Simulation of winter wheat response to variable sowing dates and densities in a high-yielding environment.

Crop multi-model ensembles (MME) have proven to be effective in increasing the accuracy of simulations in modelling experiments. However, the ability of MME to capture crop responses to changes in sowing dates and densities has not yet been investigated. These management interventions are some of the main levers for adapting cropping systems to climate change.

Crop loss identification at field parcel scale using satellite remote sensing and machine learning.

Identifying crop loss at field parcel scale using satellite images is challenging: first, crop loss is caused by many factors during the growing season; second, reliable reference data about crop loss are lacking; third, there are many ways to define crop loss. This study investigates the feasibility of using satellite images to train machine learning (ML) models to classify agricultural field parcels into those with and without crop loss. The reference data for this study was provided by Finnish Food Authority (FFA) containing crop loss information of approximately 1.

Comparative Analysis of Phenology Algorithms of the Spring Barley Model in APSIM 7.9 and APSIM Next Generation: A Case Study for High Latitudes.

Phenology algorithms in crop growth models have inevitable systematic errors and uncertainties. In this study, the phenology simulation algorithms in APSIM classical (APSIM 7.9) and APSIM next generation (APSIM-NG) were compared for spring barley models at high latitudes.

Implications of crop model ensemble size and composition for estimates of adaptation effects and agreement of recommendations.

Climate change is expected to severely affect cropping systems and food production in many parts of the world unless local adaptation can ameliorate these impacts. Ensembles of crop simulation models can be useful tools for assessing if proposed adaptation options are capable of achieving target yields, whilst also quantifying the share of uncertainty in the simulated crop impact resulting from the crop models themselves. Although some studies have analysed the influence of ensemble size on model outcomes, the effect of ensemble composition has not yet been properly appraised.

Global wheat production with 1.5 and 2.0°C above pre-industrial warming.

Efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C in relation to the pre-industrial level are under way, in accordance with the 2015 Paris Agreement. However, most impact research on agriculture to date has focused on impacts of warming >2°C on mean crop yields, and many previous studies did not focus sufficiently on extreme events and yield interannual variability. Here, with the latest climate scenarios from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project, we evaluated the impacts of the 2015 Paris Agreement range of global warming (1.

Multimodel ensembles improve predictions of crop-environment-management interactions.

A recent innovation in assessment of climate change impact on agricultural production has been to use crop multimodel ensembles (MMEs). These studies usually find large variability between individual models but that the ensemble mean (e-mean) and median (e-median) often seem to predict quite well. However, few studies have specifically been concerned with the predictive quality of those ensemble predictors.

Erratum: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2017.

Erratum: The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

This corrects the article DOI: 10.1038/nplants.2017.

The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions.

Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C.

Use of crop simulation modelling to aid ideotype design of future cereal cultivars.

A major challenge of the 21st century is to achieve food supply security under a changing climate and roughly a doubling in food demand by 2050 compared to present, the majority of which needs to be met by the cereals wheat, rice, maize, and barley. Future harvests are expected to be especially threatened through increased frequency and severity of extreme events, such as heat waves and drought, that pose particular challenges to plant breeders and crop scientists. Process-based crop models developed for simulating interactions between genotype, environment, and management are widely applied to assess impacts of environmental change on crop yield potentials, phenology, water use, etc.

Proteomic identification of allergenic seed proteins, napin and cruciferin, from cold-pressed rapeseed oils.

In Finland and France atopic children commonly react to seeds of oilseed rape and turnip rape in skin prick tests (SPT) and open food challenges. These seeds are not as such in dietary use and therefore the routes of sensitization are unknown. Possible allergens were extracted from commercial cold-pressed and refined rapeseed oils and identified by gel-based tandem nanoflow liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS).

Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one.

Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun.

Changes in time of sowing, flowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change.

The phenological development of cereal crops from emergence through flowering to maturity is largely controlled by temperature, but also affected by day length and potential physiological stresses. Responses may vary between species and varieties. Climate change will affect the timing of cereal crop development, but exact changes will also depend on changes in varieties as affected by plant breeding and variety choices.

Antibodies binding to citrullinated telopeptides of type I and type II collagens and to mutated citrullinated vimentin synergistically predict the development of seropositive rheumatoid arthritis.

Objective: To assess whether antibodies binding to citrullinated carboxy-terminal telopeptides of type I and type II collagens (TELO-I and TELO-II, respectively), mutated citrullinated vimentin (MCV) and cyclic citrullinated peptides (CCP) predict the development of rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

Methods: A case-control study was nested within a Finnish cohort of 36 000 adults who had neither arthritis nor a history of arthritis at baseline examination in 1966-1972. Among them, 151 subjects developed seropositive (ie, positive for rheumatoid factor) RA, and 67 subjects developed seronegative RA by late 1989.

Latex medical gloves: time for a reappraisal.

Many hospitals have implemented policies to restrict or ban the use of devices made of natural rubber latex (NRL) in healthcare as precautionary measures against the perceived risk of NRL allergy. Changes in glove technology, progress in measuring the specific allergenic potential of gloves and a dramatic decrease in the prevalence of NRL allergies after interventions and education prompted us to revisit the basis for justifiable glove selection policies. The published Anglophone literature from 1990 to 2010 was reviewed for original articles and reviews dealing with the barrier and performance properties of NRL and synthetic gloves and the role of glove powder.

Intradermal cytosine-phosphate-guanosine treatment reduces lung inflammation but induces IFN-γ-mediated airway hyperreactivity in a murine model of natural rubber latex allergy.

Asthma and other allergic diseases are continuously increasing, causing considerable economic and sociologic burden to society. The hygiene hypothesis proposes that lack of microbial T helper (Th) 1-like stimulation during early childhood leads to increased Th2-driven allergic disorders later in life. Immunostimulatory cytosine-phosphate-guanosine (CpG)-oligodeoxynucleotide motifs are candidate molecules for immunotherapeutic studies, as they have been shown to shift the Th2 response toward the Th1 direction and reduce allergic symptoms.

Systematically missing confounders in individual participant data meta-analysis of observational cohort studies.

One difficulty in performing meta-analyses of observational cohort studies is that the availability of confounders may vary between cohorts, so that some cohorts provide fully adjusted analyses while others only provide partially adjusted analyses. Commonly, analyses of the association between an exposure and disease either are restricted to cohorts with full confounder information, or use all cohorts but do not fully adjust for confounding. We propose using a bivariate random-effects meta-analysis model to use information from all available cohorts while still adjusting for all the potential confounders.

Greenhouse impact due to the use of combustible fuels: life cycle viewpoint and relative radiative forcing commitment.

Extensive information on the greenhouse impacts of various human actions is important in developing effective climate change mitigation strategies. The greenhouse impacts of combustible fuels consist not only of combustion emissions but also of emissions from the fuel production chain and possible effects on the ecosystem carbon storages. It is important to be able to assess the combined, total effect of these different emissions and to express the results in a comprehensive way.

Sensitization to turnip rape and oilseed rape in children with atopic dermatitis: a case-control study.

Turnip rape and oilseed rape 2S albumins are new allergens in children with atopic dermatitis suspected for food allergy. We recently found that 11% (206/1887) of these children had a positive skin prick test to seeds of oilseed rape (Brassica napus) and/or turnip rape (Brassica rapa). In the present case-control study we examined how the children with atopic dermatitis sensitized to turnip rape and oilseed rape had been breast-fed and whether they had some common sensitization pattern to certain foods or pollens.

Latex allergy: low prevalence of immunoglobulin E to highly purified proteins Hev b 2 and Hev b 13.

Background: Hevea brasiliensis (Hev b) 2 and Hev b 13 have recently been identified as major latex allergens by detecting specific IgE antibodies in >50% of sera from Hev b latex-allergic individuals.

Objective: We assessed the prevalence rates for sensitization to extensively purified latex allergens in patients from three diverse geographical areas.

Methods: Native Hev b 2, Hev b 5, Hev b 6.

Latex allergy: the sum quantity of four major allergens shows the allergenic potential of medical gloves.

Background: Assessment of allergenic potential of medical devices made of natural rubber latex (NRL) requires the measurement of concentrations of specific allergenic proteins or polypeptides eluting from rubber.

Methods: Four NRL allergens (Hev b 1, 3, 5, and 6.02) were quantified in all medical glove brands marketed in Finland in 1999, 2001, and 2003 (n = 208) by a capture enzyme immunoassay.

Autoantibodies binding to citrullinated telopeptide of type II collagen and to cyclic citrullinated peptides predict synergistically the development of seropositive rheumatoid arthritis.

Objectives: To find out whether autoantibodies to citrullinated telopeptides of type I and II collagens and to cyclic citrullinated peptides (CCPs) predict the development of rheumatoid arthritis (RA).

Methods: A case-control study (matched for sex, age and municipality) was nested within a Finnish cohort of 19072 adults who had neither arthritis nor a history of it at the baseline examination during 1973-7. 124 subjects developed RA by late 1989, and of these, 89 were positive for rheumatoid factor (RF).