Inferring country-specific import risk of diseases from the world air transportation network.

Disease propagation between countries strongly depends on their effective distance, a measure derived from the world air transportation network (WAN). It reduces the complex spreading patterns of a pandemic to a wave-like propagation from the outbreak country, establishing a linear relationship to the arrival time of the unmitigated spread of a disease. However, in the early stages of an outbreak, what concerns decision-makers in countries is understanding the relative risk of active cases arriving in their country-essentially, the likelihood that an active case boarding an airplane at the outbreak location will reach them.

Enhancing global preparedness during an ongoing pandemic from partial and noisy data.

As the coronavirus disease 2019 spread globally, emerging variants such as B.1.1.

Estimating the share of SARS-CoV-2-immunologically naïve individuals in Germany up to June 2022.

After the winter of 2021/2022, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had reached a phase where a considerable number of people in Germany have been either infected with a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, vaccinated or both, the full extent of which was difficult to estimate, however, because infection counts suffer from under-reporting, and the overlap between the vaccinated and recovered subpopulations is unknown. Yet, reliable estimates regarding population-wide susceptibility were of considerable interest: Since both previous infection and vaccination reduce the risk of severe disease, a low share of immunologically naïve individuals lowers the probability of further severe outbreaks, given that emerging variants do not escape the acquired susceptibility reduction. Here, we estimate the share of immunologically naïve individuals by age group for each of the sixteen German federal states by integrating an infectious-disease model based on weekly incidences of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the national surveillance system and vaccine uptake, as well as assumptions regarding under-ascertainment.

Germany's fourth COVID-19 wave was mainly driven by the unvaccinated.

Background: While the majority of the German population was fully vaccinated at the time (about 65%), COVID-19 incidence started growing exponentially in October 2021 with about 41% of recorded new cases aged twelve or above being symptomatic breakthrough infections, presumably also contributing to the dynamics. So far, it remained elusive how significant this contribution was and whether targeted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) may have stopped the amplification of the crisis.

Methods: We develop and introduce a contribution matrix approach based on the next-generation matrix of a population-structured compartmental infectious disease model to derive contributions of respective inter- and intragroup infection pathways of unvaccinated and vaccinated subpopulations to the effective reproduction number and new infections, considering empirical data of vaccine efficacies against infection and transmission.

Evolutionary Impact of Size-Selective Harvesting on Shoaling Behavior: Individual-Level Mechanisms and Possible Consequences for Natural and Fishing Mortality.

AbstractIntensive and size-selective harvesting is an evolutionary driver of life history as well as individual behavioral traits. Yet whether and to what degree harvesting modifies the collective behavior of exploited species are largely unknown. We present a multigeneration harvest selection experiment with zebrafish, , as a model species to understand the effects of size-selective harvesting on shoaling behavior.

Acoustic and visual stimuli combined promote stronger responses to aerial predation in fish.

Bird predation poses a strong selection pressure on fish. Since birds must enter the water to catch fish, a combination of visual and mechano-acoustic cues (multimodal) characterize an immediate attack, while single cues (unimodal) may represent less dangerous disturbances. We investigated whether fish could use this information to distinguish between non-threatening and dangerous events and adjust their antipredator response to the perceived level of risk.

Fish waves as emergent collective antipredator behavior.

The collective behavior of animals has attracted considerable attention in recent years, with many studies exploring how local interactions between individuals can give rise to global group properties. The functional aspects of collective behavior are less well studied, especially in the field, and relatively few studies have investigated the adaptive benefits of collective behavior in situations where prey are attacked by predators. This paucity of studies is unsurprising because predator-prey interactions in the field are difficult to observe.

Collective predator evasion: Putting the criticality hypothesis to the test.

According to the criticality hypothesis, collective biological systems should operate in a special parameter region, close to so-called critical points, where the collective behavior undergoes a qualitative change between different dynamical regimes. Critical systems exhibit unique properties, which may benefit collective information processing such as maximal responsiveness to external stimuli. Besides neuronal and gene-regulatory networks, recent empirical data suggests that also animal collectives may be examples of self-organized critical systems.

Zealotry effects on opinion dynamics in the adaptive voter model.

The adaptive voter model has been widely studied as a conceptual model for opinion formation processes on time-evolving social networks. Past studies on the effect of zealots, i.e.