Using prognosis to guide inclusion criteria, define standardised endpoints and stratify follow-up in active surveillance for prostate cancer.

Objectives: To test whether using disease prognosis can inform a rational approach to active surveillance (AS) for early prostate cancer.

Patients And Methods: We previously developed the Cambridge Prognostics Groups (CPG) classification, a five-tiered model that uses prostate-specific antigen (PSA), Grade Group and Stage to predict cancer survival outcomes. We applied the CPG model to a UK and a Swedish prostate cancer cohort to test differences in prostate cancer mortality (PCM) in men managed conservatively or by upfront treatment in CPG2 and 3 (which subdivides the intermediate-risk classification) vs CPG1 (low-risk).