Synchronization in Cycles of China and India During Recent Crises: A Markov Switching Analysis.

We study the impact of recent crisis episodes viz the Great Recession of 2007-09, the Euro Area crisis of 2010-12 and the COVID-19 pandemic of 2020-21 on the Emerging Market Economies (EMEs) of China and India using data from January, 1986 till June, 2021. A Markov-switching (MS) analysis is applied to discern economy-specific cycles/regimes and common cycles/regimes in the growth rates of the economies. We apply the univariate MS Autoregressive (MS-AR) model to characterize country-specific negative growth, moderate growth and high growth regimes of China and India.

Regime Shifts in the Behaviour of International Currency and Equity Markets: A Markov-Switching Analysis.

This paper examines regime switching behaviour and dynamic linkages among currency and equity markets of Eurozone, India, Japan and U.S. using a Markov-switching framework.

Monetary policy framework in India.

In 2016, the monetary policy framework moved towards flexible inflation targeting and a six member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) was constituted for setting the policy rate. With this step towards modernization of the monetary policy process, India joined the set of countries that have adopted inflation targeting as their monetary policy framework. The Consumer Price Index (CPI combined) inflation target was set by the Government of India at 4% with ± 2% tolerance band for the period from August 5, 2016 to March 31, 2021.