Predictive modeling to identify potential participants of a disease management program hypertension.

Background: Based on the premise of limited health-care resources, decision-makers pursue to allocate disease management programs (DMP) more targeted.

Methods: Based on routine data from a private health insurance company, a prediction model was developed to estimate the individual risk for future in-patient stays of patients eligible for a DMP Hypertension. The database included anonymous claims data of 38,284 policyholders with a diagnosis in the year 2013.