Severe outcomes of malaria in children under time-varying exposure.

In malaria epidemiology, interpolation frameworks based on available observations are critical for policy decisions and interpreting disease burden. Updating our understanding of the empirical evidence across different populations, settings, and timeframes is crucial to improving inference for supporting public health. Here, via individual-based modeling, we evaluate a large, multicountry, contemporary Plasmodium falciparum severe malaria dataset to better understand the relationship between prevalence and incidence of malaria pediatric hospitalizations - a proxy of malaria severe outcomes- in East-Africa.

Association of sociocultural stressors with bipolar disorder onset in Puerto Rican youth growing up as members of a minoritized ethnic group: results from the Boricua Youth Longitudinal Study.

Background: The development of bipolar disorder is currently explained by a complex interaction of genetic and environmental factors. Less is known regarding the influence of sociocultural factors. This study aims to evaluate the incidence and impact of sociocultural factors on bipolar disorder onset in two comparable samples of youth growing up in different social settings.

Human Trypanosoma cruzi chronic infection leads to individual level steady-state parasitemia: Implications for drug-trial optimization in Chagas disease.

Currently available drugs against Trypanosoma cruzi infection, which causes 12000 deaths annually, have limitations in their efficacy, safety and tolerability. The evaluation of therapeutic responses to available and new compounds is based on parasite detection in the bloodstream but remains challenging because a substantial proportion of infected individuals have undetectable parasitemia even when using diagnostic tools with the highest accuracy. We characterize parasite dynamics which might impact drug efficacy assessments in chronic Chagas by analyzing pre- and post-treatment quantitative-PCR data obtained from blood samples collected regularly over a year.

High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in long-term care facilities.

Background: Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the most vulnerable in these settings is essential to monitor and improve mitigation strategies.

Methods: We evaluate the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2-mRNA vaccine to individuals older than 64 years residing in LTCFs in Catalonia, Spain.

Near real-time surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic with incomplete data.

When responding to infectious disease outbreaks, rapid and accurate estimation of the epidemic trajectory is critical. However, two common data collection problems affect the reliability of the epidemiological data in real time: missing information on the time of first symptoms, and retrospective revision of historical information, including right censoring. Here, we propose an approach to construct epidemic curves in near real time that addresses these two challenges by 1) imputation of dates of symptom onset for reported cases using a dynamically-estimated "backward" reporting delay conditional distribution, and 2) adjustment for right censoring using the NobBS software package to nowcast cases by date of symptom onset.

Correction: Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.

A nowcasting framework for correcting for reporting delays in malaria surveillance.

Time lags in reporting to national surveillance systems represent a major barrier for the control of infectious diseases, preventing timely decision making and resource allocation. This issue is particularly acute for infectious diseases like malaria, which often impact rural and remote communities the hardest. In Guyana, a country located in South America, poor connectivity among remote malaria-endemic regions hampers surveillance efforts, making reporting delays a key challenge for elimination.

The association between gold mining and malaria in Guyana: a statistical inference and time-series analysis.

Background: Guyana reported a significant rise in malaria between 2008 and 2014. As there was no evidence of impairment of national malaria control strategies, public health authorities attributed the surge to a temporal increase in gold mining activity in forested regions. However, systematic analysis of this association is lacking because of the difficulties associated with collecting reliable data for both malaria and mining.

Estimating lengths-of-stay of hospitalised COVID-19 patients using a non-parametric model: a case study in Galicia (Spain).

Estimating the lengths-of-stay (LoS) of hospitalised COVID-19 patients is key for predicting the hospital beds' demand and planning mitigation strategies, as overwhelming the healthcare systems has critical consequences for disease mortality. However, accurately mapping the time-to-event of hospital outcomes, such as the LoS in the intensive care unit (ICU), requires understanding patient trajectories while adjusting for covariates and observation bias, such as incomplete data. Standard methods, such as the Kaplan-Meier estimator, require prior assumptions that are untenable given current knowledge.

High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Long-Term Care Facilities.

Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Measuring the vaccine effectiveness among the most vulnerable in these settings is essential to monitor and improve mitigation strategies. We evaluated the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccines to individuals older than 64 years residing in LTCFs in Catalonia, a region of Spain.

High coverage COVID-19 mRNA vaccination rapidly controls SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Long-Term Care Facilities.

Residents of Long-Term Care Facilities (LTCFs) represent a major share of COVID-19 deaths worldwide. Information on vaccine effectiveness in these settings is essential to improve mitigation strategies, but evidence remains limited. To evaluate the early effect of the administration of BNT162b2 mRNA vaccines in LTCFs, we monitored subsequent SARS-CoV-2 documented infections and deaths in Catalonia, a region of Spain, and compared them to counterfactual model predictions from February 6th to March 28th, 2021, the subsequent time period after which 70% of residents were fully vaccinated.

Lockdowns result in changes in human mobility which may impact the epidemiologic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

In response to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, unprecedented travel restrictions and stay-at-home orders were enacted around the world. Ultimately, the public's response to announcements of lockdowns-defined as restrictions on both local movement or long distance travel-will determine how effective these kinds of interventions are. Here, we evaluate the effects of lockdowns on human mobility and simulate how these changes may affect epidemic spread by analyzing aggregated mobility data from mobile phones.

Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic.

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, predictions of international outbreaks were largely based on imported cases from Wuhan, China, potentially missing imports from other cities. We provide a method, combining daily COVID-19 prevalence and flight passenger volume, to estimate importations from 18 Chinese cities to 43 international destinations, including 26 in Africa. Global case importations from China in early January came primarily from Wuhan, but the inferred source shifted to other cities in mid-February, especially for importations to African destinations.

Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, Rt.

Estimation of the effective reproductive number Rt is important for detecting changes in disease transmission over time. During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, policy makers and public health officials are using Rt to assess the effectiveness of interventions and to inform policy. However, estimation of Rt from available data presents several challenges, with critical implications for the interpretation of the course of the pandemic.

Practical considerations for measuring the effective reproductive number, .

Estimation of the effective reproductive number, , is important for detecting changes in disease transmission over time. During the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers and public health officials are using to assess the effectiveness of interventions and to inform policy. However, estimation of from available data presents several challenges, with critical implications for the interpretation of the course of the pandemic.

Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic.

Early in the COVID-19 pandemic, when cases were predominantly reported in the city of Wuhan, China, local outbreaks in Europe, North America, and Asia were largely predicted from imported cases on flights from Wuhan, potentially missing imports from other key source cities. Here, we account for importations from Wuhan and from other cities in China, combining COVID-19 prevalence estimates in 18 Chinese cities with estimates of flight passenger volume to predict for each day between early December 2019 to late February 2020 the number of cases exported from China. We predict that the main source of global case importation in early January was Wuhan, but due to the Wuhan lockdown and the rapid spread of the virus, the main source of case importation from mid February became Chinese cities outside of Wuhan.

Quantifying bias of COVID-19 prevalence and severity estimates in Wuhan, China that depend on reported cases in international travelers.

Risk of COVID-19 infection in Wuhan has been estimated using imported case counts of international travelers, often under the assumption that all cases in travelers are ascertained. Recent work indicates variation among countries in detection capacity for imported cases. Singapore has historically had very strong epidemiological surveillance and contact-tracing capacity and has shown in the COVID-19 epidemic evidence of a high sensitivity of case detection.

Estimating clinical severity of COVID-19 from the transmission dynamics in Wuhan, China.

As of 29 February 2020 there were 79,394 confirmed cases and 2,838 deaths from COVID-19 in mainland China. Of these, 48,557 cases and 2,169 deaths occurred in the epicenter, Wuhan. A key public health priority during the emergence of a novel pathogen is estimating clinical severity, which requires properly adjusting for the case ascertainment rate and the delay between symptoms onset and death.

Using observational data to quantify bias of traveller-derived COVID-19 prevalence estimates in Wuhan, China.

Background: The incidence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan, China, has been estimated using imported case counts of international travellers, generally under the assumptions that all cases of the disease in travellers have been ascertained and that infection prevalence in travellers and residents is the same. However, findings indicate variation among locations in the capacity for detection of imported cases. Singapore has had very strong epidemiological surveillance and contact tracing capacity during previous infectious disease outbreaks and has consistently shown high sensitivity of case-detection during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Identifying Locations with Possible Undetected Imported Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Cases by Using Importation Predictions.

Cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection exported from mainland China could lead to self-sustained outbreaks in other countries. By February 2020, several countries were reporting imported SARS-CoV-2 cases. To contain the virus, early detection of imported SARS-CoV-2 cases is critical.

[Evaluation of the autochthonous transmission risk of Zika virus and other emerging mosquito-borne viral diseases in Catalonia (Spain)].

The recent Zika virus epidemic has highlighted the potential risk of introducing the arbovirosis to Europe, especially within the Mediterranean region where the vector, Aedes albopictus, has become established as an invasive species. In this context, a comprehensive evaluation of the risk of introducing the Zika virus and other mosquito-borne viruses of public health importance in Catalonia (Spain) was carried out. This article summarises the results of the preliminary assessment and the recommendations for the public health preparedness and response plan against the threat posed by these emerging diseases.

Evaluation of three commercially-available chikungunya virus immunoglobulin G immunoassays.

The emergence of chikungunya virus in the Americas means the affected population is at risk of developing severe, chronic, rheumatologic disease, even months after acute infection. Accurate diagnostic methods for past infections are essential for differential diagnosis and consequence management. This study evaluated three commercially-available chikungunya Immunoglobulin G immunoassays by comparing them to an in-house Enzyme-Linked ImmunoSorbent Assay conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, Georgia, United States).

First reported enterovirus D68 infection in pediatric patients from the Caribbean region: evidence of spread from the U.S. outbreak.

The 2014 enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) outbreak in the United States raised concerns about the introduction of the virus in the Caribbean region. The objective of this study was to provide rapid evidence of the introduction of EV-D68 strains in the Caribbean region during the 2014 outbreak in the United States, using a relatively simple phylogenetic approach. From October 2014 to May 2015, four EV-D68 cases from two countries (Bermuda and Dominica) were detected at the regional referral laboratory at the Caribbean Public Health Agency (Port of Spain, Trinidad and Tobago) based on molecular testing of respiratory specimens.

Pyronaridine-artesunate granules versus artemether-lumefantrine crushed tablets in children with Plasmodium falciparum malaria: a randomized controlled trial.

Background: Children are most vulnerable to malaria. A pyronaridine-artesunate pediatric granule formulation is being developed for the treatment of uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria.

Methods: This phase III, multi-center, comparative, open-label, parallel-group, controlled clinical trial included patients aged ≤12 years, bodyweight ≥5 to <25 kg, with a reported history of fever at inclusion or in the previous 24 h and microscopically-confirmed uncomplicated P.