[Prediction of end of lockdown post-peak of cases in first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile].

Introduction: The results of mandatory confinement have been detrimental in several respects. Nonetheless, they have resulted in reducing the number of active cases of COVID-19. Chile has begun the de-escalation and needs to know the best time to end the restrictions.

Which curve provides the best explanation of the growth in confirmed COVID-19 cases in Chile?

Objective: to explore the best type of curve or trend model that could explain the epidemiological behavior of the infection by COVID-19 and derive the possible causes that contribute to explain the corresponding model and the health implications that can be inferred.

Method: data were collected from the COVID-19 reports of the Department of Epidemiology, Ministry of Health, Chile. Curve adjustment studies were developed with the data in four different models: quadratic, exponential, simple exponential smoothing, and double exponential smoothing.