Modeling the health and economic implications of adopting a 1-dose 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccination program in adolescents in low/middle-income countries: An analysis of Indonesia.

Background: Recent evidence suggests that 1 dose of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine may have similar effectiveness in reducing HPV infection risk compared to 2 or 3 doses.

Objective: To evaluate the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of implementing a 1-dose or a 2-dose program of the 9-valent HPV vaccine in a low- and middle-income country (LMIC).

Methods: We adapted a dynamic transmission model to the Indonesia setting, and conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using distributions reflecting the uncertainty in levels and durability of protection of a 1-dose that were estimated under a Bayesian framework incorporating 3-year vaccine efficacy data from the KEN SHE trial (base-case) and 10 year effectiveness data from the India IARC study (alternative analysis).

Assessing the long-term implications of age 9 initiation of HPV vaccination on series completion by age 13-15 in the US: projections from an age-structured vaccination model.

Introduction: Routine human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in the US is recommended at ages 11 or 12 years and can be given at age 9. Vaccination completion rates among adolescents 13-15 years in the US remain below the 80% goal. This study evaluated the long-term effects of increasing proactive HPV vaccination initiation rates at age 9 years in completion rates of adolescents.

Comparative effectiveness and safety of ozanimod other oral DMTs in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a synthesis of matching-adjusted indirect comparisons.

Background: Several oral disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) have been approved by the Food and Drug Administration for the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). In the absence of head-to-head randomized data, matching-adjusted indirect comparisons (MAICs) can evaluate the comparative effectiveness and safety of ozanimod other oral DMTs in RRMS.

Objectives: To synthesize results from the published MAICs of ozanimod and other oral DMTs for 2-year outcomes in RRMS.

Structured Literature Review to Identify Human Papillomavirus's Natural History Parameters for Dynamic Population Models of Vaccine Impacts.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a common sexually transmitted virus that can cause cervical cancer and other diseases. Dynamic transmission models (DTMs) have been developed to evaluate the health and economic impacts of HPV vaccination. These models typically include many parameters, such as natural history of the disease, transmission, demographic, behavioral, and screening.

Cost Per Relapse Avoided for Ozanimod Versus Other Selected Disease-Modifying Therapies for Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis in the United States.

Introduction: This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of ozanimod compared with commonly used disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS).

Methods: Annualized relapse rate (ARR) and safety data were obtained from a network meta-analysis (NMA) of clinical trials of RRMS treatments including ozanimod, fingolimod, dimethyl fumarate, teriflunomide, interferon beta-1a, interferon beta-1b, and glatiramer acetate. ARR-related number needed to treat (NNT) relative to placebo and annual total MS-related healthcare costs was used to estimate the incremental annual cost per relapse avoided with ozanimod vs each DMT.

Comparative efficacy and safety of ozanimod and ponesimod for relapsing multiple sclerosis: A matching-adjusted indirect comparison.

Background: Ozanimod and ponesimod are sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor modulators approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for treatment of relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS).

Development of the PREDS score to predict in-hospital mortality of patients with Ebola virus disease under advanced supportive care: Results from the EVISTA cohort in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Background: As mortality remains high for patients with Ebola virus disease (EVD) despite new treatment options, the ability to level up the provided supportive care and to predict the risk of death is of major importance. This analysis of the EVISTA cohort aims to describe advanced supportive care provided to EVD patients in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and to develop a simple risk score for predicting in-hospital death, called PREDS.

Methods: In this prospective cohort (NCT04815175), patients were recruited during the 10 EVD outbreak in the DRC across three Ebola Treatment Centers (ETCs).

Real-world effectiveness after initiating fremanezumab treatment in US patients with episodic and chronic migraine or difficult-to-treat migraine.

Background: Fremanezumab, a fully humanized monoclonal antibody (mAb; IgG2Δa) that selectively targets calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP), is approved for the preventive treatment of migraine in adults. The efficacy and safety of fremanezumab for migraine prevention have been demonstrated in randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials. Real-world effectiveness data are needed to complement clinical trial data.

Real-world effectiveness of fremanezumab in migraine patients initiating treatment in the United States: results from a retrospective chart study.

Background: The efficacy and tolerability of fremanezumab, a fully humanized monoclonal antibody (IgG2Δa) that selectively targets calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) and is approved for the preventive treatment of migraine in adults, have been demonstrated in randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials. Real-world data can further support those clinical trial data and demonstrate the full clinical benefits of fremanezumab. This chart review assessed the effectiveness of fremanezumab for improving clinical outcomes in adult patients with migraine treated according to real-world clinical practice.

Modeling the health and economic implications of adopting a 1-dose 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccination regimen in a high-income country setting: An analysis in the United Kingdom.

Although no human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is indicated for single-dose administration, some observational evidence suggests that a 1-dose regimen might reduce HPV infection risk to that achieved with 2 doses. This study estimated the potential health and economic outcomes associated with switching from a 2-dose HPV vaccination program for girls and boys aged 13-14 years to an off-label 9-valent (9vHPV), 1-dose regimen, accounting for the uncertainty of the effectiveness and durability of a single dose. A dynamic HPV transmission infection and disease model was adapted to the United Kingdom and included a probabilistic sensitivity analysis using estimated distributions for duration of protection of 1-dose and degree of protection of 1 relative to 2 doses.

Estimating the drivers of urban economic complexity and their connection to economic performance.

Estimating the capabilities, or inputs of production, that drive and constrain the economic development of urban areas has remained a challenging goal. We posit that capabilities are instantiated in the complexity and sophistication of urban activities, the know-how of individual workers, and the city-wide collective know-how. We derive a model that indicates how the value of these three quantities can be inferred from the probability that an individual in a city is employed in a given urban activity.

Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on adolescent vaccinations: projected time to reverse deficits in routine adolescent vaccination in the United States.

Objective: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant reductions in the administration of routinely recommended vaccines among adolescents in the US including tetanus, diphtheria, and acellular pertussis (Tdap); meningococcal (ACWY); and human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines. The extent to which these deficits could persist in 2021 and beyond is unclear. To address this knowledge gap, this study estimated the cumulative deficits of routine vaccine doses among US adolescents during the COVID-19 pandemic and estimated the time and effort needed to recover from those deficits.

Prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder in the United States: a systematic literature review.

Objective: This study synthesized evidence regarding the prevalence of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in the United States (US).

Methods: A systematic literature review (SLR) identified recently published (2015-2019) observational studies of PTSD prevalence in the US the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases. Eligible studies' most recent data were collected no earlier than 2013.

Causal inference and adjustment for reference-arm risk in indirect treatment comparison meta-analysis.

To illustrate that bias associated with indirect treatment comparison and network meta-analyses can be reduced by adjusting for outcomes on common reference arms. Approaches to adjusting for reference-arm effects are presented within a causal inference framework. Bayesian and Frequentist approaches are applied to three real data examples.

Comparative safety and efficacy of ozanimod versus fingolimod for relapsing multiple sclerosis.

Ozanimod and fingolimod are sphingosine 1-phosphate receptor-modulating therapies for relapsing multiple sclerosis. Comparative effectiveness was assessed by matching adjusted indirect comparisons of safety and efficacy trial outcomes at first-dose cardiac monitoring, 1 year and 2 years. After adjustment, baseline characteristics were similar.

Risk assessment and prediction of TD incidence in psychiatric patients taking concomitant antipsychotics: a retrospective data analysis.

Background: Tardive dyskinesia (TD) is a serious, often irreversible movement disorder caused by prolonged exposure to antipsychotics; identifying patients at risk for TD is critical to preventing it. Predictive models for the occurrence of TD can improve patient monitoring and inform implementation of counteractive interventions. This study aims to identify risk factors associated with TD and to develop a model using a retrospective data analysis to predict the incidence of TD among patients taking antipsychotic medications.

Effectiveness of first-line treatments in metastatic squamous non-small-cell lung cancer.

Background: Commonly used first-line (1L) chemotherapies for patients with advanced squamous-cell lung cancer (scc) include gemcitabine-platinum (gp), nab-paclitaxel-carboplatin (nabpc), and sb-paclitaxel-carboplatin (sbpc) regimens. However, no head-to-head trials have compared those treatments. In the present study, we compared the efficacy of 1L gp, nabpc, and sbpc in patients with scc and in patients with scc who subsequently received second-line (2L) immunotherapy.

Comparative Effectiveness of nab-Paclitaxel Plus Gemcitabine vs FOLFIRINOX in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer: A Retrospective Nationwide Chart Review in the United States.

Introduction: nab-Paclitaxel plus gemcitabine (nab-P + G) and FOLFIRINOX (FFX) are among the most common first-line (1L) therapies for metastatic adenocarcinoma of the pancreas (MPAC), but real-world data on their comparative effectiveness are limited.

Methods: This retrospective cohort study compared the efficacy and safety of 1L nab-P + G versus FFX, overall and under specific treatment sequences. Medical records were reviewed by 215 US physicians who provided information on MPAC patients who initiated 1L therapy with nab-P + G or FFX between April 1, 2015 and December 31, 2015.

Progression-free survival with endocrine-based therapies following progression on non-steroidal aromatase inhibitor among postmenopausal women with hormone receptor positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 negative metastatic breast cancer: a network meta-analysis.

Objective: To quantify the comparative efficacy of currently available endocrine-based therapies (ETs) for postmenopausal women with hormone receptor positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 negative (HR+/HER2-) metastatic breast cancer (mBC) after non-steroidal aromatase inhibitor (NSAI) progression.

Design: Network meta-analysis (NMA).

Methods: Randomized clinical trials of ETs for HR+/HER2- mBC were identified via a systematic literature review using MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Library and key conference proceedings.

Progression-free Survival With First-line Endocrine-based Therapies Among Postmenopausal Women With HR+/HER2- Metastatic Breast Cancer:: A Network Meta-analysis.

Purpose: The comparative efficacy of endocrine-based therapies (ETs) for hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HR+/HER2-) metastatic breast cancer (mBC) is not well characterized. This network meta-analysis (NMA) synthesized available evidence on progression-free survival (PFS) with first-line ETs for postmenopausal HR+/HER2- mBC.

Methods: A systematic literature review identified randomized controlled trials of first-line ETs.

Modeling the role of healthcare access inequalities in epidemic outcomes.

Urban areas, with large and dense populations, offer conditions that favor the emergence and spread of certain infectious diseases. One common feature of urban populations is the existence of large socioeconomic inequalities which are often mirrored by disparities in access to healthcare. Recent empirical evidence suggests that higher levels of socioeconomic inequalities are associated with worsened public health outcomes, including higher rates of sexually transmitted diseases (STD's) and lower life expectancy.

Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

Background: The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.

Methods: To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys.

A Generalized Entropy Measure of Within-Host Viral Diversity for Identifying Recent HIV-1 Infections.

There is a need for incidence assays that accurately estimate HIV incidence based on cross-sectional specimens. Viral diversity-based assays have shown promises but are not particularly accurate. We hypothesize that certain viral genetic regions are more predictive of recent infection than others and aim to improve assay accuracy by using classification algorithms that focus on highly informative regions (HIRs).