the new, parsimonious tool Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System (SURPAS) to the American College of Surgeons (ACS) risk calculator in emergency surgery.

Background: The Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System accurately predicts postoperative complications in elective surgery using only 8 preoperative variables, but its performance in emergency surgery has not been evaluated. We hypothesized that the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System accurately predicts postoperative complications in emergency surgery and compared its performance to that of the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator.

Methods: We calculated the Surgical Risk Preoperative Assessment System and the American College of Surgeons Surgical Risk Calculator risk estimates in a random sample of 1,010 emergency surgery cases from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program 2014 to 2017 database.