The Bayesian reservoir model of psychological regulation.

Social and behavioral scientists are increasingly interested the dynamics of the processes they study. Despite the wide array of processes studied, a fairly narrow set of models are applied to characterize dynamics within these processes. For social and behavioral research to take the next step in modeling dynamics, a wider variety of models need to be considered.

A protocol for enhancing the diagnostic accuracy and predictive validity of neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome: The utility of non-invasive clinical markers.

Every 15 minutes in the US, an infant exposed to opioids is born. Approximately 50% of these newborns will develop Neonatal Opioid Withdrawal Syndrome (NOWS) within 5 days of birth. It is not known which infants will develop NOWS, therefore, the current hospital standard-of-care dictates a 96-hour observational hold.

Associations between the resting EEG aperiodic slope and broad domains of cognitive ability.

Recent studies suggest that the EEG aperiodic exponent (often represented as a slope in log-log space) is sensitive to individual differences in momentary cognitive skills such as selective attention and information processing speed. However, findings are mixed, and most of the studies have focused on just a narrow range of cognitive domains. This study used an archival dataset to help clarify associations between resting aperiodic features and broad domains of cognitive ability, which vary in their demands on momentary processing.

Increased Pain Variability in Patients With Chronic Pain: A Role for Pain Catastrophizing.

Pain is an inherently negative perceptual and affective experience that acts as a warning system to protect the body from injury and illness. Pain unfolds over time and is influenced by myriad factors, making it highly dynamic. Despite this, statistical measures often treat any intraindividual variability in pain ratings as noise or error.

Testing the canalization hypothesis of attachment theory: Examining within-subject variation in attachment security.

According to the canalization hypothesis of attachment theory (Bowlby, 1973), people's trajectories of attachment security should become increasingly stable and buffered against external pressures as their relationships progress. The present study aimed to examine this hypothesis within the context of romantic relationships. We analyzed longitudinal data collected from 1,741 adults who completed between three and 24 survey assessments (average number of waves analyzed = 6.

The Family Lifestyles, Actions and Risk Education (FLARE) study: Protocol for a randomized controlled trial of a sun protection intervention for children of melanoma survivors.

Background: Children of parents who had melanoma are more likely to develop skin cancer themselves owing to shared familial risks. The prevention of sunburns and promotion of sun-protective behaviors are essential to control cancer among these children. The Family Lifestyles, Actions and Risk Education (FLARE) intervention will be delivered as part of a randomized controlled trial to support parent-child collaboration to improve sun safety outcomes among children of melanoma survivors.

Life events sometimes alter the trajectory of personality development: Effect sizes for 25 life events estimated using a large, frequently assessed sample.

Objective: Personality changes across the life span. Life events, such as marriage, becoming a parent, and retirement, have been proposed as facilitating personality growth via the adoption of novel social roles. However, empirical evidence linking life events with personality development is sparse.

Passive Sensor Data for Characterizing States of Increased Risk for Eating Disorder Behaviors in the Digital Phenotyping Arm of the Binge Eating Genetics Initiative: Protocol for an Observational Study.

Background: Data that can be easily, efficiently, and safely collected via cell phones and other digital devices have great potential for clinical application. Here, we focus on how these data could be used to refine and augment intervention strategies for binge eating disorder (BED) and bulimia nervosa (BN), conditions that lack highly efficacious, enduring, and accessible treatments. These data are easy to collect digitally but are highly complex and present unique methodological challenges that invite innovative solutions.

Retention, engagement, and binge-eating outcomes: Evaluating feasibility of the Binge-Eating Genetics Initiative study.

Objective: Using preliminary data from the Binge-Eating Genetics Initiative (BEGIN), we evaluated the feasibility of delivering an eating disorder digital app, Recovery Record, through smartphone and wearable technology for individuals with binge-type eating disorders.

Methods: Participants (n = 170; 96% female) between 18 and 45 years old with lived experience of binge-eating disorder or bulimia nervosa and current binge-eating episodes were recruited through the Recovery Record app. They were randomized into a Watch (first-generation Apple Watch + iPhone) or iPhone group; they engaged with the app over 30 days and completed baseline and endpoint surveys.

Behavioral and physiological stress responses: Within-person concordance during pregnancy.

During pregnancy, a woman's emotions can have longstanding implications for both her own and her child's health. Within-person emotional concordance refers to the simultaneous measurement of emotional responses across multiple levels of analysis. This method may provide insight into how pregnant women experience emotions in response to stress.

Do life events lead to enduring changes in adult attachment styles? A naturalistic longitudinal investigation.

Research has shown that a variety of life events are associated with changes in adult attachment styles. What is unknown, however, is the extent to which those changes are transient or enduring. To investigate this issue, we followed a sample of over 4,000 people in a multiwave longitudinal study in which people naturalistically experienced a variety of life events (e.

The Binge Eating Genetics Initiative (BEGIN): study protocol.

Background: The Binge Eating Genetics Initiative (BEGIN) is a multipronged investigation examining the interplay of genomic, gut microbiota, and behavioral factors in bulimia nervosa and binge-eating disorder.

Methods: 1000 individuals who meet current diagnostic criteria for bulimia nervosa or binge-eating disorder are being recruited to collect saliva samples for genotyping, fecal sampling for microbiota characterization, and recording of 30 days of passive data and behavioral phenotyping related to eating disorders using the app Recovery Record adapted for the Apple Watch.

Discussion: BEGIN examines the interplay of genomic, gut microbiota, and behavioral factors to explore etiology and develop predictors of risk, course of illness, and response to treatment in bulimia nervosa and binge-eating disorder.

Empirical Bayes Derivative Estimates.

A dynamic system is a set of interacting elements characterized by changes occurring over time. The estimation of derivatives is a mainstay for exploring dynamics of constructs, particularly when the dynamics are complicated or unknown. The presence of measurement error in many social science constructs frequently results in poor estimates of derivatives, as even modest proportions of measurement error can compound when estimating derivatives.

Integrating developmental theory and methodology: Using derivatives to articulate change theories, models, and inferences.

Matching theories about growth, development, and change to appropriate statistical models can present a challenge, which can result in misuse, misinterpretation, and underutilization of different analytical approaches. We discuss the use of --- the change of a construct with respect to changes in another construct. Derivatives provide a common language linking developmental theory and statistical methods.

Getting less of what you want: reductions in statistical power and increased bias when categorizing medication adherence data.

Medication adherence is thought to be the principal clinical predictor of positive clinical outcomes, not only for serious mental illnesses such as schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, or depression, but also for physical conditions such as diabetes. Consequently, research on medication often looks not only at medication condition (e.g.

Trait Stress Resistance and Dynamic Stress Dissipation on Health and Well-Being: The Reservoir Model.

Daily data from the NDHWB (n = 783; age range 37-90) were analyzed to produce 'dynamic characteristic' estimates of stress input and dissipation. These were used in multi-level modeling (with age and trait stress resistance) to predict depression and health trajectories. Main effects suggest that dissipation and stress resistance predict lower depression and better health, but lower stress input was only related to lower depression.

The reservoir model: a differential equation model of psychological regulation.

Differential equation models can be used to describe the relationships between the current state of a system of constructs (e.g., stress) and how those constructs are changing (e.

Maternal depressive symptomatology and child behavior: transactional relationship with simultaneous bidirectional coupling.

The present study investigated reciprocal relationships between adolescent mothers and their children's well-being through an analysis of the coupling relationship of mothers' depressive symptomatology and children's internalizing and externalizing behaviors. Unlike studies using discrete time analyses, the present study used dynamical systems to model time continuously, which allowed for the study of dynamic, transactional effects between members of each dyad. Findings provided evidence of coupling between maternal depressive symptoms and children's behaviors.

Emotion control during later life: The relationship between global perceptions and daily experience.

The extent to which individuals generally believe that they can successfully manage their emotions is related to healthy coping and well-being. Nevertheless, it is unclear how this general belief is related to daily affective experiences. In the current study, the relationship between global emotion control beliefs and daily affect reports across 56 days were assessed in a sample of 298 older adults.

Resilience-as-process: negative affect, stress, and coupled dynamical systems.

Resilience is often considered both a trait and a process. The current study proposes a new way to conceptualize resilience-as-process based on dynamical systems modeling, which allows researchers to capture the process of stress management in real time. Coupled damped linear oscillator models succinctly describe daily stress and negative affect in terms of developmental forces (e.

Estimating Dynamical Systems: Derivative Estimation Hints From Sir Ronald A. Fisher.

The fitting of dynamical systems to psychological data offers the promise of addressing new and innovative questions about how people change over time. One method of fitting dynamical systems is to estimate the derivatives of a time series and then examine the relationships between derivatives using a differential equation model. One common approach for estimating derivatives, Local Linear Approximation (LLA), produces estimates with correlated errors.

Using derivative estimates to describe intraindividual variability at multiple time scales.

The study of intraindividual variability is central to the study of individuals in psychology. Previous research has related the variance observed in repeated measurements (time series) of individuals to trait-like measures that are logically related. Intraindividual measures, such as intraindividual standard deviation or the coefficient of variation, are likely to be incomplete representations of intraindividual variability.

Modeling Individual Damped Linear Oscillator Processes with Differential Equations: Using Surrogate Data Analysis to Estimate the Smoothing Parameter.

Among the many methods available for modeling intraindividual time series, differential equation modeling has several advantages that make it promising for applications to psychological data. One interesting differential equation model is that of the damped linear oscillator (DLO), which can be used to model variables that have a tendency to fluctuate around some typical, or equilibrium, value. Methods available for fitting the damped linear oscillator model using differential equation modeling can yield biased parameter estimates when applied to univariate time series.

Mood Oscillations and Coupling Between Mood and Weather in Patients with Rapid Cycling Bipolar Disorder.

Rapid Cycling Bipolar Disorder (RCBD) outpatients completed twice-daily mood self-ratings for 3 consecutive months. These ratings were matched with local measurements of atmospheric pressure, cloud cover, and temperature. Several alternative second order differential equation models were fit to the data in which mood oscillations in RCBD were allowed to be linearly coupled with daily weather patterns.